一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 08:37

Tuesday, January 6, 200901/06/2009 Market Recap: NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average
Three points to say today:
1. NYA50R(NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average) in chart [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s144166644]&disp=P]0.0.1 Market Top/Bottomed Watch[/url] could mean that the market is topped, but under the current market conditions I doubt it.
2. Market still overbought. A pullback is healthy for the market, if the market keeps pumping up, then according to above mentioned NYA50R topping signal, it could be the final climax run and therefore is not good for the intermediate-term
3. Financials sector still lags. No good.

About the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average, please check the bellow chart. Very high now which usually means an intermediate-term top.

The reason I have a doubt now is because of chart [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152595461]&disp=P]7.0.5 NYSE Percent of Stocks Above MA200[/url] bellow, it shows rather the market is near a bottom instead of a top. So I'm now inclined to look NYA50R as a short-term overbought signal. Well, I could be wrong, so be careful anyway.

About short-term overbought:

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], Doji again, could be a reversal or a continuation tomorrow, 50 to 50. I bet down though.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url], MACD, RSI negative divergence, should pullback short-term. Also Canada [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142228780]&disp=P]1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min)[/url], the same, MACD, RSI negative divergence.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125240869]&disp=P]3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily)[/url], oil has been the main course for the recently rally, but today a reversal bar was formed. Could pullback and therefore not good for the overall market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123162280]&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily)[/url], overbought, [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url], oversold. It was not a good combination for the market in the past. But now, I'm not sure if Carry Trade still exists, so, let's see.

SPX Short-Term Volume Osc from www.decisionpoint.com, highest in 3 years. The longer term indicator VTO bellow now is a little bit too high.

T2122 from Telechart 4 Weeks New High/Low Ratio, overbought.

About Financials Sector:

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s147405267]&disp=P]5.0.1 Select Sector SPDRs[/url], for all 9 sectors, now only Financials and Materials sectors haven't breakout yet.

Posted by Cobra at 9:02 PM 0 comments

Monday, January 5, 200901/05/2009 Market Recap: Still Overbought
Consolidation day today. A Doji was formed, the direction is unknown. But since the market is still very overbought, so it's high likely to pullback further and such kind of pullback could last for a few days. Intermediate-term still is up as long as no lower low is formed on this coming pullback.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], not a single overbought signals are fixed today.

SPX Short-Term Volume Osc from www.decisionpoint.com, green line is way too high, very overbought. Since it's a 5 day moving average of the blue line above, so it's not easy for the green line to go down and that's why I said that this coming pullback could last for a few days.

T2122 from Telechart, 4 week New High/Low ratio, rise again today, overbought.

NYSE Common Stock Only Advance-Decline Line from www.decisionpoint.com, very interesting, for the last 3 up days the advancing stocks were less and less, this is a negative divergence.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s148778154]&disp=P]1.4.4 TSE McClellan Oscillator[/url], Canada is very overbought too. The signals in this chart are all at their highest point.

Posted by Cobra at 7:08 PM 0 comments

Sunday, January 4, 200901/02/2008 Market Recap: Breakout
Breakout Friday, good, three points to say:
1. Intermediate-term still up.
2. Short-term very very overbought, should pullback sometimes next week.
3. Financial sector still lags.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], clear breakout just too many overbought signals, although according to TICK (see dashed red lines), still Monday could be up again.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url], overbought, surprisingly no negative divergence yet, so again Monday could be up.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], 1433 stocks price up volume down, bearish, this also means a pullback could occur no later than Tuesday.
SPX CVI and STVO from www.decisionpoint.com, overbought.

T2122, 4 weeks New High/Low Ratio from Telechart, overbought.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s147405267]&disp=P]5.0.1 Select Sector SPDRs[/url], apparently the Financial sector is the weakest of all while the defensive sectors, XLV and XLP are leading, not good. By the way, XLY leads because Retailers are good but Home Builders are still weak.

Posted by Cobra at 8:33 AM 0 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 08:38

Thursday, January 1, 200912/31/2008 Market Recap: Market Overbought
Short-term the market is overbought, but I'm not sure if it will pullback tomorrow as most traders are away. As per 12/30 report, in order to prove that the up strength is stronger, tomorrow the market has to be up. Intermediate-term, some topping signals I see, so if luckily tomorrow the market goes up again, it might be a good idea to reduce the intermediate-term positions.

Short-term overbought signals:
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], where NYADV and NYMO are very reliable signals.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url], overbought plus possible sell signals if further down tomorrow.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], lots of negative divergence.

T2122 from Telechart, 4 week New High/Low Ratio, high enough for me to justify a pullback although it still can up a little more.

SPX Climactic Volume Indicator from Decision Point, multi-year high to me.

About intermediate-term warnings, I'm not saying that the market has topped as we had only 26 trading days so far till now, while even the failed bounce in August 2008 had 32 trading days. Why are trading days important? Because the big money cannot move as fast as we retailers.
T2101 from Telechart which is simply the absolute value of the number of advancing issues minus the number of declining issues. Well, forget about the definition of the T2122, just look at 10 day moving averages of this chart and compare it with the blue curve representing SPX. What do you see? Every time the moving average turns so does the SPX, right? Well, the moving average is about to turn now...

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s133851241]&disp=P]2.0.1 Volatility Index (Weekly)[/url], pay attention to red dashed lines, whenever RSI and STO reaches certain low point, the SPX reaches the top, which is represented by green curves. Well, sure, we're not there yet, but it's about the time we pay close attention, right?

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s144166644]&disp=P]0.0.1 Market Top/Bottomed Watch[/url], again, not there yet, but be aware.

Posted by Cobra at 2:02 PM 1 comments

Tuesday, December 30, 200812/30/2008 Market Recap: Time Running Out
Two problems today:
1. Intra-day chart has overbought readings, so market might open lower or pullback in the morning tomorrow.
2. Down 5 days, up 4 days (well, sort of), so according to my "equal up down days" rule, market must up huge tomorrow. This seems a little difficult. Well, because for the past 4 up days, there was a day traded for only half day, so maybe it's OK as long as the high of 1/2/2009 is higher than the high of 12/17/2008. But anyway in order to meet the goal, tomorrow, the market shouldn't drop huge, should it?

0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, it's the time to take at least partial profits if you follow short-term signals in this chart. I may not mention this every time in my report, so you have to check this chart everyday.

For "equal up down day" rule, please compare the following chart with [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url]. The market MUST UP BIG within 2 trading days.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], 2 overbought readings.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url], be careful about RSI "Double" overbought.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], lots of overbought readings, MACD RSI negative divergence (a little though), possible Bearish Rising Wedge.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s131641892]&disp=P]1.4.2 S&P/TSX Composite Index (60 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s148778154]&disp=P]1.4.4 TSE McClellan Oscillator[/url], Canada overbought too.

Posted by Cobra at 6:33 PM 2 comments

Monday, December 29, 200812/29/2008 Market Recap: Guppy Multiple Moving Average
Not much to say today, light volume, no direction. Tomorrow, the market might open lower or pullback in the morning. Noticed that recently the market tends to open high, sell off most of the day and pump up before the close, so if the market opens high again I suspect if it will sell off again, otherwise it seems too easy for bears.

0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, I've re-grouped the signals, now we have short-term buy/sell signals. The basic idea is to long when there's a buy signal, take partial profit when overbought signals appear and close long take short when there's a sell signal. Well, since they're mechanical signals which tend to have whipsaws, so you have to decide by yourself whether to trust these signals.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], STO and TICK overbought so that's why I said the market might open low or have a pullback in the morning. For bulls, although MACD, RSI positive divergence may look good but be prepared for the potential "Descending Triangle" breakdown.

Guppy Multiple Moving Average, the long term moving averages in pink represent huge overhead resistance (the wider between each pink line the heavier the resistance), the short term moving averages in brown have tried twice to break these pink lines but the pink lines remain almost intact (no sign of contracting which means the resistance is weakening). So it's quite understandable the sideway actions of the current market as the overhead resistance is too heavy. Comparing this with what had happened in August, where even the pink lines were not as thick as those of now, still after six tries in vain to break them, the brown lines had to give up. What I'm trying to say here is, it takes significant buying in order for the market to go up and unfortunately so far till now, I don't see those buying. So bulls, be patient and be prepared for the worst.

Posted by Cobra at 7:04 PM 0 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 08:38

Sunday, December 28, 200812/26/2008 Market Recap: Mixed Signals
Very thin volume Friday, so the Friday's market action may mean nothing. However the fact that the market has been up for 2 days in a row but still couldn't recover the previous 1 day drop, may mean that bears have the up hand. Now bulls must, for the rest of 3 days in 2008, fully recover the previous 5 down days. It seems a little difficult to me. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s146756206]&disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio[/url] has pointed a market top while [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139935158]&disp=P]2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume[/url] still yells a market bottom, I don't know which one is telling the truth, just let the market come to us: SPX breaks above 920 then intermediate-term up, breaks bellow 850 then intermediate-term down. Monday, because the Energy sector might rebound, so the overall market has a chance to go up.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s157645899]&disp=P]8.1.2 Does extremely low CPC lead a market top?[/url], because the extreme values of CPC vary in different period, "Normalized CPC" is used, which is the distance between MA10 and MA200. From the chart we can see, in bear market, 100% chances, an extremely low CPC value led to a market top.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s157664708]&disp=P]8.0.1 Use NATV/NYTV to catch the market top/bottom[/url], pay attention to the dashed green lines, still for "Normalized NATV:NYTV", the current low readings, 100% chances, mean a market bottom.

Oh, one hint: almost everyone uses CPC to check the market top/bottom while it seems I'm the only one who uses NATV:NYTV to check the market top/bottom.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], could be a Bull Flag, plus a low reading on STO, short-term bulls still have chances.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], possible Ascending Triangle, so might close green again on Monday. However, because the overbought readings on STO and TICK, the market might open low or pullback in the morning.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125240869]&disp=P]3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily)[/url], as mentioned in the previous report, the current position of RSI and STO usually mean a few days bounce.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123114873]&disp=P]5.2.0 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Daily)[/url], STO and ChiOsc indicate a potential bounce and since the energy sector weights heavily in the SPX, so as long as the financial sector doesn't drop too much, the overall market will go up.

Posted by Cobra at 9:43 AM 3 comments

Thursday, December 25, 200812/24/2008 Market Recap: An interesting chart
Nothing to say, just want to show you an interesting chart. Courtesy of http://www.stocktiming.com/index.htm.
The char shows that for the first time since May, the institution buy exceeds the institution sell. And recently the institution buy has decreased while the institution sell has increased a little. I'll keep an eye on this chart and report to you as soon as there're any interesting developments.

Posted by Cobra at 6:12 PM 3 comments

Tuesday, December 23, 2008Merry Christmas!
Thank you, my dear readers, Merry Christmas!

Posted by Cobra at 8:03 PM 13 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 08:39

Tuesday, December 23, 200812/23/2008 Market Recap: No Santa Rally
Well, no Santa Rally this year, I was wrong. (For statistics about Santa Rally, check here: http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/12/twas-3-nights-before-christmas.html) Still down 5 days in a row, no lower low, chart [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url] still applies. Well, maybe you don't believe me anymore, but I'll stick to my plan until SPX 850 was broken on close basis. Tomorrow we'll have only half trading day and plus a usually very low volume post Christmas Friday, so whatever going to happen might mean nothing. And by the way, one of paid newsletters I subscribe began to short the market today, reason, the Rising Wedge was broken yesterday.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124013638]&disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights[/url], for overall signals, short-term a little oversold, not very significant though.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url], RSI and STO not oversold yet, so this may mean that the market still has rooms to drop. Why SPX 850 ($84.51 on SPY chart) important? Besides it's the first lower low, if broken, a Double Top might be formed with target around $77.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url], ENV 10 still indicates an oversold condition. I still don't know how this going to affect the market.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s146756206]&disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio[/url], still way too bullish.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125240869]&disp=P]3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily)[/url], oversold. Pay attention to the green dashed lines, whenever RSI and STO reach certain oversold level at the same time, USO always had a several days bounce. Hope this time it works again. Recently the market seems to fluctuate along with the price of the oil, so if USO can bounce, maybe it's good for the overall market.

