一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

So, like I said most traders took the day off since there was absolutely nothing going on. (In actuality, this is my 9th post today, the first one being drafted before 4 in the morning, and today will definitely be record readership on the site).

Anyway, the graph below shows the S&P 500 in candlestick form. As I said, the close today was precisely at the retracement level. Spooky.

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As for the $UTIL, today's action gave stronger credence to the lower of my two possible necklines, because the high today exactly matched the level of the red line. I had 1,000 SDP, but I bought 500 more. I love this trade.

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Time for more Fibonacci spookiness. Here is the IWM in candlestick form. Today's high precisely matched - - not 99.99% close, but 100% - - one of the retracement levels. In addition, having this gigantic black body is hardly bullish, in spite of the Dow's nearly 300 point rise. (And let's remember, the NASDAQ 100 actually closed in the red!)

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One thing that has me a little skittish and confounded is the EUR/USD and its relation to oil and gold. Looking at this chart, I am thinking EUR/USD is preparing to push higher (meaning, of course, the dollar would move lower). This would mean higher oil (and, in all likelihood, higher gold). I bought a ton of calls on Friday based on this notion, but it didn't work out as well as I thought (although I dumped most of my OIH calls first thing this morning for a very nice profit). In any case, this graph bears continued watching.

hefeiddd

One thing that has me a little skittish and confounded is the EUR/USD and its relation to oil and gold. Looking at this chart, I am thinking EUR/USD is preparing to push higher (meaning, of course, the dollar would move lower). This would mean higher oil (and, in all likelihood, higher gold). I bought a ton of calls on Friday based on this notion, but it didn't work out as well as I thought (although I dumped most of my OIH calls first thing this morning for a very nice profit). In any case, this graph bears continued watching.

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Setting that aside, even the most elementary technical analysis would affirm that the world of commodities is in a bearish mode, and this major trendline, shattered last week, spells lower prices ahead.

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Using candlesticks once again, we can see a bearish engulfing pattern on OIH. I was really positioning for a robust move on the OIH up to, say, about $183. That obviously didn't happen.

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Phew. OK, that's enough. No more posts today. Thanks for all the terrific comments, and I look forward to seeing you here again bright and early on Tuesday!

Posted: 02:07 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 08, 2008 - 04:56 上午Heed These LinesThese are short-term Fibonacci retracements on IWM, SPY, and DIA. Pay attention to these levels. One cool feature of the Original/Present chart tab is that you can see where current prices are vis a vis these lines once the market opens by clicking on the Present tab for any given chart.

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Posted: 04:56 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 04, 2008 - 11:56 上午Russell 2000 at Very Strong SupportIt's an hour before the close. The $RUT is at very formidable support. I am perhaps going to take some index profits at these levels.

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Posted: 11:56 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

九月 03, 2008 - 04:52 下午When to Take Profits?Let me start off by saying this - - - if and when the S&P 500 finally breaks 1261, that level is going to change from our worst enemy to our best friend, because it is going to represent a wall of resistance that will be very tough for the bulls to overcome. Because this level is getting hit again, and again, and again............and again..........it is getting stronger all the time. That is bad for us now, because support is strengthening all the time. But if anything manages to act as a catalyst to finally push the S&P below this level, we have a new best friend. Time will tell.
There was a time on Wednesday when it looked like the market might finally crack, but no such luck. The thick red line you see for the $INDU is continuing to do a yeoman's job as support.

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Whereas IWM is clinging like iron to a magnet to its own Fibonacci level, which represented the exact midpoint between today's open and close.

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Most mesmerizing of all, of course, is the S&P 500 itself. This is, by my count, the eighth instance of the market trying to push below this level and failing to do so. If 1261 is breached, you are going to see an incredible rush for the exits.

hefeiddd

Most mesmerizing of all, of course, is the S&P 500 itself. This is, by my count, the eighth instance of the market trying to push below this level and failing to do so. If 1261 is breached, you are going to see an incredible rush for the exits.

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A closer look via minute bars amplifies this point.

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Today was a very good day, however. I was especially delighted with the third day in a row of a meaningful drop in the $UTIL. Just one more day like this would crack that neckline without question.

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As I mentioned earlier, I took a fair bit of my oil/gold/ag profits off the table. Just look at the volume soar on OIH over the past week! I am thinking the dollar is going to weaken temporarily and gold/oil will push higher. This doesn't mean they are entering a new bullish phase; it simply means there could be some short-term strength.

hefeiddd

As I mentioned earlier, I took a fair bit of my oil/gold/ag profits off the table. Just look at the volume soar on OIH over the past week! I am thinking the dollar is going to weaken temporarily and gold/oil will push higher. This doesn't mean they are entering a new bullish phase; it simply means there could be some short-term strength.

