一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Trading with the Trend: US Dollar IndexThe daily trend on the US Dollar Index flipped down on April 5th and entered a steeper downtrend following the April 17th gap down.

Knowing that the daily trend is down, it pays to drop to a smaller time frame to find spots to get short. Every countertrend rally on the hourly chart sets up a trade when the hourly downtrend resumes.

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| Time: 10:35 am (utc+8) Comments (3)


ETF to Watch — iShares Silver Trust (SLV)The new silver ETF began trading on April 28, and it’s already very actively traded quickly making my must-watch list.

The objective of the iShares Silver Trust is for the value of the shares of the iShares Silver Trust to reflect, at any given time, the price of silver owned by the iShares Silver Trust at that time, less the iShares Silver Trust’s expenses and liabilities.

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Stock to Watch — Jones Soda (JSDA)Jones Soda moved to a new high (on a remarkably weak day for the broad market) on over four times average volume. A company that names an energy drink “WhoopAss” clearly understands how to market to kids.

Jones Soda Co. engages in the development, production, marketing, and distribution of beverages primarily in the United States and Canada. Its primary product lines include Jones Soda Co., a premium soda; Jones Naturals, a noncarbonated juice and tea drink; Jones Organics, a ready-to-drink organic tea; and Jones Energy and WhoopAss, citrus energy drinks. The company sells and distributes its products through a network of independent distributors and national retail accounts, as well as through licensing and distribution arrangements. Jones Soda Co. was founded by Peter M. van Stolk in 1986. The company is based in Seattle, Washington.

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| Time: 7:56 am (utc+8) Comments (4)




Stock to Watch — Birch Mountain Resources (BMD)Birch Mountain moved to a new high on nearly three times average volume. The stock has gone sideways for awhile so the breakout bears watching. (BMD is an Albertan Oil Sands play.)

Birch Mountain Resources, Ltd. engages in the exploration of industrial minerals in Canada. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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| Time: 6:42 am (utc+8) Comments (0)

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hefeiddd

Looking at the daily stock price charts for Bank of Communications and China Construction Bank, I’d say the Chinese banking system must be hunky-dorry.

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• China
• Trading and Investing

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How to Lose Several Hundred Million DollarsFade this trend:

China Settles Most Losing Copper Bets, Traders Say

China covered the losing bets by delivering copper into warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange and by settling in cash … Copper in South Korean warehouses monitored by the LME, the most probable destination for Chinese shipments, has increased 16-fold in the past eight months to more than 100,000 tons.

Related:
Copper, Phelps Dodge, and the Elusive Liu Qibing
The Squeeze Goes On (Sung to the Tune of The Beat Goes On)
Checking Up on the Liu Qibing Squeeze
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| Time: 11:49 am (utc+8) Comments (4)


Stock to Watch — Washington Group (WGII)WGII moved to a new high on over 2.5 times average volume. The stock has gone sideways for a while so this is a decent looking breakout.

Washington Group International, Inc. offers integrated engineering, construction, and solutions worldwide. The company was founded in 1947. It was formerly known as Kasler Holding Company and changed its name to Washington Construction Group, Inc. in April 1996. Further, it changed its name to Morrison Knudsen Corporation in September 1996 and to Washington Group International, Inc. in 2000. Washington Group is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

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| Time: 11:41 am (utc+8) Comments (0)


May 9, 2006

Game Theory Assumes Mistakes Will Not Be MadeThe poker machine, by Tim Harford

What von Neumann showed in his ground-breaking 1944 book, A Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (written with economist Oskar Morgenstern), was that you should bluff only with your worst hands, rather than with something half-decent.
The reasoning is simple enough. A modest hand may beat another modest hand, so it’s worth limping along to a low-stakes showdown. A bad hand will only win anything if the opponent folds, so bad hands should be played aggressively or not at all; indeed, when the best players are caught running a huge bluff they are often holding the most atrocious cards. Von Neumann’s model also highlights the other benefit of bluffing: it forces the opponent to match your bids frequently, and so wins more money with strong hands.
Chris Ferguson was exposed to both poker and game theory at an early age. His family were avid games players, and his father was a maths professor who taught game theory at UCLA.
“If you want to play poker to make money, you’re doing it for the wrong reasons,” says Ferguson. “You have to love the game, and you have to like to work hard.”