Posted by Cobra at 7:55 PM 0 comments

Monday, December 22, 200812/22/2008 Market Recap: Down 4 days in a row
During the past seven days there are five days when the market went down but there is still no low low, so the bounce still alive, and [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url] is still valid. TA is a matter of probability, and I validated all signals that I present in the report and they worked in the past, which is by no means guaranteed to work 100% accurate in the time being. If the signals are wrong, I will cut loss when SPX closes below 850. On the following chart, you may study if the rule in [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1[/url] is still valid. Because all short-term signals are neutral, I have no idea whether the market will go up or down. I guess the probability of going further down is low, because it's rare to see five consecutive down days even in this year. Again, it's a matter of probability and I would like to avoid saying "this time might be different".

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url], a little bit positive divergence. RSI and STO could go further up assuming they bounced back up from oversold level, so it's possible that the market could rally as soon as it opens, further down is also possible and that will form a low low, and RSI will form higher low. The so called rebound after positive divergence means the market goes down in the morning and reverses during the day.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s146756206]&disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio[/url]. This signal is way too bullish. However according to my observation the market may not sell off immediately after CPC reaches very low, and it could go up for a few days, which can be seen on the green curves represented by the market at the locations of green vertical dashed lines.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url]. VIX is still oversold, and it is going down with the market, now I am unclear what the consequence is.

Posted by Cobra at 8:35 PM 4 comments

Sunday, December 21, 200812/19/2008 Market Recap: Down 3 days in a row
Although SPX went up a bit on Friday, SPY dropped down. On the chart, three down days didn't take off the rally on Tuesday, so the dip is a buy according to [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url]. Suppose anything unexpected happens, the cut loss is below Dec 12th low at about 850. And the last hope of bulls is below the Dec 1st low at about 815. There is no concrete sign to indicate whether the market goes up or down on Monday, and my guess is the probability of 4 down days is pretty low since there are only two cases of three down days in a row since Oct 10th, and INDU and NYA have been down for three days. Furthermore, the next two weeks are shorter than normal, so will be the volume, if the big moneys want to distribute they won't get a good price, so the probability of big selling off is very low.
Take a look at the following SPY 60-min chart, the chart pattern looks quite bullish, SPX broke the head and shoulders bottom and then back tested neckline, finally it took off and formed an ascending triangle. Ascending triangle usually means continuation, and the probability of going up is higher. Of course it could break out at the downside, in this case there are two important levels where you can either cut loss or short the market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s157220654]&disp=P]7.0.3 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch[/url]. The Friday down is actually not very weak, the breadth is positive. This circumstance is the first time during the recent several months. Additionally, [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], surprisingly, 1443 stocks price up volume up, which is the most bullish among four price-volume relationships. The conclusion is no conclusion, just interesting.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url]. This chart could be either bullish or bearish from different perspectives. It is oversold, and ENV20 is almost broken, so VIX might bounce back up in the short term which favors bears. However the big pictures is that double top is confirmed -- because the neckline is not very clear, it might not be broken strictly speaking. My thought is bullish, according to my experience once a pattern is broken the overbought/oversold signals will not matter and VIX may continuously drop down.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139935158]&disp=P]2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume[/url]. This looks bullish to bulls, but it should not be over-considered because Friday was option expiry day.

Here is T2123 of Telechart, which is the accumulation of 4 week new high - 4 week new low and reflects the market strength. Although the market dropped down for three days but green line was going up, which indicates that 4 there were more and more week high. One can also see that the market is decent when green line crosses above the brown lines. Compare with up-crossing in August, the brown line is very close, and the rally was over very soon.

Here is analysis from a few newsletters.
Based on awarded Money Stream and TSV, Don Worden in Telechart is optimistic to the market.

Analysis of Mian Line Investor:

Analysis of Arthur Hill:

VIX analysis by Mike Paulenoff:

Posted by Cobra at 10:29 AM 2 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 08:40

Thursday, December 18, 200812/18/2008 Market Recap: 2 down days in a row finally
Today it's the first time the market went down for two days in a row in December. However according to [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url], this dip was a buy because two down days failed to take off the rally on Tuesday, which means bears are weaker. On SPX daily chart, surprisingly there is only one time the market down for three days since Oct 10th, this means the probability of market down tomorrow is relatively small. On the intraday chart of SPY, both RSI and STO are very close to oversold, therefore even if the market doesn't bounce back up tomorrow morning, it could do so during the day. However the breadth is a bit overbought or close to overbought, so it's prudent to lock the profit should the market rallies substantially.
Evidences to support the bounce back tomorrow morning:
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url], from the RSI and STO I think that even if the market goes further down it should not be significant. If the rebound doesn't happen in the morning, it could do afterward.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. RSI on the 15-min chart was extremely oversold once a while, which means the downside space is limited, and the rebound will be either morning or the afternoon.

Why it's better to lock the profit if the market goes up substantially:
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], ascending triangle or rising wedge is not broken yet, good. NYMO is still very close to overbought level, and STO on the top is not far from the overbought region. You may refer to [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url] to see how VIX is oversold.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url]. Previously I mentioned that it is not a big deal VIX breaks out ENV10 at the downside, however it will be an extreme case if ENV20 denoted by the red curves gets broken. Note that VIX is not far from ENV20. If VIX drops down tomorrow, the pattern could be a confirmed double top, which is a good news to the market over the intermediate term. However in the short term it would be extremely oversold, and the market could pull back in the short term.

T2122 of Telechart is going up continuously today. If the market soars up tomorrow, it could go to overbought region, which means the market would pull back in the short term.

SPX Climactic Volume Indicator (CVI), all overbought indicators have been corrected.

Posted by Cobra at 7:45 PM 1 comments

Wednesday, December 17, 200812/17/2008 Market Recap: Consolidation Day
Today is a consolidation day, and the direction is undecided.  There is no technical indicator to predict whether the market will go up or down tomorrow.  I guess the correction could continue in the morning but finally the market would close in green.  The reason is that there has been no two consecutive down days since December.  In term of operation, because the short-term breadth signals are a bit overbought or nearly overbought, it's better to lock the profit should the market rally substantially.
Over the intermediate term, my signals are based on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals[/url].  Since it's all buy signals and no obvious negative divergence, so the strategy is to buy dip according to [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url].  In the short term, do not consider to short unless you are very sure, for instance, there were several accurate signals yesterday, and the short positions should be hold for hedge the intermediate term long positions because the mid-term signals are often time-delayed, as soon as the signals are confirmed much profit has gone already.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url].  It's very likely an ascending triangle, and the upper edge has been tested six times, and I guess the breakout will be at the up side.  Note the two short term overbought signals, VIX ENV may not mean anything, but NYMO is fairly accurate.  Of course it is not very high today, but it will be if the market rallies further.

The T2122 of Telechart, NYSE 4 week New High / Low Ratio, is a bit high. If it reaches the blue line at the top, the probability of short-term pullback is quite high.

Here is the SPX Cimactic Volume Indicator (CVI) chart. If the market rallies it may go back to overbought region.

Some readers reminded me yesterday that, major accumulation day on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days[/url], break down symmetrical triangle on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url], and major indices closed above 50-day moving averages for the first time, which are all bullish signs. I didn't mentioned those because they didn't reflect the major signals during the day. Today there are several other interesting charts, [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)[/url], overbought, [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123162280]&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily)[/url], oversold, [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url], overbought (it may not be an important signal later as mentioned yesterday); [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s137463038]&disp=P]3.2.3 US Dollar/Japanese Yen Ratio[/url], this shows that it's no longer valid to use Yen to predict the direction of the stock market.

Posted by Cobra at 8:53 PM 1 comments

Tuesday, December 16, 2008Another proof of a possible pullback tomorrow
Well, I just saw another proof of a possible pullback tomorrow. Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com.

Pay attention to SPX Climactic Volume Indicator (CVI), maybe the right side "Last 21 days" is clearer. CVI is too high, and it seems like every time CVI reaches the today's level, the next day will close in red.

Posted by Cobra at 8:37 PM 2 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 08:41

Tuesday, December 16, 200812/16/2008 Market Recap: No Breakout Yet
Are bulls happy today? Well, technically, not out of the woods yet, as still no higher high today and intermediate-term still could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming. Tomorrow, because RSI on SPX 30 min and 15 min char are pretty overbought, plus extreme readings on TICK, so the market may at least have either a morning or an intraday pullback.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], the question of Ascending Triangle or Rising Wedge still not resolved. VIX ENV close to oversold and NYMO overbought so if again rise big tomorrow, bulls better take some profits.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url], RSI overbought and the blue curve of the TICK is a little bit too high, so a pullback is due.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], RSI way too overbought and ChiOsc is at the level which generally is not sustainable.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url], Yen had a big day today, it's a good news for the stock market as Yen is overbought and therefore due for a pullback. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156225453]&disp=P]3.2.4 Japanese Yen and the Market Top/Bottom[/url], if have time, take a look at this chart, it is probably still applicable that RSI of Yen overbought means a market bottom. But, since the interest rate of US$ is almost zero now, I'm not sure if "Carry Trade" should become meaningless and therefore the Yen can no longer be used as a market indicator. We will see.

Posted by Cobra at 7:37 PM 4 comments

Monday, December 15, 200812/15/2008 Market Recap: No Title
No much to talk about today. Tomorrow is a Fed day, so no idea what will happen, probably big swings again after 2:15pm.
Let's take a look a few charts.
0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals. Today SPX falls right at the lower edge of the rising wedge (or the ascending triangle). Inside day, maybe the market is waiting too.

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min). Note the level of TICK represented by the blue curves on the top of chart. At such a level, I have sufficient reasons to doubt how deep it could drop down in any case the market plunged.

3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily). Japanese Yen is showing the same thing, three black candles in a row which likely causes reversal in normal circumstance.

Posted by Cobra at 6:35 PM 0 comments

Sunday, December 14, 200812/12/2008 Market Recap: Bearish Until Proven Bullish
This week bears almost attacked for four days but couldn't take off the gain of previous two days, so bulls won. In the week it is bulls' turn to prove themselves. On the chart there are a few patterns against bulls, although these are not destructive but bulls have to break out before disregarding these patterns. Therefore it is key whether the market could rally substantially in the next week. On Monday, since the TICK is a bit extreme the market could pull back during the trading hours if the market doesn't open at low.
Over the intermediate term, there are several patterns which worry me:
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. It could be a bearish rising wedge, or possibly a ascending triangle. So a breakout is needed to give us a clear picture. VIX ENV is close to oversold, and NYMO is nearly overbought, so you should lock profit if the market closes significantly higher on Monday.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url]. It might be a symmetrical triangle, which means 75% of chance is break out at the upside. Furthermore, VIX is nearly oversold and will bounce back up sooner or later, which means the market will pull back.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s132765947]&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)[/url]. This looks like an ascending triangle. The massive rally is really a concern.

The evidences to support short-term pullback:
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url]. Take a look at TICK, note the level of blue lines is a bit high. Previously the blue lines pulled back moderately at this level, and it's not far from big pullback. Therefore I suggest to lock profit should big rally happens.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. It looks like back testing broken descending triangle. RSI and ChiOsc are at a subtle levels and they could pull back.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], 1388 stocks price up volume down, bearish.
The following is a single good news in this report, but it has a higher weight.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125508052]&disp=P]3.2.1 Japanese Yen (Weekly)[/url], overbought, and more importantly it has gone up for six weeks. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url], take a look at this chart also, two black candles which have a high probability of reversal, period.

Posted by Cobra at 12:29 PM 3 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 08:41

Thursday, December 11, 200812/11/2008 Market Recap: Bull Flag?
Today the market dropped down, many people may feel very bearish. However, I don't see many bearish signs on the charts so far, on the contrary all short term overbought signals have been fixed today. Therefore the pullback should be normal. Still the simple method that I mentioned previously, after three down days bears only got back Monday's rally, based on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url], this is still a buyable dip. Of course, since auto bailout might fail or be postponed to the next week, and there could be selling on news even if it does pass, I am not suggesting to buy this dip. From the perspective of technical analysis, today is not bad -- if TA is still useful. Because of oversold RSI on SPX 15-min chart, the market might bounce back tomorrow morning or during the trading hours. Whether or not it will close in green, I don't know.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Basically three down days claimed back Monday's rally. Compare with the second green comment from the left on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url], you will know what I mean.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url]. On the chart, the pattern is obvious bull flag. It can also be considered as to fill the gap on Monday, plus testing back the neck line of head and shoulders bottom. Therefore it's not bad. Tomorrow bulls will have multiple support levels, should any level holds the overall up trend will be intact. Considered nearly oversold RSI and very negative TICK, some support might hold tomorrow. Note that the last Friday low 82.24 is the last hope of bulls.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. RSI is oversold on the chart. Because there is no positive divergence on the chart, tomorrow we may see a lower low. Possibly the market will bounce back up and then drop down again, or sell off first and then bounce back during the day. Anyhow the oversold RSI has to be corrected eventually.

