趋势?拐点!

如临深渊

趋势?拐点!

来自：MACD论坛(bbs.shudaoyoufang.com) 作者：如临深渊 浏览：10369 回复：92

趋势的尽头是拐点,拐点过后是趋势!
且看下图

[ Last edited by 如临深渊 on 2005-7-16 at 01:33 ]

如临深渊

再看下图!

如临深渊

上面是完全由下降通道出现拐点后,引起的一波,波澜壮阔的上攻.
下面再举个在上攻趋势中再次出现拐点改变上攻趋势斜率,引起的上攻.

如临深渊

再看

如临深渊

再看!

如临深渊

接着!

如临深渊

拐点和趋势是一对说不清理还乱的矛盾.上面的上攻图形无不包含了拐点和趋势.问题是如何分清这是一根拐点k线?
特别欢迎biobock兄,冷秋兄,无弦琴兄,小y,YLIT,小妖等等好朋友谈谈看法.

哈哈哈哈哈哈.....

[ Last edited by 如临深渊 on 2005-7-16 at 00:56 ]

如临深渊

最好谁能举出一些反例.

哈哈哈哈哈....

renb70

您这样的趋势，这样的拐点有用吗

[ Last edited by renb70 on 2005-7-16 at 00:59 ]

如临深渊

Originally posted by renb70 at 2005-7-16 00:58
您这样的趋势，这样的拐点有用吗

哈哈哈....

有没有用以赚钱为准.

请看上面图的后面的走势就知道了.

哈哈哈....

renb70

为什么现在的600756这么衰

如临深渊

Originally posted by renb70 at 2005-7-16 01:14
为什么现在的600756这么衰

这是拐点吗?

何为拐点?就是拐点k线出现后,上升趋势也同时成立!

600756有这条件吗?

没有啊.这不是拐点!

分辩不清是要吃大亏的.

模棱两可要不得.

哈哈哈哈哈哈.....

如临深渊

Originally posted by renb70 at 2005-7-16 01:14
为什么现在的600756这么衰

趋势,有大趋势和小趋势,拐点也是一样.

renb70

Originally posted by 如临深渊 at 2005-7-16 01:30

趋势,有大趋势和小趋势,拐点也是一样.

同意，可是就凭您的几副图几个指标就能判断是大趋势或者小趋势的拐点吗

如临深渊

Originally posted by renb70 at 2005-7-16 01:50

同意，可是就凭您的几副图几个指标就能判断是大趋势或者小趋势的拐点吗

非也,非也.

这是大家一起研究,决非是我如某在上课.

他山石,可攻玉.我不过只是列出一些思路,

至于判断是大趋势或者小趋势的拐点的方法,还得看各自的领悟,

我这里不可能有结论,也不会有结论.

在股市凡是靠公开的,有结论的东西,那是赚不到钱的.

哈哈哈.....泰山不让细土,方为之大,大海不绝溪流,才显其深.

biobuck

In my opinion, picking exact 拐点 is very difficult.  One can get lucky once a while but to be able to routinely pick the 拐点 is impossible.  拐点 can only be identified after the fact.  There are not any TA tools available that can reliable predict 拐点, not I know of.  Candle pattern, resistance/support level can help some, but you always need confirmation.  Without confirmation you are as good as guessing.  

I used to try that a lot but not any more.  Picking exact bottom/top is a very satifictory experience.   It tends to make you feel good, it feeds your ego, it makes you feel invinsible and smart.  But that is very dangerous for a trader.  As a trade we need to be humble every minute and every second.  If not, market will do that for you.  I believe that techinical analysis (TA) is more about trend follwoing than identify 拐点.  What is the possibility of a car heading to you at 160km/hour will stop and reverse the next second?  I don't want make that guess.  I will assume it will continue toward me and I have to take action to avoid it.   If a trend is estabolished, it is likely to continue until it is ACTUALLY stopped and reverted.  I definitely want to MAKE SURE (confirmation) that the car has stopped and reversed .  

If I can pull in 50% of the absolute move of a trend, I am happy!  I will let other traders to take the glory of picking the correct top and bottom.    Just my $0.02.   Let's discuss!  Xiao Ru rises a very good question here.


Good Luck!

股潮

没有搞懂趋势以前,任何行动都带着一定的盲目性。

股潮

真正的拐点从K线上看，都是很可怕的。那为什么要进，要换个角度考虑问题。

股潮

作股票最重要的是资金管理，趋势和拐点是其次的，不懂得资金管理的人给他再好的趋势和拐点也白费，何况世界上并没有100%成功的买点！再重说一遍，一，懂得资金管理，二，懂得控制风险，三，会找成功率高的拐点，四，不同市道用不同加码和卖出方法。。。。。不要相信每一个机会都会使你暴富。。。道理简单懂者少。。。

淡雪

Let's discuss!  Xiao Ru rises a very good question here