This holds true for trading as well: If you’re in it to make money, you’re doing it for the wrong reason. You have to love the game, and you have to like to work hard.
Play Poker with SparBot
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Let the Winds of a Civilized Internet BlowStudents put China’s spin on Web, by Howard French

Hu, one of 500 students at her university’s newly bolstered, student-run Internet monitoring group, is a cog in a different kind of machine, an ostensibly voluntary one that the Chinese government is mobilizing to help it manage the monumental task of censoring the Web.
While the larger Civilized Internet campaign all but requires companies to step forward and demonstrate their vigilance against what the government deems harmful information, the new censorship drive on college campuses shows greater subtlety and some might say greater deviousness, too.
It is here that the government is facing perhaps its most serious challenge: how to orient and maintain control of young people’s thoughts in a world of increasingly free and diverse information. And the answer relies heavily on stealth.

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• China
• Internet/Media

| Time: 9:13 am (utc+8) Comments (0)


Stock to Watch — SunOpta (STKL)SunOpta moved to a new high on over five times average volume. This small-cap stock has put in a huge move this year. Food, water, energy, and health care are all investment themes you should be thinking about.

SunOpta, Inc. primarily operates in the natural and organic food sectors of the food industry in the United States and Canada. Formerly known as Stake Technology, Ltd., the company was incorporated in 1973. It changed its name to SunOpta, Inc. in 2003 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.

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| Time: 8:26 am (utc+8) Comments (1)

Notable New Highs — May 8, 2006Actions Semiconductor, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Unicom, eLong, Focus Media, Petrochina… do you notice a pattern here?

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hefeiddd

Financials Set to Outperform?The Financial SPDR (XLF) and Regional Bank HOLDR (RKH) were both prominently on my new highs list. These two ETFs have been doing about as well as the S&P 500 since the bottom of the bear market (October 2002) — no better, no worse. I’m watching for a breakout in relative performance as money rotates into the financials.
(If you don’t understand what “relative performance” is, read this chat transcript.)

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| Time: 9:22 am (utc+8) Comments (8)


Hijacking an Entire BrandNext step in pirating: Faking a company, by David Lague

Counterfeiters set up what amounted to a parallel NEC brand with links to a network of more than 50 electronics factories in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. In the name of NEC, the pirates copied NEC products, and went as far as developing their own range of consumer electronic products - everything from home entertainment centers to MP3 players. They also coordinated manufacturing and distribution, collecting all the proceeds.
Counterfeiters carried NEC business cards, commissioned product research and development in the company’s name and signed production and supply orders. They also required factories to pay royalties for “licensed” products and issued official-looking warranty and service documents.
Some of the factories that were raided had erected bogus NEC signs and shipped their products packaged in authentic looking boxes and display cases. NEC said about 50 products were counterfeited, including home entertainment systems, MP3 players, batteries, microphones and DVD players.

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ETF to Watch — Euro Currency Trust (FXE)I noticed the Euro Currency Trust on my new highs list. This ETF is very thinly traded so I don’t pay attention to it, but if you wanted exposure to the Euro this seems like a pretty slick way to get it.

Euro Currency Trust, a currency-based exchange-traded product, trades on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares of the Trust are called “EuroCurrency SharesSM” and trade under the ticker symbol FXE. EuroCurrency Shares will track the price of the euro.

Original Press Release: Rydex Investments Launches New Euro Currency Exchange Traded Product on New York Stock Exchange
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Stock to Watch — Belden CDT (BDC)BDC moved to a new high on over five times average volume. The stock has been going sideways for while now so this breakout looks good.

Belden CDT, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of high-speed electronic cables, connectivity products, and related items worldwide. The company was founded by Joseph C. Belden in 1902 and is based in St. Louis, Missouri.

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Notable New High — April 27, 2006Financials! (Banks, Insurance, etc.)