Posted by Cobra at 9:06 PM 6 comments

Wednesday, December 10, 200812/10/2008 Market Recap: No Title
Today not much to talk about, it's just a consolidation before the catalyst upside breakout or falling down to hell. However, the final result is unknown at the moment. On the chart, either bulls or bears can find signals favors them, but bulls' signals are more short term, so I guess the market could go up tomorrow morning.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. As said yesterday, this is a typical consolidation, and the small candle can extend further until it breaks out at one direction. Note the bottom of the chart, NYMO is still overbought which is good news for bears.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], 1665 stocks price up volume down, very bearish, and this is also good news for bears.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s137463038]&disp=P]3.2.3 US Dollar/Japanese Yen Ratio[/url]. This is my biggest concern. Yen is becoming stronger with respect to US dollar and Euro, and this is bearish to the stock market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url]. Take a look at the support level, which still hold, good. If it gets tested the third time, however, the chance of being hold is close to zero. The positive divergence on the chart favors bulls.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. MACD, RSI and ChiOsc are all positive divergence, so the possibility of rally in the near term is relatively higher.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128581358]&disp=P]5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily)[/url]. You may notice that Financials are quite weak. The chart is roughly a test back after the breakout. Furthermore, two down days couldn't even claim the gain in two previous up days, which is not so bad.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142228780]&disp=P]1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min)[/url]. Canadian market doesn't look so good. Bearish rising wedge, MACD and RSI show negative divergence on the daily chart. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s130140412]&disp=P]1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily)[/url], four days of up trend failed to compete the previous four days of down trend, very bearish.

Posted by Cobra at 8:26 PM 6 comments

Tuesday, December 9, 200812/09/2008 Market Recap: No Title
Today the pullback has not fully reclaimed the Monday rally, which means the strength of down is slightly weakened. So the situation is not bad, as long as tomorrow the market doesn't break the Friday low, it will be a buyable dip according to [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url]. Will the market go up or down tomorrow? I cannot see any positive divergence that favors bulls, bears on the other hands have too overbought signals, so the market might likely go further down tomorrow morning at least.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Technically speaking today's drop is a low volume consolidation. According to the chart, following the big rally on last Friday, two relatively small candles on Monday and Tuesday were consolidation below the important resistance, which setups a potentially upside breakout (it's also possible that the breakout fails and it heads down). Furthermore, there are two overbought signals favor bears. STO on the top of chart may not be significant, but overbought NYMO should be quite accurate.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url]. You can see that bulls have multiple levels of supports. If those support hold, it is good, otherwise expect a decent selling off because the next support is at last Friday low.

Posted by Cobra at 6:52 PM 0 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 09:06

Monday, December 8, 200812/08/2008 Market Recap: The first higher high
Today the market made its first higher high in recently recent several months. Tomorrow the market may very likely pullback, at least in the morning. Considered that trend often goes from one extreme to another, however, the judgement for pullback may not be sufficient, so I would rather to buy dip than sell short. Why buy dip? Because all mid-term signals in [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals[/url] are buy. What kinds of dips are good to buy? See [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url]. If tomorrow pullback happens and is not substantial, you may refer to conditions set in [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]chart 8.1.1[/url]. I would like to emphasis that you should do your own due diligence after referring to the chart, instead of buying dip blindly.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url]. The good news is the neck line of the head and shoulders bottom broke out, which means this pattern is confirmed, and this is bullish. Furthermore, the gap up today may have formed an island reversal pattern which is also bullish as long as today's gap isn't filled in the short term. The bad news is the RSI is oversold, which is fairly accurate on 30-min chart.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url]. MACD and RSI show negative divergence. The ChiOsc indicator on QQQQ is negative divergence, while it doesn't on SPY, so QQQQ is more likely to have a pullback tomorrow.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123237122]&disp=P]2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator[/url]. This is the worst signal for bulls -- NYMO is overbought, and this is the third highest on the record of StockCharts. Again, if under normal condition, the market is due for pullback. However I am not sure if this level is extreme enough under the current market condition. By the way, NYAD 10-day moving average on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals[/url] is also very high which means overbought. Actually an article claims that such an overbought means bullish mid-term outlook (http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-internals-overbought-but-room-to-run-2123.html). There have been 13 times when the 10-day average of the ratio has been 63% or greater, and today’s reading was 79% or higher. A month later, the S&P 500 was positive all 13 times, averaging +4.8%. Three months later, it was still 13-for-13, but the average return climbed to +8.6%.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s111487104]&disp=P]1.5.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily)[/url]. The mainland China stock market broke out. Although RSI shows overbought, it is a good chance to buy in theoretically, and the target is 2333.

Posted by Cobra at 8:41 PM 0 comments

Sunday, December 7, 200812/05/2008 Market Recap: An interesting chart
The market reaction on Friday was good according to [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url]. However on the daily chart there is no breakout yet, and the possibility of extended ranging-bounding is still there. Over the short term, the market might at least pull back in the early morning of Monday because of the overbought on the 15-min chart. Afterward how the market will goes, I have no idea since many short-term indicators are neutral. However, when I was reorganizing my chart book I found an interesting phenomena of ChiOsc indicator of Japanese Yen. If this phenomena still holds, very likely the Friday rally will be extended.
Here is the relationship between ChiOsc indicator of FXY and the stock market. Recently Yen rallied substantially without the confirmation of ChiOsc, in fact this indicator is still negative. The similar scenario happened three times this year, and all at the market bottom.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Among those short-term signals, almost all are neutral except the overbought NYMO.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s156188507]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)[/url]. Two gaps on the chart have not been filled yet. The head and shoulders bottom pattern is not confirmed yet because the neck line isn't broken out.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. RSI is overbought, so the market might pull back to some extent in the morning of Monday.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125240869]&disp=P]3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily)[/url]. The crude oil is oversold and should be due for a rebound according to magnifying sell volume.

Posted by Cobra at 12:02 PM 3 comments

Thursday, December 4, 200812/04/2008 Market Recap: NYSE TICK
Today the market dropped down, but it doesn't look so bad, at least it is bears' turn to show their strength. Two up days versus two down days, if tomorrow low cannot break Monday low, the strength of bears will be approved to be weak. In another words, as long as the Monday low holds, still the bounce is alive. Will the Monday low hold? Possibly, because the TICK today was too negative, and Yen and Bond were too high. It is hard to imagine how high these two things could fly, and it is reasonable to doubt if the selling off will test the November low.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. The pattern looks a bit like symmetrical triangle, and 75% of chance is break out at the upside. Note the green dashed line, once TICK closes below -1000, the possibility of bouncing back on the next day is very high. Of course, the market may dip down sharply first and reverse during the day.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s155302040]&disp=P]2.1.2 NYSE - TICK (30 min)[/url]. Note the blue bold line, which happens when it reaches the green horizontal line? The worst scenario is to sell off further until the blue line forms a double bottom or positive divergence. Just for clarification, I doubt the potential selling off but by no means the market could bounce back immediately.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s132765947]&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)[/url]. Take a look at this chart, unbelievable.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url]. Almost a new high, it is overbought.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s147405267]&disp=P]5.0.1 Select Sector SPDRs[/url]. Recently XLY and XLF are strong. It is good that the past losers are becoming stronger. Does anyone believe the rally of XLY and XLF was caused by short squeeze? If no short squeeze, the strength is real.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152183731]&disp=P]6.0.3 Sector Relative Strength[/url]. For more information, take a look at the relative strength.

Posted by Cobra at 9:05 PM 6 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 09:07

Wednesday, December 3, 200812/03/2008 Market Recap: Head and Shoulders Bottom?
Today the market looks quite bullish, but I am not entirely satisfied because two up days failed to cover the loss on Monday. On the 5-min charts of SPY and QQQQ the pattern looks like a head and shoulders bottom, or at least a cup with handle, furthermore there is no significant overbought signals in the short term, bulls might have a chance tomorrow.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124013638]&disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights[/url]. On the overview of all signals, mid-term ones are green, short-terms are surprisingly neutral except for overbought NYMO. Under this scenario, I would rather rely on patterns and tend to believe bulls have a chance tomorrow according to head and shoulders bottom. Over the intermediate term, I think the trend is up according to signals and the basic strategy is to buy dip. However, no clear buyable dip signal showed up in recent two days based on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url].

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Take a look at the follow chart and see why I am not satisfied. Today's candle isn't small and not a bearish one either, thus I have no concrete conclusion. By the way, two inside bars are like a compressed string, no matter which direction it bursts out it would be dramatic.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. You may see a big head and shoulders bottom, and the small one is located at the top right corner where the blue circle marks.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s147179272]&disp=P]2.1.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 5 min)[/url]. Again, a small head and shoulders bottom. Neckline might not be convincible, but cup with handle patten should also work which is a continuation pattern.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], 1163 stocks price up volume down, not a good news.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s132765947]&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)[/url]. TLT rallied again, and it's overbought, plus volume declined for three days, plus doji today, it might want to take a rest which is bullish to the stock market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url]. Japanese Yen may also pull back which is bullish to the stock market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125240869]&disp=P]3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily)[/url]. Note the green dashed line, every time STO reaches there it will bounce back. Furthermore, the sell volume is magnifying which also means an exhaustion in some extent. Therefore the crude oil may possibly bounce back, which is bullish to the stock market.

As a summary, over the short-term odd may be at bulls' side.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142228780]&disp=P]1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min)[/url]. Canadian market looks like a double bottom. If crude oil bounces back, TSX may follow as well.

Posted by Cobra at 9:04 PM 0 comments

Tuesday, December 2, 200812/02/2008 Market Recap: Inside Day
Today is an inside day, which means today's candle is completely inside the body of yesterday's candle. I actually don't like this candle very much, especially the small white candle after a huge red candle (note: this kind of candle is called Harami, which has a strong indication of reversal. However the second candle is better to be small for accurately predict the coming trend in a typical Harami setup, while today's candle is a bit too big). Based on the simple strength judgement model, today's rally has not covered yesterday's loss, which means the up strength is weak. Therefore tomorrow is the key, the market has to rise massively in order to avoid a potential roll over afterward, at least the gap formed on Monday is better to be filled. Take a look at [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], a small white candle tomorrow won't work, red candle is no good either, only the big white candle is good. Also notice that the NYADV and NYMO are very close to overbought, which means bounce still has life even we see a big white candle, but the market could still pull back in the short term.

A not so good news we have today: [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], 1343 stocks price up volume down. This is quite bearish although I think it should not be over analyzed. The statistics shows that the market could drop down tomorrow or as late as the day after tomorrow. The reason that the data should not be over analyzed is because 1266 stocks price up volume up, which is the most bullish price-volume relationship. Maybe two data can cancel each other in some extent.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. The pattern on 60-min chart looks like a head and shoulders bottom, and the theoretical target is 105.76 which is October high. This may not mean anything, we can put the chart aside and see how it works out some time later. In real practice, I found that patterns such as double top, symmetrical triangle, etc, are quite accurate. However the prerequisite is to break the blue neck line on order to confirm the pattern.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123162280]&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily)[/url]. Let's see one more example where the up strength is weaker than the down strength. US dollar has bounced back up for three days, but it failed to cover the loss in previous three days, and today it formed a bearish dark could cover, so I think US dollar with drop. The correction of US dollar favors commodities, while the strong Japanese Yen and declining US dollar are bearish to the stock market. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url], Yen seems having broken out the symmetrical triangle, although it is a bit overbought it still looks quite strong.

Posted by Cobra at 8:48 PM 2 comments

Monday, December 1, 200812/01/2008 Market Recap: The 2nd worst down day in 2008
Today is very bad. I expected a pullback but eventually it turned out to be a crash, and in fact it is the second biggest down day after Oct 15th 2008. To make it even worse, [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123447127]&disp=P]2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing[/url] which is quite accurate is still overbought, and this means there is hopeless to see a rally in the short term. I looked through my whole chart book and cannot find a single signal which makes bulls potentially relieved.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. The last hope of bulls is the gap support at the bottom. However I don't know if it will hold.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. RSI is extremely oversold, so the market may bounce back up in the early morning. However, remember that after the same magnitude of RSI oversold, the market didn't rally after Nov 6th and kept dropping until close. Today's scenario is very similar with Nov 5th.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123447127]&disp=P]2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing[/url], still overbought.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s132765947]&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)[/url]. The bond is flying to the sky. Once again, it approves that when the bond market doesn't agree with the stock market, the former is more convincible. You will know more after reading [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s155190036]&disp=P]3.0.5 SPY and TLT[/url].