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I have found USO to be another helpful chart to monitor when crafting a "theme" for my trading. Its approach toward the fan line compelled me to take some profits, but I would also note that any countertrend rally, for me, will simply represent new shorting opportunities.

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As an object lesson, take a look at how a security can cut through its fan lines one after another. I expect the likes of OIH and USO to do the same.

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Knowing when to take profits is very tough - perhaps one of the toughest chores a trader faces. I saw enough charts that looked like the one below to convince me it was time to take some money off the table. This isn't a bullish graph, but the price levels certainly have reached a level of at least medium-strong support. A cut beneath such a line, of course, would be bearish, but I lightened up a lot of positions by 1/3rd, and in some cases, I took them out of my portfolio altogether.

hefeiddd

Knowing when to take profits is very tough - perhaps one of the toughest chores a trader faces. I saw enough charts that looked like the one below to convince me it was time to take some money off the table. This isn't a bullish graph, but the price levels certainly have reached a level of at least medium-strong support. A cut beneath such a line, of course, would be bearish, but I lightened up a lot of positions by 1/3rd, and in some cases, I took them out of my portfolio altogether.

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One item I sold (near its high today, in fact) was DUG. This has had a super profit in the very short time I've held it, but I'm not comfortable banking on it breaking above the summer's highs. Not yet, at least.

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There were a few standout issues today. MasterCard (MA) is seriously breaking down.

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First Solar's failed breakout has created a marvelous bearish chart. I bought puts on this a week ago, and they are doing very well.

hefeiddd

First Solar's failed breakout has created a marvelous bearish chart. I bought puts on this a week ago, and they are doing very well.

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And Foster Wheeler (FWLT), in spite of having lost nearly half its value already, looks like it has plenty farther to fall.

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I'm trying not to get greedy, since things are going so well. Responsible and "fresh" stops are the key, as is taking at least partial profits. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens next.

Posted: 04:52 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

八月 28, 2008 - 05:00 下午Brutal YouthWell, there is one and only one trend in place - - - that is, me bellyaching about the markets and saying my post will be relatively short today.
This whole gets really old. Up, down, up, down, up, down - - all month long. You may ask: "Tim, why not take profits on days you are up?" Because the only way to make real money is to ride a trend...........at least for more than 6 hours at a time! My equity curve resembles the edge of a saw. Up, down, up, down, up, down. Insane!
The broken trendline is still intact and still has meaning. But by exceeding last Friday's highs, the market did some damage to the bears today.

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It was even worse in Russell-land; the resurgence in battered financial stocks helped the IWM and $RUT quite a bit, and the series of higher lows and higher highs, shown below, is troubling. Particularly since the downturn we were starting to enjoy a couple of weeks ago was stopped cold.

hefeiddd

It was even worse in Russell-land; the resurgence in battered financial stocks helped the IWM and $RUT quite a bit, and the series of higher lows and higher highs, shown below, is troubling. Particularly since the downturn we were starting to enjoy a couple of weeks ago was stopped cold.

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I am feeling better about my bearish positions on oil and gold, however. Early this morning, oil and gold were briefly strong, but they gave up these gains and moved into the red. The horizontal line on the $XAU at 157.50 is formidable.

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You should also take note of the substantial bearish engulfing pattern on the OIH..........

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.........and the USO.............

hefeiddd

.........and the USO.............

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I was looking at the S&P 500 chart, and I found something interesting. Look at the three sharply ascending trendlines I've drawn (not the long purple ones, but the blue ones, below). It may not look like it, but all these lines are the exact same 70% angle. What I find kind of riveting about this chart is how, for the third time in a row, the market's countertrend is cleanly tracked by this line, and eventually prices fall away. Plus, with each succession, the amount of "recovery" time is getting shorter, and the amount of "climbing" time is shrinking too.

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I have avoided pursuing dead cat bounces in the financials. Those that have, for the moment, have prospered. Just look at the 300% gain in MBI, for instance, over the past six weeks.

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But you need to keep these things in context............as well as the potential for a resumption of the plunge.

hefeiddd

But you need to keep these things in context............as well as the potential for a resumption of the plunge.