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April 27, 2006
Inflate. Devalue. Tax.As GM Goes, So Goes the Nation, by Bill Gross

General Motors is a canary in this country’s economic coal mine; a forerunner for what’s to come for the broader economy … Because diminished labor cost competitiveness and excessive future unreserved liabilities are descriptive of both GM and the U.S. economy, GM’s efforts to survive and ultimately prosper should be our own as well.
…
Higher inflation, higher personal and corporate taxes, and a lower dollar point U.S. and global investors away from U.S. assets and toward more competitive economies less burdened by health and pension liabilities – those personified by higher savings rates and investment as a percentage of GDP. Need I say more than to sell U.S. assets and buy Asian ones denominated in their local currencies?

Correct. Billionaire Bill gets it.
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Sensitive Dependence on Initial ConditionsLegg Mason Value Trust: 1Q 06 Bill Miller Commentary

Is it any surprise now that oil is a six-bagger, that copper has quadrupled in the past four years, that silver has tripled in three years, as has sugar, that orange juice has doubled in the past two years, and that after the biggest commodity rally in 50 years, it is NOW that prices are “set to soar” and that pension funds are falling all over themselves to allocate a portion of their assets to commodities?
It is not an accident that despite the consultants being armed with data going back 50 years about how adding commodities to a portfolio can improve risk-adjusted rates of return, there was zero interest among pension plans and investors generally in owning them until very recently.
The reason to own commodities may be that one believes they provide equity-like returns with little correlation with equities. The time to own commodities is (or at least has been) when they are down, when everybody has lost money in them, and when they trade below the cost of production. That time is not now. The data showing the returns of commodities will look very different if you start measuring just after prices have tripled.
I can’t help but be skeptical of the advice to start or increase a position in commodities AFTER the biggest bull move in 50 years.

Excellent commentary from Bill Miller that everyone should read closely. (I made basically the same points he does, though much less articulately and with a fraction of the historical perspective, in my “when the ducks quack” post about the DB Commodity Index ETF.)
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• Energies
• Metals
• Agriculture

| Time: 10:31 am (utc+8) Comments (5)


Only Boneheads Pull Their StopsMy Path to 100 R in Profits from Day Trading, by Trader Mike
Mike wrote a great post where he reviews the statistics from his last 543 day trades. Of special note (emphasis mine, ‘R’ means ‘initial risk’):

# I had 288 losing trades for a total of -243.96 R or an average of 0.85 R.
# Due to slippage and commissions a 1R loss may get as large as -1.3R. I had 18 trades that were 1.3 or larger losers for a total of -38.31 R. On 10 of those I pulled my stop.
# The seven biggest losers all got so large because I pulled my stop. They ranged from a 1.88 R loss to a 6.6 R loss.
# I gave away about 16 R just b/c I couldn’t take the small loss and pulled my stop. (No more of that!) The average loss drops from 0.85 to 0.79 (a 7% reduction) without these extra losses from pulling stops.
# The largest loser (6.6 R), on which I pulled my stop, was a long.

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| Time: 9:52 am (utc+8) Comments (5)


ETF to Watch — MSCI Mexico (EWW)I’ve been keeping an eye on Mexico because it has been going sideways for a good many weeks. It finally moved up and out of the range on about twice average volume. Anyone who reviews my ETF Performance Tables knows that Mexico has been one of the best performing stock markets in the world the last couple of years.

The iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Mexican market, as measured by the MSCI Mexico Index.

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| Time: 9:12 am (utc+8) Comments (1)

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hefeiddd

Financials Set to Outperform?The Financial SPDR (XLF) and Regional Bank HOLDR (RKH) were both prominently on my new highs list. These two ETFs have been doing about as well as the S&P 500 since the bottom of the bear market (October 2002) — no better, no worse. I’m watching for a breakout in relative performance as money rotates into the financials.
(If you don’t understand what “relative performance” is, read this chat transcript.)