Posted by Cobra at 9:22 PM 0 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 09:08

Saturday, November 29, 200811/28/2008 Market Recap: Market Overbought
Over the short term, the market is overbought, and may pullback at some point in the next week. Over the intermediate term, an encouraging signal appeared on Friday. Of course, the signal needs to be confirmed by the location where the pullback finishes, and it has to be a higher low.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. NYADV and NYMO, which are used to be quite accurate, are overbought now. Yes, Market may ignore these overbought signals temporarily, however do anyone really believe that NYADV will stay at overbought level and never come down?

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url], RSI is overbought. As mentioned in the past, RSI overbought/oversold on the 60-min chart is quite accurate.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url], Bearish Rising Wedge, MACD and RSI show negative divergence.

As a summary, I believe a pullback is due in the short term.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals[/url]. NYSI buy signal. So far, all mid-term signals are buy.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139935158]&disp=P]2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume[/url]. Spike low, it looks very encouraging and like a bottom. Last time of spike low is March, and then the market rallied for two months.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111676]&disp=P]3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield[/url]. Yield is dropping down continuously, which looks encouraging too.

Because of [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139935158]&disp=P]2.3.4[/url] and [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111676]&disp=P]3.0.0[/url] signals, the mid-term outlook should be promising.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s130140412]&disp=P]1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily)[/url]. The Canadian market is overbought.

Posted by Cobra at 10:54 PM 2 comments

Thursday, November 27, 200811/26/2008 Market Recap: One more strength test
According to the statistics in the past 56 years, the probability of rally two days before or after Thanksgiving is about 80%. Tomorrow the market will open a half day, hopefully there is no surprise. In the short term, the market is very close to overbought, and in the intermediate term there are three buy signals already, while we still need to see if the pullback can form a higher low.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. This chart has given several overbought signals, but the most accurate one NYADV is not there yet. Based on my simple strength judgement which compares up days and down days, if the high tomorrow can be above 92.06, we will confirm that the up strength is stronger.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s130140412]&disp=P]1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily)[/url]. Very close to oversold. On the Tuesday report, the statistics shows that VIX breaking out of ENV 10 is actually bullish, however it will be over bullish if ENV 20 is broken. Take a look at the ENV 20 (red curve at the bottom), VIX is not very far from breaking it.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126618051]&disp=P]1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min)[/url]. The pattern on the 60-min chart is likely a head and shoulders bottom, and a bigger head and shoulders bottom might be forming. The theoretical target of QQQQ is 32.23. By the way, RSI on the stop of chart is almost overbought. If you look more carefully at the 60-min chart, overbought/oversold of RSI is quite accurate on the 60-min chart.

On T21122 of Telechart, as discussed previously, 4 week new high / low index is very useful. It is not in the overbought region at 90 yet.

As a summary, a few short-term overbought signals, NYADV, VIX ENV 20, RSI on 60-min chart, and T2122, are not in place yet. The reason of listing them here is for your attention, it is not a bad idea to lock a part of profit. The second reason is that, although I believe the pullback can happen at any time (in fact recently the market pulled back significantly in the middle of the day), I will not short at the current level because the short-term sell signals are not ready yet. My strategy is to buy dip first if there are many mid-term buy signals, and will only go short when many short-term signals are pointing to pullback.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124013638]&disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights[/url]. Here is the overview of all signals. If the market rallies for two more days, most likely all short-term signals will be oversold, and mid-term signals will be buy.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s132765947]&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)[/url]. I have been worrying about bond recently. The stock market is going up while the bond rallied too. However candles in recent two days on TLT have high likelihood of reversal, maybe I need not to worry about it? If tomorrow the market goes up and the bond goes up again, considered so many close-to-overbought signals aforementioned, I will feel quite bearish.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url]. MACD and RSI negative divergence.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142228780]&disp=P]1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min)[/url], On the Canadian market, Bearish Rising Wedge, MACD and RSI show negative divergence, not a good news.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s111487104]&disp=P]1.5.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily)[/url]. Although China cut the rate but it didn't break out, What a pity.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], Dominant Price-Volume Relationships on Wednesday was 1719 stocks price up volume down. This might be affected by the holiday, so a series of bearish reading may not mean anything.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s133859547]&disp=P]1.0.6 S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index[/url], the buy signal on SPX bullish percent index has been confirmed by all major indices.

Posted by Cobra at 8:17 PM 1 comments

Tuesday, November 25, 200811/25/2008 Market Recap: No title
Tomorrow the market may still pull back since the short-term signals which supported the pullback listed in yesterday report are still there. Today we have two mid-term buy signals, but it is too early to draw a conclusion that the intermediate-term trend is up before knowing how big the pullback is.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signal[/url]. All problems are explained on this chart. Black candle with high probability of reversal, oversold VIX ENV, TICK closed above 1000, and three up days with decreasing volume which is a negative price-volume relationships, all are yelling short-term pullback. On the other hand, what is different from the conventional wisdom is that, the statistics show that oversold VIX ENV and overbought TICK often show up when the market is relatively strong, the market may pullback in the short term however a decent rally can be expected over a longer period. (statistics is at http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/05/is-low-vix-short-trigger.html).

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], 1207 stocks price up volume down, bearish price-volume relationship for two days, this also means the market is due for a pullback.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124013638]&disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights[/url]. Here is the overview of all signals. CPC is very low at 0.79 today, which isn't a good sign.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111676]&disp=P]3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield[/url]. This is why I have a little hope about an intermediate-term up, ROC 30 is going further down. At such a level, bond has little yield and the market may likely bounce back up. You may check out the accuracy of TNX ROC30 in the past: [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e137695390]&disp=P]8.0.4 Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2005-2008[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s137696214]&disp=P]8.0.5 Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2001-2004[/url].

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s132765947]&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)[/url]. TLT is possibly a hanging man, and there are several gaps below the current level. Furthermore, [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111676]&disp=P]3.0.0[/url] has shown that the bond yield is very low, so I doubt how big the upside room is for TLT. And it is reasonable to believe TLT has formed a hanging man pattern and due for a pullback, which may cause a rally of the stock market.

Posted by Cobra at 8:51 PM 0 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 09:09

Monday, November 24, 200811/24/2008 Market Recap: Two day gains finally
Finally the market has been up in two consecutive days. What is even more promising is that SPY has fully reclaimed the loss in previous two down days within this two up days. So this is the first time that the market showed some up strength for a long time. Next the market may likely pull back, and how big the pullback is will be a key to predict if this is a oversold bounce or intermediate term trend reversal. Similarly, if the market does pull back for two days, we should check out whether the two down days fully takes off the two up days gain.

There is no clear signal to predict the market will pull back tomorrow. However a few statistics show that the likelihood of pullback tomorrow is quite significant.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s153524275]&disp=P]8.0.6 TICK and CPC[/url]. This is most significant today, TICK closed above 1000, and CPC is way too bullish at 0.74. However, two data are insufficient to draw a conclusion of pullback. On the chart, there are 8 green lines which represent the next up day, and 12 red lines which show the next down day, so the possibility of getting a down day is about 67%. Concerning the very low level of CPC, it doesn't necessarily means the market would correct on the next day according to the blue dashed lines on the chart.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days[/url]. Today is a major accumulation day, and the chart shows that the market might likely close lower.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], 1969 stocks price up volume down, very bearish. Although a short week may explain in some extent, I still consider 1969 a big number and this is relatively bearish pattern. According to the statistics, the market may pull back tomorrow or as late as the day after tomorrow.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url], MACD and RIS show negative divergence. Although the pattern isn't very significant, it is still a bit bearish to the further rally.

As mentioned early, pullback is okay and it is healthy. The key is how big the pullback is. There are two signs concerned me. Whether my concern will become serious depends on how the market goes in the next few days.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. The RSI 50-60 region has not broken out yet. Unable to reach 70 of the oversold level is a sign of weakness for the market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s144322189]&disp=P]3.2.4 Yen RSI and the Market Top/Bottom[/url]. Recently the level of RSI of Yen has marked the market top for several times. Let's see if it becomes true again.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123162280]&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily)[/url]. US dollar broke down and confirmed the bearish dark cloud cover, which is a good news at the moment because the pullback favors the rally of commodities, and in turn this is a good news to commodities stocks.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url]. VIX also broke down the bearish rising wedge, which is also a good news.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139935158]&disp=P]2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume[/url]. This is quite encouraging too. A relatively low value often means the market is bottomed out.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s111487104]&disp=P]1.5.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily)[/url]. The mainland market market may not be able to pass 50-day moving average.

Posted by Cobra at 8:48 PM 4 comments

Saturday, November 22, 200811/21/2008 Market Recap: Is 3rd time the charm?
The Friday's later day surge was the 3rd time we had recently. The previous 2 were all sold off the next day. So is 3rd time the charm or still the same easy money for bears? Well, I tend to believe that the 3rd time will be different. So short-term, the bounce might live a little longer than one day. And as for intermediate-term, if the past experiences still work at this crazy time, I tend to believe that Friday was not a bottom. Reason: the later day surge was too fast, conventional bottom day reversal usually doesn't act this way.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], chart says everything. Friday's surge was the 3rd time. And I do believe that the 3rd time will be different.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s155302040]&disp=P]2.1.2 NYSE - Tick[/url], note the blue thick line just hit the thin green line which always generated very good bounces in the past. The bounce usually carried the thick blue line above the zero before running out of the steam. The Friday's surge didn't push the thick blue line above the zero, so this probably means there's still some room left for the bounce.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111676]&disp=P]3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield[/url], ROC30 has reached an extremely low level which in the past always caused some big rallies, so this also supports that there might be some up room left for the bounce.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url], possible Bearish Rising Wedge, plus STO hit resistance, VIX might drop further and this is good for the market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url], how far will the bounce go? Look at tons of resistance ahead, period.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s155442299]&disp=P]0.0.4 SPX and Breadth Divergence Watch[/url], for above mentioned reasons, I myself have decided to ignore what this chart says, but it's my responsibility to let you know that on Friday, NYAD failed to confirm the surge. This was exactly the same pattern as that of Nov 13th which was sold off the 2nd day. So be careful here.

If we do get a further bounce, then here's a simple rule to verify if the Friday is a bottom.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], in order to prove that this was a trend reversal instead of a bounce, on Monday, SPY should have a high which is higher than 86.87. Why? As my previous report described, 2 down days vs 2 up days, the latter should fully recover the previous 2 in order to prove that the up strength is stronger. By the way, STO, NYADV and TICK are still in the oversold area, so as well, they support a further bounce.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123162280]&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily)[/url], Bearish Dark Cloud Cover, US$ might pullback.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124844123]&disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily)[/url], breakout, although the RSI2 above is overbought. If US$ pullback, gold will have good chances of going further up from here.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s148754989]&disp=P]5.0.2 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index[/url], from the Bullish Percent Index point of view, all sectors are back to historical low level now.

Posted by Cobra at 9:33 PM 4 comments

Thursday, November 20, 200811/20/2008 Market Recap: Uncharted Territory
The possibility of short-term rebound is still quite high. Concerning the trend reversal in the intermediate term, we have a news unrelated to TA -- the discussion of bailout plan for the three automakers will be postponed to December. With such a big uncertainty, I guess the mid-term trend reversal won't happen until December.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123837285]&disp=P]1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly)[/url]. 2002 low that everyone was talking about has broken without any battle. Look at the possible supports underneath. Around 1994 there is a significant consolidation area. Therefore, only that region can provide decent support theoretically. Of course myself doesn't even believe the market could drop there.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. All signals are oversold.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url]. Today's dominant price-volume relationships are oversold, 2058 stocks price down volume up.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s155302040]&disp=P]2.1.2 NYSE - Tick[/url]. TICK is still extremely negative, which means the market could bounce back in the early morning.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111676]&disp=P]3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield[/url]. This is about rebound too. Note the green dashed lines, when ROC30 goes below -9, the market which is denoted by the green curve on the background of the chart has a high chance to bounce back up. When the bond yield is very low, the money will consider the stock market is cheaper and flow to it. Of course, I don't know if the money is still willing to flow into the stock market given such an extraordinary situation. Today's 3-month US T-bill Yield ([url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s153530625]&disp=P]3.0.2 TED Spread[/url]) is almost zero, which shows that the money is extremely panic.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s132765947]&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)[/url]. Look at TLT, such a monster candle. The volume today is huge, and the moneys were really scared. RSI shows that TLT is overbought, STO reaches the level where the reversal happened last time. Therefore TLT might pull back, which means the market may bounce back up.