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The biggest sign of my nausea with the market these days is my complete absence from the comments section. I usually really enjoy reading the comments, getting new ideas, and answering questions. But I am again (for the moment, at least) so put off by the market's whipsaw action that I don't even want to go there. Let's see if Friday does any better for us, or if this week is going to end on a sour note...........

Posted: 05:00 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

八月 28, 2008 - 08:49 上午Home on the RangeTrapped! Trapped, I tell you! If this stupid market would just make up its freakin' mind, maybe someone out there - a bull or a bear - could make and keep some cash! Jeebis!

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Posted: 08:49 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

八月 27, 2008 - 08:14 上午Has June 16th Returned?Looking at the Russell 2000 (and, ergo, the IWM), it seems to me we've returned to June 16th. We're in a situation in which:

• we surged inexplicably above the retracement line;
• we broke a countertrend rally;
• we fell back;
• we surged again, but not as high

If we are simply repeating this cycle, what we expect to see next, of course, is a trip back to plunge-land. That would be nice. This morning has been pretty rocky so far; I was stopped out of XLU, FINL, DVN, ANR, FLR, and CMP.

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Posted: 08:14 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

八月 23, 2008 - 09:14 上午The Watched PotGood (Saturday) morning, everyone. I was too wiped out Friday night to do a post, but here I am.
In spite of me being very "on" about gold, oil, and the dollar last week, it was still pretty much a grind in terms of portfolio value. In order to really blast my value higher, I need the "one-two punch" of both energy/oil/gold falling and equities falling. That will supercharge everything, based on how I am positioned.
Crude oil is really interesting. Although I didn't draw the neckline in the chart below, it cuts across about the $123 level. I'd say we're heading for the psychologically significant $100 level on oil within the next month.

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I don't really look at commodities very much, but it is pretty remarkable just how fast commodities across the board have collapsed. I'm sure you recall earlier this summer how everyone was running around, screaming about exploding food prices, rationed rice at Wal-Mart, mega-wealthy farmers, and so forth. You could probably pinpoint the peak in prices across the board with all the squealing. Since then, things have absolutely plummeted. Just look at corn, below - from about $800 to $500 in a matter of weeks. I daresay the collapse in prices across the board has a long way to go.

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As for equities, we continue to push into increasing complacency in bull-land. The VIX range since "the new market" began (that is, last July) has been from 16 to 37. We're at about 18 now. We are getting near the lowest levels of the VIX within this range. Historically, this means a nice surprise is around the corner.

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The surge in equities Friday pushed things to very nice shortable levels. I also find it interesting to note how volume zoomed higher during the plunge in June and early July, and it has been withering away all through August. The market really doesn't know what to do with itself, and I think a lot of people are starting to lose interest. A watched pot never boils, and bulls and bears alike are growing weary of watching.

hefeiddd

The surge in equities Friday pushed things to very nice shortable levels. I also find it interesting to note how volume zoomed higher during the plunge in June and early July, and it has been withering away all through August. The market really doesn't know what to do with itself, and I think a lot of people are starting to lose interest. A watched pot never boils, and bulls and bears alike are growing weary of watching.

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Zooming in to the intraday level, however, you can see how technically perfect all this price action has been. An ascending wedge, a break, and a perfect retracement to the underside. I would be very, very surprised (and disappointed) if we didn't see a down day on Monday. (this is Gary's cue to tell me that the 25th of the month is usually an up day 97% of the time.....)

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My "short of the year" $UTIL has been higher, naturally, due to the recent strength in the Euro, but I think this is about to change. I say again: I think interest rates are heading much higher, the dollar is heading much higher, and the $UTIL is heading 20% lower.

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Indeed, if you want a chart expressing the potential strength of the dollar, look at USD/CAD, below. If this was a stock, wouldn't you want to be long? Just wait until that descending trendline is broken. The push above the horizontal line you see was major news.

hefeiddd

Indeed, if you want a chart expressing the potential strength of the dollar, look at USD/CAD, below. If this was a stock, wouldn't you want to be long? Just wait until that descending trendline is broken. The push above the horizontal line you see was major news.

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The IWM, on which I bought puts late Friday, also pushed nicely to its Fib level. I've boldfaced the two critical levels. We are just going to continue to watch (a) paint dry; (b) grass grow; until such time as that low Fib is snapped.

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As for the rest of the post, a variety of charts I think bears may find of interest, some of which I've never mentioned before. Have a good weekend, and I'll see you Monday!