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• Trading and Investing

| Time: 9:22 am (utc+8) Comments (8)


Hijacking an Entire BrandNext step in pirating: Faking a company, by David Lague

Counterfeiters set up what amounted to a parallel NEC brand with links to a network of more than 50 electronics factories in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. In the name of NEC, the pirates copied NEC products, and went as far as developing their own range of consumer electronic products - everything from home entertainment centers to MP3 players. They also coordinated manufacturing and distribution, collecting all the proceeds.
Counterfeiters carried NEC business cards, commissioned product research and development in the company’s name and signed production and supply orders. They also required factories to pay royalties for “licensed” products and issued official-looking warranty and service documents.
Some of the factories that were raided had erected bogus NEC signs and shipped their products packaged in authentic looking boxes and display cases. NEC said about 50 products were counterfeited, including home entertainment systems, MP3 players, batteries, microphones and DVD players.

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• China

| Time: 9:01 am (utc+8) Comments (2)


ETF to Watch — Euro Currency Trust (FXE)I noticed the Euro Currency Trust on my new highs list. This ETF is very thinly traded so I don’t pay attention to it, but if you wanted exposure to the Euro this seems like a pretty slick way to get it.

Euro Currency Trust, a currency-based exchange-traded product, trades on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares of the Trust are called “EuroCurrency SharesSM” and trade under the ticker symbol FXE. EuroCurrency Shares will track the price of the euro.

Original Press Release: Rydex Investments Launches New Euro Currency Exchange Traded Product on New York Stock Exchange
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| Time: 8:31 am (utc+8) Comments (2)


Stock to Watch — Belden CDT (BDC)BDC moved to a new high on over five times average volume. The stock has been going sideways for while now so this breakout looks good.

Belden CDT, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of high-speed electronic cables, connectivity products, and related items worldwide. The company was founded by Joseph C. Belden in 1902 and is based in St. Louis, Missouri.

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ETF to Watch — MSCI Mexico (EWW)I’ve been keeping an eye on Mexico because it has been going sideways for a good many weeks. It finally moved up and out of the range on about twice average volume. Anyone who reviews my ETF Performance Tables knows that Mexico has been one of the best performing stock markets in the world the last couple of years.

The iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Mexican market, as measured by the MSCI Mexico Index.

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hefeiddd

April 27, 2006
Stock to Watch — CSG Systems (CSGS)CSGS moved to a new high out of a nicely rounded “bowl-shaped” consolidation on over twice average volume.

CSG Systems International, Inc. provides outsourced billing, customer care, and print and mail solutions and services for the converged broadband and direct broadcast satellite markets in North America. CSG Systems was founded by Neal C. Hansen and Dr. George Haddix in 1994. The company is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

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| Time: 8:57 am (utc+8) Comments (0)


Notable New Highs — April 26, 2006Goooooold, yesh yesh yesh yesh. Including Vista Gold which the Chairman featured when it broke above $5.25… it’s over $9 now.

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April 26, 2006
Stock to Watch — Chubb (CB)Chubb moved to a new high on over twice average volume. You can see the stock has gone sideways for the last half year, so this breakout looks good.

The Chubb Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance to businesses and individuals worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Commercial Insurance, Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance. The company was founded in 1882 and is based in Warren, New Jersey.

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Notable New Highs — April 25, 2006
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April 25, 2006
Artful NoodlesI got a new restaurant idea from this interview with Guo Yue: Tian He Sheng (Jing An Li No. 45, Tel. 6468 7967). I’ll post a review after I eat there (probably after the May Day holiday). Interestingly Guo recommended Noodle Loft, where I will have lunch with my friend Ivy tomorrow.

One of the best new restaurants is Mian Ku Noodle Warehouse (Da Wang Bai Zi Wan Road No. 18, Tel. 6774 9950). It’s modern inside, but the chefs are from the countryside and demonstrate that making noodles is a work of art. On my last visit, a chef created a single noodle 35 metres long, which he stretched and tossed into a vast pan of boiling water in a manner that was like dancing. They make about 30 different sauces to accompany the noodles. These skilful craftsmen are the closest thing to celebrity chefs in China.