Posted by Cobra at 7:18 PM 0 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 09:10

Wednesday, November 19, 200811/19/2008 Market Recap: NYSE TICK
Today the market was very disappointing.  It seems the pattern of single up day holds very well, and on the other hand the down days never appear as single day.
Recently it has been tough to write the report.  TA assumes the history repeats itself.  However the current situations seems the the market is writing the history.  So we should keep cautious when using all kinds of TA signals which were accurate in the past.  According to very negative NYSE TICK, I believe the market is approaching capitulation, and at least the market might bounce back up in the early morning.  However if the market sells off further without any rally, the chance is tomorrow might be a reversal day.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123837285]&disp=P]1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly)[/url].  (it is unbelievably that we have to use the monthly chart for analysis)  Today SPX broke out at the down side and formed a new low in 2008, and it seems 2002 low will be tested.  SPX closed at 806, which is merely 38 points from 2002 low at 768.  If the market doesn't bounce back up tomorrow morning but sells off continuously, the possibility of testing 2002 low and forming a reversal should be very high.  Of course, will the market be bottomed out after the reversal?  I don't know, follow-through is the key, and recently we don't have it.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], VIX ENV overbought, NYADV is still on the oversold level while NYMO is very close to oversold. What is important is the TICK, which close is very negative today. It happened four times in this year as marked by green dashed line. If the history repeats itself, tomorrow we may see a big sell off (testing 2002 low?) but the trend may reverse during the day.

Here is the NYSE TICK 30-min chart since Oct 8th. Usually the value of TICK below -1000 is considered to be very negative, and too negative usually means reversal. As marked in green circles on the chart, many negative ticks are often local bottoms. 13th, a big reversal was triggered by a record-breaking TICK. Note that negative ticks below -1000 in recent two days are quite intensive, and are even heavier than the Oct 10th bottom. This is why I say in the beginning of the report, the market is approaching a capitulation according to TICK.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s146756206]&disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio[/url]. Today CPC is above 1.4. In the past this means the bottom of the market. Of course it may not mean anything for the current situation.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url]. VIX is still in the rising wedge. But I don't have any hope on it. It may break out at the up side, instead of at the down side.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s132765947]&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)[/url]. Do you remember the last warning on the yesterday report? Now we know the bond market is accurate. Anyway, TLT is overbought, and the possibility of STO reversal is pretty high.

Posted by Cobra at 8:31 PM 1 comments

Tuesday, November 18, 200811/18/2008 Market Recap: Two consecutive up days needed
Again, not so much to talk about today. In term of news and sentiment, it seemed an end of world and the market could go to zero. However, from my experience and observations, because of oversold signals which have been corrected in some extent, the probability of short-term rebound is still higher than further selling off. Over the intermediate term whether the market goes up or down, I still have no idea. What I know is many newsletters are calling the 2002 low. I also observed that the recent selling off often caused rebound during the middle of trading day, which is different from the past while the market never looked back to the upside. Therefore, I am not willing to short without seeing a rebound of 1-2 days. For people who are trapped by long positions especially if the positions are not very heavy, you may wait a while.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Short-term oversold signals on this chart have been corrected. In the past two days the market closed at a candlestick pattern which may cause reversal, which is the shooting star yesterday plus the hammer today. The key is whether we can see a follow-through. There is a long time we haven't see two consecutive up days, it will be good if the market goes up tomorrow.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123447127]&disp=P]2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing[/url]. Even if the market drops down tomorrow, it won't be too bad. NYADV has not gone out of the oversold region, and it will be oversold once the market drops tomorrow. After this period of testing, you may feel some confident to the oversold signal on this chart.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], 1218 stocks price down volume up, so the market is oversold and the market might be due for rebound.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s155088707]&disp=P]2.4.6 NYSE Volume Advancing[/url]. The positive divergence on the chart hasn't changed.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url], the bearish rising wedge is still there.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s153319737]&disp=P]2.0.4 SPX and VIX Divergence Watch[/url]. VIX and SPX show a bit positive divergence today. In the past the divergence on the chart successfully predicted previous two reversals, so you'd better not overlook the divergence this time. Of course, it isn't very significant and may not mean anything. Just a reminder.

T2122 of Telechart, 4 week new high/low ratio. This chart is similar with RHNYA on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2[/url], but RHNYA is 52 week new high/low ratio, so you can see that RHNYA on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2[/url] reached oversold level and never bounces back and then fails to be a good signal. 4 week new high/low ratio looks like making sense over the short term on the chart. Note the green line does not stay too long after diving down under blue horizontal line, and then it will bounce back above the blue line. Now the green line goes under the blue line again, which means the market may bounce back up.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s132765947]&disp=P]3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)[/url]. The only negative signal for bulls today is that TLT rallied, and it was going up even when the market was bouncing back significantly prior to the close. This is suspicious, and we should be cautious.

Posted by Cobra at 7:44 PM 1 comments

Monday, November 17, 200811/17/2008 Market Recap: No Title
Not so much to talk about today, we may just take a look at a few charts. I think the market may have a chance to bounce back in the short term, and it may be too late to short or exit long positions.
NYSE - Issues Advancing. It is oversold, and the worst scenario mentioned in the weekend was delay of three days in October. Today is day one, let's see how long it will delay this time.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url]. As some readers pointed out, VIX closed with a black candle which has a high probability of reversal, Look at those places marked by green arrows, VIX might drop down. Especially when the rising wedge is broken, it will be a good news to the stock market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s155088707]&disp=P]2.4.6 NYSE Volume Advancing[/url]. On the chart every time after the positive divergence, a decent rally happened, and no exception so far.

Now SPY and TLT (bond) are almost mirrored trend. TLT has formed two consecutive Doji (the cross), and might reverse. This means SPY might bounce back up. In addition, SPY formed a shooting star which also has the odd of reversal.

0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights. Here is the overview of all signals. Today we have one more mid-term sell signal, which is the most important one -- NYSI.

Posted by Cobra at 8:03 PM 0 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 11:29

Sunday, November 16, 200811/14/2008 Market Recap: No follow-through but still a hope there is
It's a pity that there was no follow-through to the Key Reversal Day on Friday, and pattern of single up day holds very well.  Since it was Friday and the selling-off near the market close was very sharp, and the market closed at the low of the day, it might be an overreaction (http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008_10_01_archive.html first two articles), and the Monday may not be very bad.  You may remember that on Oct 17th the market also sold off near market close before the weekend, and then rallied significantly on Oct 20th.  Even if the market plunged on Monday, it might not be so terrible because the [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123447127]&disp=P]2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing[/url] is oversold.
On [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals[/url] there are several positive divergence which could be the last hope for the bulls.  In this weekend I did a research on rallies potentially caused by these positive divergences, and the result is not promising.  Unless the market is at a many-year bottom, very likely these divergences would only cause the rally to the starting point of November -- if we could ever see a rally -- for SPX, it is about 1000.
Conclusion: hopefully bulls who were trapped at 1000 could get out, but I have no idea if the Thursday low is a beginning of a tradable rally.
Firstly take a look at the oversold NYSE - Issues Advancing, and see how long the delay could be before a rally.  In the worst case (3 days of delay like what happened in October), long at Friday close should be able to get out.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Take a look at oversold short-term signals. Besides NYADV is oversold, VIX also breaks out ENV on Friday. By the way, the potential target of bulls is 95.53 which looks a bit tough, but you never know. If the intraday high by next Tuesday could be higher than 95.53, the situation will look fine enough.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. The pattern looks like a double top, and the potential target is almost the Thursday low. But maybe it's not that bad.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s111487104]&disp=P]1.5.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily)[/url]. Some readers ask whether it's time to get in the Chinese stock market. Frankly speaking, I have no idea. On the chart, RSI is overbought, STO reaches a level where the rally were rejected many times by the 50-day moving average. Also consider the descending channel and the resistance around 2000, the market should be due for a pullback, and then we can see if it can break the 50-day moving average.

Following is the research result on mid-term positive divergence.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals[/url], many positive divergence.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s155092144]&disp=P]2.4.7 NYSE Advance-Decline Volume[/url], obvious positive divergence on Breadth.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s138723415]&disp=P]8.0.8 SPX and MA200 in 2000-2003 Bear Market[/url]. Let's take a look at how those positive divergences played out in 2000 Bear Market. Conclusion, except for the last pullback in 2003 (note that it was a higher low, which is different from the lower low at the time being) other positive divergences indeed caused rally but no rally formed a higher high. So don't expect too much to the positive divergence on the mid-term signals. On the other hand, I am not saying there won't be a year end rally. On the chart [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s138723415]&disp=P]8.0.8[/url], 200-day moving average are challenged many times by the bear market rally. Hereby I want to show you that my research result disrespects the positive divergence as an evidence for mid-term bullish outlook.

Posted by Cobra at 1:22 PM 6 comments

Thursday, November 13, 200811/13/2008 Market Recap: Key Reversal Day
Accordig to Don Worden from Telechart, today is a Key Reversal Day. What he is arguing is as follows:

It must occur as the latest in a decline of at least several days.
It must carry into new low ground for that decline.
It must then rally to a level higher than the previous close. The higher the better.
It must close with an advance for the day.
It must close in the upper half of its own range for the day.
Volume must increase markedly.
There is no guarantee that a Key Reversal Day will kick off a significant rally, of course. But I have found it to be one of the more reliable technical patterns. This could be related to the fact that it occurs relatively rarely (especially in averages as opposed to individual stocks).

Concerning the further development of the market, there are two criterion, and one can refer to [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Basically it is still what I am talking about recently, three up days and three down days, and see which one has the bigger range. Therefore as late as next Monday, the high point must be higher than 95.53. If it succeeds, then the high point by the next Thursday must be higher than 100.71. If any one of two criterion doesn't meet, bulls would better run away. By the way, many newsletters were still waiting for the potential test of 2002 low until yesterday, so people should keep cautious.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124013638]&disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights[/url]. Oversold signals have been corrected today. Major mid-term buy signals are still there, and mid-term breadth signals are still oversold.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e123162280]&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily)[/url]. Considered the negative divergence, US dollar should pull back further. This means the extremely oversold commodities, especially the crude oil, may due for a pull back.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125508016]&disp=P]3.1.1 US Dollar Index (Weekly)[/url]. On the weekly chart, the US dollar reached the important resistance, and it seems not so easy to break out considered the oversold situations.

Here is an excerpt from today's Market Message by John Murphy, and he also thinks the commodities are due for rebound:

Chart 5 shows the Energy SPDR (XLE) beginning today's upside reversal from above its October low. That has created a short-term positive divergence between it and the price of crude (solid line). Given oil's close correlation to the stock market, oil (and most other commodities) should finally experience an overdue relief rally.

Posted by Cobra at 8:16 PM 7 comments

Wednesday, November 12, 200811/12/2008 Market Recap: Market Oversold
The market is oversold, and may bounce back in the short term. As mentioned about [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123447127]&disp=P]2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing[/url], it is oversold, and the worst scenario is rebound after three days, then the potential rebound will be as late as Friday. However you should take notice that oversold doesn't mean it is okay to bottom fish. Recently the market is at extreme condition and bottom-fishing based on oversold signals which are proven to be effective in the past is highly risky.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], all major signals are on this chart. Note the green dashed line, the tick of today's close is extremely negative. You may check out what the market did in the past after the similar extremely negative tick.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124013638]&disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights[/url]. Take a look at the overview of all signals. Many of them are green and look promising. However the mid-term buy signal may not hold should the market sell off further tomorrow.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. RSI is oversold, and this signal on 60-min chart is quite accurate as you can see what happens at the locations marked by green dashed line. In addition, the pattern on the chart looks like a standard Measured Move, and today's low has roughly reached the downside target, which means we have a hope.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url], the positive divergence of MACD and RSI looks quite impressive, which could cause a rebound.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days[/url]. Today is the third Major Distribution Day. According to the statistics, a big rebound is coming soon.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], 1665 stocks price down volume up, the market is oversold.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s131641892]&disp=P]1.4.2 S&P/TSX Composite Index (60 min)[/url], Canadian market looks oversold on the 60-min chart. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142228780]&disp=P]1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min)[/url], Bullish Falling Wedge on the 15-min chart, and MACD and RSI show positive divergence.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123162280]&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily)[/url], US dollar is overbought.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url], Yen is overbought too.