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Posted: 09:14 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

八月 19, 2008 - 04:42 下午The Odds are ImprovingYesterday I was encouraged by the market's fall and my portfolio's substantial increase in value, but I was very skeptical. As I've mentioned repeatedly, the giant bag of cash that enters and exits my account is far too well worn. Today it managed to stay, because the odds are increasingly tilting in the favor of the bears. Not only did the bag stay, but a second one showed up.
The economic news that was released this morning revealed that (a) inflation is starting to surge, currently at an annualized rate of 12%; (b) the housing market - - - in spite of all the liars in government and industry that would try to convince you otherwise - - - is nowhere near a bottom. Markets do occasionally get rational, and so the Dow had another triple-digit drop today. The price didn't just sneak a little beneath its trendline. It is now no-questions-asked below the trendline, in addition to being plainly beneath its critically important Fibonacci level.

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I had substantial put positions on IWM and NDX, and I closed them both. I didn't do this because I think the indexes are going to soar - - - on the contrary, I think the odds of a substantial downturn unfolding in the coming weeks has gone up substantially. I did this out of a combination of (a) paranoia about the aforementioned disappearing money bag; (b) the fact that a lot of key ETFs and indexes were hitting Fibonacci retracements or other support levels. Looking at the IWM, prices were approaching areas of substantial congestion in the $72 level. If we get some market strength from our darling friends the bulls, IWM will probably push back to about the $74 level.

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The $MSH has a more convincing support level, represented by the support line. I think the odds of it breaking this line are quite good, and doing so would only amplify the advantages the cerebral traders (e.g. the bears) have in this market.

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Even more compelling than IWM is the actual index, the $RUT, which has nicely touched a very important Fibonacci level. This was the same level that got violated in late May and early June (much to my chagrin). Make no mistake, we are on the bulls' side of this level. We need to push beneath it to add more evidence to the bear case. This isn't a slam dunk; the bulls could take the baton away.

hefeiddd

Even more compelling than IWM is the actual index, the $RUT, which has nicely touched a very important Fibonacci level. This was the same level that got violated in late May and early June (much to my chagrin). Make no mistake, we are on the bulls' side of this level. We need to push beneath it to add more evidence to the bear case. This isn't a slam dunk; the bulls could take the baton away.

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The S&P 500 performed well today for the bears too. One the bearish side, the trendline since July 15th is absolutely broken. On the bullish side, we are resting directly on the important level at 1270. A close beneath the lows of today and August 8th (that is, 1261) is a requirement. End of story.

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You can see this more plainly with a closer view.

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I have a hybrid portfolio at this point, because I have acquired a substantial quantity of calls related to energy and gold. I am counting on a rise in EUR/USD, gold, and oil.

hefeiddd

I have a hybrid portfolio at this point, because I have acquired a substantial quantity of calls related to energy and gold. I am counting on a rise in EUR/USD, gold, and oil.

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Just as Tuesday morning was chock full of economic indicators, Wednesday is wholly devoid of it. There's no doubt it will be an interesting day, but even if the bulls push things higher, it will not undo the damage done in the week so far.

Posted: 04:42 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

八月 18, 2008 - 02:10 下午Tastes Like ChickenIt was a terrific day. But I've said that before, and what often happens is that the giant bag of money that goes into my account one day exits the next. We need a trend; a good, steady trend that lasts more than, oh, say, one day. So I'm not shopping for Lear jets just yet.
I pointed out in this morning's post that there are two schools of thought as to what's next (school 1: July 15 was the low; school 2: we're about to enter a gigantic wave 3 that plunges us into much lower levels). Today's action helps the second postulate to some degree. And Tuesday morning's important economic reports will provide some more direction. But hear this: until we break below 1261 on the S&P 500, we're just flap-jawwing.
I was interested to see FXP had a strong up day. I haven't had a position in China for a while, but looking at $CZH, it looks like the post-Olympic bear market might be shaping up. Do you remember what I was writing back when the Shanghai index was above 6,000? I was talking about how the new, naive middle class was going to get their heads handed to them. Well, that's what happened. But I think there could be lots more heads to come.

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The Dow's 180 point drop today helped the bear case. We need to push below the dark red line you see below, though. The good news is that the ascending wedge was busted. The 7/15 uptrend is no longer intact.

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I still think the Euro is going to bounce pretty strongly, but I'm not inclined to take a position. I don't trade FOREX anymore, but this graph merits watching, since it will have a direct impact on oil, gold, and (to a lesser degree) equities.