Posted by Cobra at 9:13 PM 5 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 11:31

Tuesday, November 11, 200811/11 Market Recap: The Hope of Rebound
Today we got a mid-term sell signal, but it is not very reliable recently. In the short term I think the market is due for a rebound as soon as tomorrow. The strength of potential rebound will help us to judge if the rally since Oct 28th is still alive.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123447127]&disp=P]2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing[/url]. It is a very reliable signal, which is oversold today. Therefore the market may likely bounce back up in the short term. By the way, in the past every time when this signal reaches the current level, the market always bounces back in the next day. Of course the recent few times the rebound showed up after a significant selling off, and in the slowest case the market bounced back three days after the signal (Oct 7th).

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url]. The dominant price-volume relationships today were 1430 stocks price down volume up, which means the market is oversold and due for a rebound in the short term.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126618051]&disp=P]1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min)[/url], Bullish Falling Wedge, and MACD and RSI show positive divergence.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Note the pattern of selling off recently is always two down days, there is no case of three down days. Therefore if the pattern is still valid, the market might bounce back. Of course one should also note that most likely the rally is a one-day job. Furthermore, STO at the top also reaches the level where the market bounced back previously.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s133859547]&disp=P]1.0.6 S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index[/url]. Three major indices have confirmed the mid-term sell signal today.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128581358]&disp=P]5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily)[/url]. Financials tested the lower edge of the triangle, it will make it or break it tomorrow.

Posted by Cobra at 9:42 PM 0 comments

Monday, November 10, 200811/10/2008 Market Recap: The Support
There is not so much to talk about today. As mentioned in the weekend report, today's market action can only reveal that the up strength is weak, and it could be a chance to flee away should the market go up tomorrow.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url] the pattern looks like a Bullish Falling Wedge and it seems going to breakout soon. So the market might bounce back up tomorrow. Also look at the green circles, every time the market reaches the support it always bounce back up with increasing volume. Therefore today's low is a very important support, and one should keep an eye on it. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697614]&disp=P]1.3.6 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 15 min)[/url], besides Bullish Falling Wedge, MACD and RSI also show positive divergence.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154636117]&disp=P]7.0.6 Trend Strength Watch[/url]. According to this chart, even if the market rises sharply tomorrow, it still means the upward momentum is relatively weak because the loss of two down days is covered by three up days. Therefore if the market rallies tomorrow, it could be good chance to sell short. On the other hand, if the support in [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4[/url] is broken tomorrow, the next support will be Oct 28th low. Therefore, the potential breakout should be a chance to sell short too.

Posted by Cobra at 9:23 PM 0 comments

Sunday, November 9, 200811/07/2008 Market Recap: Gauge the trend strength
As you know, I simply use the signals in [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals[/url] to determine the trading strategy in the intermediate term. Since the mid-term signals are still buy, the primary strategy should be buy dip at the moment. However, I don't think the rebounce on last Friday is a buyable dip. Unless market shows me some muscle by breaking out the 11/04 high on Monday, I tend to believe the market is going to have another down leg.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154636117]&disp=P]7.0.6 Trend Strength Watch[/url], this is the simplest criteria to judge the trend strength. The last Wednesday and Thursday are two down days, if after Friday and next Monday the market can cover all loss in previous two down days, up strength is stronger and I'm convinced. Considered the inside day pattern on Friday, it will be tough to recover all loss in the last week by the next Monday unless the market rallies massively. Therefore I don't think last Friday is a buyable dip. On the contrary, if the Monday rally is not big enough, long positions are better to be closed.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154693063]&disp=P]8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule[/url]. Let's see what is a Buyable Dip. According to this pattern, the last Friday is obviously not a buyable dip, is it?

Should the market rises significantly, won't we miss the buyable dip? Possibly, there is no 100% accurate signal. However, on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], VIX ENV is very close to oversold and NYMO isn't far from the overbought. Therefore, if the market indeed rallies on Monday, it will pullback very soon. This means we will see more chances of buyable dip. Don't be afraid of missing a chance, be safe first.

Will the market go up on Monday? It is hard to say.
The reasons for selling off:
INDU went up by 1% during the last 10 minutes on Friday, and this is the pattern mentioned in http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/10/late-day-market-surges.html which means the market will very likely go down in the coming few days.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url], the Dominant Price-Volume Relationships on Friday are 1586 stocks price up volume down, which means the market may go down on Monday or as late as Tuesday.

The reasons for rally:
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url], the pattern might be an ascending triangle. For SPY, the target of rebounce is possibly 96.46 which is right at Fib 61.8. This looks reasonable.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125508016]&disp=P]3.1.1 US Dollar Index (Weekly)[/url]. On the weekly chart, the US dollar reaches the resistance, and STO is sell signal already while the RSI is still overbought. Therefore the possibility of pullback is high and this is bearish to the stock market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128581358]&disp=P]5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily)[/url]. Note the Financials also forms a Symmetrical Triangle, and the 75% of chance is down which is bearish to the broad market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124844123]&disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily)[/url], Symmetrical Triangle, 75% of chance is breakout at the down side.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124844123]&disp=P]3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily)[/url]. The crude oil has broken out and this is not good. The potential target is marked on the weekly chart: [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125508321]&disp=P]3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly)[/url].

Posted by Cobra at 11:09 AM 4 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 11:33

Thursday, November 6, 200811/06/2008 Market Recap: No Title
Today all short-term overbought signals have been corrected. Look at the following chart, [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124013638]&disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights[/url], all short-term signals are neutral while the mid-term signals are still bullish. However, it seems not so good should the market dips further, especially if SPX tests Oct 10th low. Usually at the third time of testing low, the probability of holding is quite low, then the mid-term bullish signals are in danger of reversing. Therefore it is not wise to buy dip blindly and better to be cautious.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126618051]&disp=P]1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e126618206]&disp=P]1.2.3 Diamonds (DIA 60 min)[/url]. The selling off is right at Fib 61.8, and RSI is right at oversold level but no positive divergence yet. Therefore tomorrow morning the selling off might possibly continue.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697461]&disp=P]1.2.4 Diamonds (DIA 15 min)[/url]. MACD and RSI look a bit positive divergence but far from enough, which means the plummet might continue.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days[/url]. Today is the second major distribution day. As you know, the market may rally significantly after two or three major distribution days. So at least we have a hope although we don't know if the third major distribution day will appear.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url]. The bullish morning star on Yen has been confirmed today, and this is bearish to the stock market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125228382]&disp=P]2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio[/url]. According to the patterns in the past, I don't know if it means the descending trend is broken and the market is going back to the down trend. If this is true, the situation will be very bad and the Oct 10th low of SPX will very possibly lose. I am not completely sure about the chart (or I am not willing to believe in it), just for your information only.

Posted by Cobra at 9:08 PM 2 comments

Wednesday, November 5, 200811/05/2008 Market Recap: One day does not make a trend
Although the pullback today might be bigger than estimated, it is well expected considered the 6 days in a row and the remarkable negative divergence between price and volume. At the moment I tend to be consider the mid-term trend bullish, while the pullback might continue in the short term because the overbought signals have not completed corrected.
[url=http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals[/url]. I use the signals on the following chart to judge the mid-term trend. If most signals are buy, the game still is "buy dip". Of course, this doesn't mean one should rush in to buy dip if the market drops down for another 500 points.

[url=http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Concerning the short term, NYADV and NYMO are close to overbought, and the correction isn't sufficient so far. If the market goes up since tomorrow, it will be soon due for another pullback. So my conclusion is that the pullback may continue, and it will be considered as healthy unless it is too violent. On the other hand, it is not good if the market rises tomorrow because the market will be overbought again.

[url=http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. Usually the pullback target is at least Fib 38.2% and more often at Fib 50, which means 92.40 in this case.

[url=http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. RSI shows that the market is oversold in the short term. However you may notice that prior to a decent rally RSI and MACD will usually form a positive divergence. Today RSI just entered into the oversold region and has no chance to form a positive divergence yet. So the market might bounce back slightly in the morning and fall back down eventually for form a price bar lower low, RSI higher low, which is a pattern of positive divergence before the bounce back.

[url=http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url]. Bullish Morning Star is fairly accurate in candlestick patterns. So Yen may bounce back which is bearish to the stock market, and this means the stock market may pull back further.

Posted by Cobra at 9:29 PM 0 comments

Tuesday, November 4, 200811/04/2008 Market Recap: Market Overbought
Not much to say today, let's see how the market reacts to the election result. Technically speaking the market is extremely overbought and due for a pullback over the short term.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Look at the overbought indicator and see how similar those blue circles are.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697461]&disp=P]1.2.4 Diamonds (DIA 15 min)[/url], Bearish Rising Wedge, MACD and RSI show negative divergence. It should pull back.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111957]&disp=P]2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)[/url]. VIX is oversold. If it bounces back, the market should pull back also.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s153319737]&disp=P]7.0.6 SPX and VIX[/url]. SPX has not formed a higher high yet but VIX has a lower low now, which is a negative divergence. This chart is for your information only.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url]. Yen is oversold. Its potential rebound is bearish to the stock market.

Posted by Cobra at 7:10 PM 2 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 11:33

Monday, November 3, 200811/03/2008 Market Recap: Waiting Mode
Today is an inside day with low volume, and the market was waiting for the election result tomorrow evening. The following three charts show how the market went in the recent three election days. If the market consolidated with small candles prior to election day, it showed a big candle after that. Unfortunately the direction could not be predicted. From the perspective of technical analysis, the market is very overbought and will pull back sooner or later. Therefore if the rally continues tomorrow, it is prudent to lock a part of the profit and not to bet the big event. On the other hand, if the market pulls back tomorrow, it could be a chance to buy dip because once the overbought gets corrected, the possibility of rally on the day after tomorrow should be higher than the possibility of further rally tomorrow while the market keeps extreme overbought.

11/07/2000 election: this may make more sense because it was in a bear market. However the situation was unusual so the selling off afterward was expected.

11/05/1996 election:

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Several overbought signals on the chart, where NYMO and NYADV are very accurate.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s111434698]&disp=P]1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily)[/url]. It is overbought, and STO is at a level where it usually reversed in the past. Five up days with decreasing volume causes extreme divergence between the price and volume which are the most bearish. So it is due for a pullback.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url]. The dominant price-volume relationship today is 1159 stocks price up volume down. According to the statistics, the market will pull back tomorrow or as late as the next day. However because of the influence of election, this factor should be ignored temporarily in my opinion. For your information only.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s148778154]&disp=P]1.4.4 TSE McClellan Oscillator[/url]. Canadian market pulled back today but it is still overbought which can be seen on the breadth.

Posted by Cobra at 9:44 PM 2 comments

Saturday, November 1, 200810/31/2008 Market Recap: intermediate-term up, short-term SHOULD pullback
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals[/url]. All mid-term signals are there, which means the next game is to buy dip.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. In the short term, there are many overbought signals, so theoretically the market is due for a pullback. If it doesn't pull back (intraday pullback counts), do not chase high. You may check out what happened previously in the similar setup marked in blue circle.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126618051]&disp=P]1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126618206]&disp=P]1.2.3 Diamonds (DIA 60 min)[/url]. Note that the resistance on RSI always hold, which is not good.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697461]&disp=P]1.2.4 Diamonds (DIA 15 min)[/url], Bearish Rising Wedge, MACD and RSI show negative divergence. So the market might pull back on Monday.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s111434698]&disp=P]1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily)[/url]. The volume decreased for four days during the rally of four days. This is a typical of price-volume divergence, so the market is due for a pullback.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154177886]&disp=P]2.4.5 NYSE - Tick[/url]. This chart is recommended by a reader of my blog. Note the blue curve at the current level predicts a high possibility of pullback.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url]. It seems Yen gets a support by 20-day moving average, so it may bounce back which means the stock market is due for a pullback.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e142228780]&disp=P]1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min)[/url]. Bearish rising wedge on the Canadian market, MACD and RSI show negative divergence as well. So it may pull back.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s148778154]&disp=P]1.4.4 TSE McClellan Oscillator[/url]. It is overbought.

Posted by Cobra at 9:02 PM 3 comments

Thursday, October 30, 200810/30/2008 Market Recap: Last chance for up 2 days in a row in Oct
No comments to the mid-term trend today since we have not seen any big pullback to challenge the previous conclusion. Over the short term, tomorrow or the next week the market might pull back. Therefore it is better not to chase should the market rally tomorrow.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. The recent two candles are quite bearish, bearish shooting star and bearish hanging man, so pullback may happen tomorrow. In addition, SPX has never gone up for 2 days in a row in October, and tomorrow is the last chance. Let's see if the pattern of single day rally in October can be broken tomorrow. Furthermore, today is an inside day, which means the second day might be a drop according to the statistics by a reader. Although I do not think this evidence is strong enough, the chart does show it.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. Today RSI didn't break the resistance.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s111434698]&disp=P]1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), 1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily)[/url]. In the three days of rally, the volume is decreasing. As mentioned earlier, this pattern has a high probability of pullback.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125997542]&disp=P]1.1.3 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily)[/url]. STO hits the record resistance level on the chart. So the probability of pullback is high.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url]. Today 1789 stocks were price up volume down, which is the most bearish one among four price-volume relationships. The statistics shows that, tomorrow or as late as the next Monday the market will pull back.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123237122]&disp=P]2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator[/url]. NYMO is too close to overbought level, and this clearly tell us why it is not a good idea to chase the rally tomorrow.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s146756206]&disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio[/url]. CPC has been lower than 0.8 for two days, which is too bullish to be good.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122111676]&disp=P]3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield[/url]. Usually this chart says the market is at a top. Just for your information, no further comments. The past history of this indicator is shown on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s137695390]&disp=P]8.0.4 Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2005-2008[/url] to [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s137696214]&disp=P]8.0.5 Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2001-2004[/url]. The conclusion is that the timing for market bottom is accurate, but timing for top can be one month earlier.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s153530625]&disp=P]3.0.2 TED Spread[/url]. FYI only, I don't have a concrete conclusion. It is good that LIBOR is falling, but 3 month T-bill Yield is also falling, I don't know whether this means the further rate cut or big moneys are short of fund.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142228780]&disp=P]1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min)[/url], MACD and RSI show negative divergence, so Canadian market will likely pull back.

Posted by Cobra at 9:40 PM 1 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 11:34

Wednesday, October 29, 200810/29/2008 Market Recap: 3 intermediate term buy signals
The bad news is that we still have not seen two up days in a row since October. However the good news is we get several intermediate term buy signals. As far as tomorrow is concerned, the daily chart is relatively bearish but there is no sufficient evidence to predict the market will definitely pull back tomorrow.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s151642075]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPY Mid-term Trading Signals[/url]. MACD, BPSPX, and NAMO are all buy signals, except for NYSI which is still not.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s133859547]&disp=P]1.0.6 S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index[/url]. The buy signal of BPSPX has been confirmed by all three major indices. Previous two signals were proved to be whipsaw, hopefully the third time is not.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s140603435]&disp=P]1.2.6 INDU leads the Market[/url]. It does not really mean INDU leads the market. What I mean is that, according to the chart in the recent one year, the progress of INDU is almost always ahead of other indices. Tomorrow INDU showed a higher high ahead of others, which is a good sign, and the next step is to see if other indices follow. By the way, while SPX and COMPQ were still lower lows, INDU clearly showed higher highs which is also a good sign.

With the aforementioned mid-term signals and two major accumulation days on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days[/url], the probability of mid-term rally should be relatively high. Should the market pull back, we will get more evidence according to how far the pullback goes.
Tomorrow the market might pull back, but I am not very sure.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Today the candlestick pattern is bearish shooting star, which has a high likelihood of trend reversal, so the market may pull back tomorrow. Of course, this pattern requires a confirmation on the next day, the pullback cannot be proved by itself.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. This chart clearly shows that today's pullback happened while testing the gap resistance, and this is quite reasonable. Note that the resistance on RSI seems effective. If the market pulls back further tomorrow, a possible scenario is to kiss back the breakout point at the upper edge of descending triangle, which is seen very often after the breakout.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s146756206]&disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio[/url]. Although it does not say the market will pull back for sure, CPC is over bullish today which is not good.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s130140412]&disp=P]1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily)[/url]. MACD gives a buy signal on the chart of Canadian market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s148778154]&disp=P]1.4.4 TSE McClellan Oscillator[/url]. There are two buy signals on the chart.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142228780]&disp=P]1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min)[/url]. However Canadian market may likely pull back tomorrow because of the negative divergence on MACD and RSI.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url]. As pointed out by readers, because there are so many gaps on FXY chart, gap down cannot be considered as an island reversal. This doesn't mean Yen won't pullback, it only says the terminology of island reversal isn't accurate.

Posted by Cobra at 10:05 PM 0 comments

Tuesday, October 28, 2008Extremely low $TRIN readings
One of my friends pointed out today that $TRIN reading was ridiculously low. So what does this mean. Check the following chart. Compare the low with the green curve on the background which represents $SPX. Seems to me the extremely low readings of $TRIN always associate with the market bottom.

Posted by Cobra at 9:50 PM 0 comments

10/28/2008 Market Recap: Follow-through Wanted
Today is a major accumulation day ([url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days[/url]). As I mentioned in the past, I am not sure if Sep 30th can be considered as a major accumulation day, thus I tend to consider today is a follow-through Major Accumulation Aay since the Oct 13th Major Accumulation Day. Therefore according the history record, the market could rise for 22% on average within 60 days from today's close. For more information, one can refer to Sep 30th's market recap. Once again, I have to emphasis that no signal is 100% accurate, on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124013638]&disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights[/url] all mid-term signals are still sell. So you have to do your own due diligence to see if two major accumulation days are sufficient for mid-term buy.

Tomorrow is critical. I have mentioned that the market has never up for two days in a row in October. If tomorrow we could see a follow-through, it would be a milestone. Of course, even the market rallies tomorrow we still need a higher high to confirm the trend reversal. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url], read the comments on the chart and you will know what I am talking about.

Will the market rally tomorrow? On the chart it seems the market could pull back at least in the morning. Whether or not the market could close in green, we have to see how the market reacts to the rate cut by the Fed. Very likely at 2:15pm when Fed declares the rate cut, the market may swing violently.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. This is why the market is due for a pullback in the morning, because the RSI is deeply overbought.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. Note the RSI is on resistance. There are plenty of information on the chart, the bad news is heavy resistance is at above, just look at three gap resistance. The good news is descending triangle seems having broken out on the upside. Furthermore, MACD and RSI show obvious positive divergence which usually means that SPY should have a decent upside room.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url]. Island reversal is formed on the chart of Japanese Yen today, which is a good news to the stock market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s144322189]&disp=P]3.2.4 Yen RSI and the Market Top/Bottom[/url]. Once again I would like to show that it is effective to judge the market top/bottom based on oversold RSI of Yen. By the way, recently many signals stop working except for three signals, and this chart is one of them. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123447127]&disp=P]2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing[/url] which uses 5-day moving average to judge the oversold is another one (fore more details please read yesterday's market recap). The last one is [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days[/url] which says the market should rally significantly after two to three major distribution days, so far it works.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s131641892]&disp=P]1.4.2 S&P/TSX Composite Index (60 min)[/url]. The chart of Canadian market looks like a bullish falling wedge, and MACD and RSI show positive divergence, so it may bounce back up.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124844123]&disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily)[/url]. The gold is an ascending triangle, and the upside breakout is more likely.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126630325]&disp=P]3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min)[/url]. MACD and RSI show positive divergence.

Posted by Cobra at 9:19 PM 4 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 11:35

Monday, October 27, 200810/27/2008 Market Recap: No Title
No so much to talk about today. Nothing new but oversold and the market might be due for a rebound should it be rational. I have to admit that those signals that I collected over the time had been very accurate in the past but they don't work very well recently. The problem is caused by the massive selling off from big moneys which are obviously in trouble, nothing can be improved before those big moneys stop selling. The criteria to judge the trend reversal is still the same, whenever the market rises for two days in a row, we start to hope.
What about tomorrow? The market might bounce back.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Recent pattern is one up day followed by two down days. Now we have two down days, so tomorrow might be an up day. Furthermore, recent two candles look a bit like bullish inverted hammer, and they stand above Oct 10th low, which means a reversal is possible.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123447127]&disp=P]2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing[/url]. Note the bold blue curve has entered into the oversold region. In the past NYADV had been quite accurate, the market always bounced back. Recently the timing is a bit off, however note that the rally on Oct 13th happened while this indicator was oversold. This means the overbought of this indicator is more effective than those ones in [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122118357]&disp=P]2.4.3 Breadth Oversold/Overbought Watch[/url].

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url]. Japanese Yen is overbought, in the recent two days black candles, which often causes reversal, compose a bearish harami. Therefore it might pullback, which is good for rally of the stock market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. It is still a descending triangle, and today SPY has touched the support fore three times which is considered as a confirmation. If tomorrow SPY rises and sells off eventually, then test the support for the fourth time, the support will likely break. Of course, the breakout of descending triangle is bidirectional, we cannot rule out the possibility of breakout at the up side.

Posted by Cobra at 9:35 PM 4 comments

Sunday, October 26, 200810/24/2008 Market Recap: Descending Triangle
Usually a bottom is not in place before VIX forms a reversal candle (e.g., black candle, Doji, etc), from this perspective the Friday low may not be a bottom. What about next Monday? There is a pattern recently, once it repeats the market should rise. Will be the third time different? I don't know.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Friday hollow red candle appears, then the next Monday opens high closes higher. In the past the third time is often different. So it is unknown how it goes this time.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url], the odd isn't at bulls' side, major indices all look like descending triangle (QQQQ has broken out), and the theoretical target is scary. However I am inclined to (or wish) believe the theoretical target is 2002 low. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e123837285]&disp=P]1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly)[/url], on the monthly chart, it would just take 1-2 days anyway given such a dramatic speed of falling down.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s144322189]&disp=P]3.2.4 Yen RSI and the Market Top/Bottom[/url]. Every time the RSI of YEN reaches overbought region, the market is close to a bottom or has a big rally. Now it is overbought again, and this is obviously a good news.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e125508321]&disp=P]3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly)[/url]. The crude oil seems being testing the long term support. Period.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126630325]&disp=P]3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min)[/url]. Oil dropped down on last Friday but MACD and RSI still show positive divergence.

Posted by Cobra at 8:49 AM 0 comments

Thursday, October 23, 200810/23/2008 Market Recap: 3 steps to confirm trend reversal
The rally at the end of trading hours shows that big money was defending the last Thursday low, nothing else. Tomorrow there is a way to see whether the market is willing to rise and how strong the strength is. As shown in the following chart, 3 steps are needed for mid-term trend reversal. First, we need an up day tomorrow, since SPX has never gone up for 2 days in a row since Oct, if tomorrow SPX rises, it will be a milestone. Second, it won't look good if the Monday high cannot be taken out should the market goes up tomorrow, because Tuesday and Wednesday the market was down, Thursday and Friday (suppose it will rise) the market was/will be up, if the rally cannot recover the loss in the previous two days, it means the upward strength is weaker than the downward strength. Third, the further confirmation is that Oct 14th high is taken out in order to form a real higher high, then the trend is confirmed to be reversed. After all, it seems quite tough to reach all three, and it's too early to relax and rise the up trend.

Short term signals:
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. Note the volume, the same scenario happened three times, which shows that big money was defending the last Thursday low. MACD and RSI at the top of the chart are positive divergence, so the possibility of further rally is pretty high.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. The symmetrical triangle was broken today, but big money was defending and the support held. Now it looks like a descending triangle. In general, for a descending triangle the possibility of breakout at the downside is higher. Especially the market has tested the support three times, if the support is tested for the fourth time, very likely the descending triangle will not hold.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126618051]&disp=P]1.1.4 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min)[/url]. QQQQ is very weak, and it formed a new low today. However MACD and RSI are positive divergence on 60-min chart, so it might due for a rebound.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url]. Today the dominant price-volume relationships are 1448 stocks price down volume up, which shows that the market is oversold and likely bounce back up.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s152163899]&disp=P]3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily)[/url]. Japanese Yen has reached a many-year high, but it is overbought. The doji today looks a bit toppy, and I believe it is due for a pullback, which is bullish to the stock market.

Mid-term signals:
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s140603435]&disp=P]1.2.6 INDU leads the Market[/url]. What the phenomena of INDU leading the market is that INDU is always ahead of other indices to be topped or bottomed. Usually INDU breaks out first, or forms a higher low while other indices are still lower low. This phenomena can be verified in the following chart, and it works well so far. Now look at the chart, while SPX and COMPQ have broken the last Thursday low and formed lower low, INDU is still a higher low, isn't it? This is a good news.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123237122]&disp=P]2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator[/url]. NYMO usually forms a positive divergence prior to the market bottom. Now we get a giant positive divergence. The red bars at the bottom of the chart do not have a new low which is lower than last Thursday while the market reached a lower low. This is also a good news.

Mid-term outlook is more and more encouraging. Of course it has to be confirmed by continuous strong rally.
Commodity:
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123162280]&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily)[/url]. US dollar formed a bearish reversal and should be due for a pullback, which is bullish for commodity.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124844123]&disp=P]3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily)[/url]. The target of double top pattern on GLD has reached, and it is oversold. Should US dollar pulls back as expected, GLD will bounce back up too.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126630325]&disp=P]3.4.3 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 60 min)[/url]. MACD and RSI show positive divergence, and it may bounce back up.

Posted by Cobra at 9:33 PM 4 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 11:36

Wednesday, October 22, 200810/22/2008 Market Recap: Lowest Close 2008
Today a bad news is that SPX has reached the lowest close in 2008, another one is that the symmetrical triangle we talked about before has broken out at the down side. At the market close SPX went back to the triangle, which means it must go up tomorrow otherwise the Oct 10th low will be in danger. Will the market rise tomorrow? If the market is rational, the probability of bounce back is high.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123447127]&disp=P]2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing[/url] chart is the only hope of bulls recently. NYADV has not shown a lower low so far, which is a characteristics of market bottom. Note the SPX close only chart at the bottom clearly shows that today is the lowest 2008 close.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. It has gone back to the triangle, but not much room to turn around.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124013638]&disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights[/url]. Take a look at today's signals, two mid-term buy signal have reversed to sell. Meanwhile several breadth oversold show up, again if the market is rational, these oversold signals are good news. However, given the current situation, I don't know when these signals will start to show their effects.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days[/url]. Today is the second consecutive major distribution day up to now. After two to three major distribution days, we know the market may bounce back up significantly. So far this pattern works well, but the problem is that we don't know if the third major distribution day will show up before the bounce.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url]. The dominant price-volume relationships today are 1721 stocks price down volume up, which shows that the market is oversold and due for a rebound.

Posted by Cobra at 8:49 PM 3 comments

Tuesday, October 21, 200810/21/2008 Market Recap: Inside Day
Today is an inside day, which means today's candle is completely inside yesterday's. As mentioned previously, inside day candle is like a string which stores energy, after a few inside days once the market breaks out it could be quite violent. Unfortunately, the direction of potential breakout is unknown today, so we have to see how it goes tomorrow.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. The symmetrical triangle on the chart has not broken yet. By the way, the chart also shows the trading tactic of consolidation area breakout (inside days usually form a consolidation area). Basically the narrower is the consolidation area, the better. Because the stop loss for a narrow consolidation area can be more close, the risk reward ratio is more favorite. In fact, recently the market is very volatile, and the consolidation area that we see today is quite big compared with the ones in the past.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. The gap on the chart has not been completely filled yet, and this is the first resistance SPX has to conquer should it breaks out at the up side. It has tried three times, and for the forth time it will likely succeed.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134697338]&disp=P]1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min)[/url]. QQQQ doesn't look so good because an important support was broken. However it has come back after the trading hours thanks to Apple's earning report. So the alarm is considered as off at the moment. Hopefully today's low will hold tomorrow.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123162280]&disp=P]3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily)[/url]. US dollar has broken out the ascending triangle, but it's overbought now. A strong US dollar is a good news for the stock market, but a bad news to the commodities.

Posted by Cobra at 10:09 PM 0 comments

Monday, October 20, 200810/20/2008 Market Recap: One more buy signal
Today we have one more mid-term buy signal, which means the market gets improved at least over the intermediate term. In the short-term, the volume is a bit weak today, and the market may pull back tomorrow or on the next day according to 1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships. However I think the possibility of further rally in tomorrow morning is quite high, which is critical.
Take a look at those signals first.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. With respect to MA10 Envelop VIX is oversold (yes, it is oversold after only one day drop), and the oversold RHNYA has been corrected. In the short term, for a long time we haven't seen two up days in a row. Let's see how it goes tomorrow.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s151642075]&disp=P]0.0.3 SPY Mid-term Trading Signals[/url]. NYMO at the bottom has given a buy signal, so now we have three mid-term buy signals on the chart. Take notice that the two most reliable mid-term signals, MACD and NYSI, are still sell signals although they are improved. If the NYMO buy signal doesn't go away, NYSI will give one soon.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s124013638]&disp=P]0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights[/url]. The overview of all signals is show as follows for your information.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s151687764]&disp=P]2.0.2 Volatility Index (60 min)[/url]. The pattern on VIX is likely a double top, and the negative divergence on MACD and RSI shows that VIX may drop down further, which is bullish to the market.

On [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url] the symmetrical triangle composed by the dashed lines was broken today. However we can still draw an enlarged symmetrical triangle which is confirmed by three points of touch. Therefore, as real as it gets, it is critical whether SPX can break the upper edge of this triangle. I don't think the triangle has been broken out today because the part outside of the triangle is tiny and within the error range. Should the market sell off tomorrow, this symmetrical triangle will be valid and dominate, and 75% chance of the breakout will be at the downside. In addition, RSI at the top of the chart seems be testing the resistance, which supports the possibility that the triangle won't be broken.

Is it possible that the symmetrical triangle will be broken out? Maybe. Note the RSI on [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. RSI rarely reverses after a single overbought/oversold. Usually it has to enter into oversold/overbought twice and form a divergence before reversal. From this perspective, RSI just went overbought and may pull back tomorrow morning. Afterward it might likely rise again and form a double overbought.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s142685381]&disp=P]1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships[/url]. The dominant price-volume relationships are 2100 stocks price up volume down, which is very bearish. According to the past statistics, the market may drop down tomorrow or as late as the next day. Therefore if RSI does go up for forming a double top, pay attention to the volume and be cautious to the day after tomorrow.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s146756206]&disp=P]2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio[/url]. CPC is a bit over bullish today. If tomorrow it drops further, be cautious on the next day.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s148778154]&disp=P]1.4.4 TSE McClellan Oscillator[/url]. A buy signal on the Canadian chart.

Posted by Cobra at 9:35 PM 2 comments

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-26 11:36

Monday, October 20, 2008$TICK closes above 1,000 means the market will close lower the 2nd day?
Just a note for myself, and share with you, my dear readers, as thanks for all kinds of info I've got from your feedbacks.
I read an article saying if TICK closes above 1,000 then very high chances that the 2nd day the market will close lower and the same is true for CPC if it closes around 0.8. Is it true? Check the following chart, see dashed lines, at least I don't see any edges here.

Today's Market Summary is ready, guess, my friend is busy translating it now, will be posted later.

Posted by Cobra at 8:43 PM 4 comments

Sunday, October 19, 200810/17/2008 Market Recap: No Follow-through
There is no concrete conclusion in this report, we have to see how the market goes next week.
We saw a bullish reversal on Thursday, but unfortunately no follow-through showed up on Friday. Many breadth signals (e.g., [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days[/url], [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122118357]&disp=P]2.4.3 Breadth Oversold/Overbought Watch)[/url] indicate that a bottom is highly likely in place, however no chart pattern has confirmed this so far, therefore one should not heavily long or short.
In the next week, the key market behaviors to watch are if the Thursday low SPX 865 will hold, and if Friday high SPX 984 will break out.
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[e126616985]&disp=P]1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)[/url]. During the weekend many people are talking about the symmetrical triangle on the chart. The pattern does look like a symmetrical triangle which means 75% possibility is breakout at the downside. However symmetrical triangles (as well as all trend lines) need a confirmation by the third point, you can see that we can also draw an ascending channel which has no third-point either. Therefore, it is probably too early to talk about the symmetrical triangle. Let's see how the market plays out next week.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. The selling-off at the end of trading hours on Friday could be considered as a bull flag, which is not too bad. There is a consolidation region near Fib 61.8 which may provide some supports.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s126618051]&disp=P]1.1.4 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min)[/url]. Just like SPY, the pattern could be either double bottom or descending triangle at this point of time, but the positive divergence on MACD and RSI looks good.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s131641892]&disp=P]1.4.2 S&P/TSX Composite Index (60 min)[/url]. MACD and RSI also show positive divergence on the Canadian market.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s133851241]&disp=P]2.0.1 Volatility Index (Weekly)[/url]. The rally of VIX has lasted for 8 weeks, and VIX is extremely overbought now. Period.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s153383721]&disp=P]3.0.2 TED Spread[/url]. Here is a poor man's TED spread. LIBOR is falling and UST3m is rising. Hopefully this good trend can continue in the next week.

Posted by Cobra at 11:26 AM 4 comments

Thursday, October 16, 200810/16/2008 Market Recap: Bullish Reversal Day
[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P]0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals[/url]. Technically today is a Bullish Reversal Day, and the last Friday low was successfully tested. But a follow-through tomorrow is still needed.

On the following chart, SPX has a higher low while VIX has a new high, and this is a positive divergence. This is great and many professional traders are waiting for this signal to resume trading.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s134696784]&disp=P]1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)[/url]. This chart shows the potential target and resistance should the rally continues.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s122118357]&disp=P]2.4.3 Breadth Oversold/Overbought Watch[/url]. Note that if the market becomes rational again, all extremely oversold breadth signals on the following chart have to be corrected. This means the rally will very likely continue. Among those signals, the current levels of NYA50R and NYHILO indicate a mid-term bottom under the normal market condition.

[url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=P]1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days[/url]. Previously I mentioned that Major Distribution Day means the market will rally for 22% within 60 days. A reader asked if past two Major Accumulation Day still count after getting a Major Distribution Day yesterday. The answer is yes. On the following chart, the Major Distribution Day between April and May did not affect the rally in May. On the other hand, I have a little bit concern to the first Major Accumulation Day in September, because it was manually made by market makers after an unexpected selling off ($700B bailout plan was rejected). Therefore it is better to have another Major Accumulation Day just to be safe. Concerning the forming of the market bottom, a research paper says that, the market is likely bottomed out if a Major Accumulation Day follows a Major Distribution Day. This is exactly what happened in the last week and this Monday, and so the market is very likely bottomed out. For your information, here is the excerpt of the article:

The historical record shows that 90% Downside Days do not usually occur as a single incident on the bottom day of an important market decline, but typically occur on a number of occasions throughout a major decline, often spread apart by as much as thirty trading days. For example, there were seven such days during the 1962 decline, six during 1970, fourteen during the 1973-74 bear market, two before the bottom in 1987, seven throughout the 1990 decline, and three before the lows of 1998. These 90% Downside Days are a key part of an eventual market bottom, since they show that prices are being deeply discounted, perhaps far beyond rational valuations, and that the desire to sell is being exhausted.

But, there is a second key ingredient to every major market bottom. It is essential to recognize that days of panic selling cannot, by themselves, produce a market reversal, any more than simply lowering the sale price on a house will suddenly produce an enthusiastic buyer. As the Law of Supply and Demand would emphasize, it takes strong Demand, not just a reduction in Supply, to cause prices to rise substantially. It does not matter how much prices are discounted; if investors are not attracted to buy, even at deeply depressed levels, sellers will eventually be forced to discount prices further still, until Demand is eventually rejuvenated. Thus, our 69-year record shows that declines containing two or more 90% Downside Days usually persist, on a trend basis, until investors eventually come rushing back in to snap up what they perceive to be the bargain of the decade and, in the process, produce a 90% Upside Day (in which Points Gained equal 90.0% or more of the sum of Points Gained plus Points Lost, and on which Upside Volume equals 90.0% or more of the sum of Upside plus Downside Volume). These two events – panic selling (one or more 90% Downside Days) and panic buying (a 90% Upside Day, or on rare occasions, two back-to-back 80% Upside Days) – produce very powerful probabilities that a major trend reversal has begun, and that the market’s Sweet Spot is ready to be savored.

Posted by Cobra at 8:28 PM 2 comments

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