I’ll write a post about Noodle Loft for sure.
UPDATE: Back from lunch at the Noodle Loft. It was very noisy and smoky (most restaurants in China are smoky, but this place was especially so, which is a good trick given its high ceiling). The service was weak. The noodles were OK, nothing great. I call this kind of cooking “haute peasant,” which appeals to a lot of the nouveaux riche in Beijing (but not me). RMB72 (almost exactly $9) for lunch for two. Ivy wasn’t impressed. We were disappointed and won’t be going back.
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Relief from Shaving Cream HellThe Shaving Cream Racket, by Jeffrey Tucker

Shaving cream is the source of the trouble.
Why don’t people imagine this possibility? Because shaving cream seems so frothy and innocent, the glorious barrier that stands as a guard or shield between your skin and the sharp blade. The cream is our valiant protector, so surely that is not the source of the problem!
In fact, it is not our protector. Shaving cream is destroying your skin, turning it into a whining, pathetic, dependent, beaten, insipid layer of pasty pulp. Your skin has become the fatted calf that has been killed, the lamb slain on the altar, the virgin sacrificed in some ancient cannibalistic ritual of an uncivilized people.

Not sure if Tucker is a nutter or not, but I’m willing to give the baby oil trick a shot. After shaving I look like I’ve gone 20 minutes in the Octagon with Bas Rutten — a bloody mess.
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• Personal

| Time: 12:37 pm (utc+8) Comments (10)


Popular Sentiment Growing Ever More ComplacentI was interested to read that “the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Survey showed bears outnumbering bulls by a 41% to 34% margin.” I think it’s unusual to have more bears than bulls (by any margin) in the AAII survey.
My own sentiment index, which is based on a media survey, is showing a very different picture.

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• Trading and Investing

| Time: 10:26 am (utc+8) Comments (13)


China’s Looming Talent ShortageSearch for talent in China is getting tougher, by David Lague

China’s headlong economic growth outpaces the supply of qualified professionals and managers … Despite turning out more than three million graduates a year, Chinese universities and colleges cannot keep up with demand from an economy that has been galloping ahead at nearly 10 percent a year for most of the past two decades.
And, employers complain, many graduates lack the skills and experience necessary to start work immediately, particularly for foreign companies.
Poor English and general communication skills are seen as the most serious barrier for graduates seeking work in multinational or joint- venture companies.
“Good senior local people are as precious as diamonds.”

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• China

| Time: 9:19 am (utc+8) Comments (2)


Disparate Propaganda Campaigns in Search of a Central ScriptChina’s many messages to quell unrest, by Robert Marquand

Gone are the days when the Party can dominate and speak with one voice by proclamation every waking moment. Daily life and “public space” continues to diversify. Chinese are busy - looking for a better job, a husband, a wife, English or music lessons for the kids, a business partner, a factory or construction site for a job.

Great article by Marquand, which includes a table listing the “eight honors, eight disgraces.” I’ve found that many Chinese I know aren’t interested in Mao, Confucius, or Buddha, but a character named Jesus Christ really appeals to them… go figure.
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Stock to Watch — BankcorpSouth (BXS)BXS moved to a new high on over 3.5 times average volume. The stock has been going sideways for a good long time so this breakout looks good.

BancorpSouth, Inc. operates as the holding company for BancorpSouth Bank, which provides commercial banking and financial services in the United States. As of March 23, 2006, the bank operated 271 banking and mortgage locations in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas. BancorpSouth was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Tupelo, Mississippi.

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April 24, 2006
Stephen Roach’s “Newfound Optimism” and a Perfectly Picked TopI thought it would be fun to point out that Stephen Roach turned bullish on bonds precisely at the top.
The Optimism of a Pessimist, by Stephen Roach

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| Time: 11:06 am (utc+8) Comments (9)


Measuring and Interpreting Economic Data in a Global EconomyBubble, schmubble - foil or trouble?, by Patrick Smith

Two economists, Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard University and Federico Sturzenegger of Harvard and the Universidad Torcuato di Tella in Buenos Aires, say that current account statistics mismeasure a country’s financial position because they are based on the geographic origin of goods - an outmoded concept.
In a globalized economy, exports from China, for example, may well add to the profits of a U.S. company like Motorola, which sends management know-how and technology to China - assets that are unaccounted for in the numbers. Borrowing the term dark matter from physics, the two economists call this the hidden wealth of U.S. companies with such assets abroad.
“When we apply our methodology,” the authors wrote in a much-circulated paper, “we find that the U.S. has run no current account deficits over the last two decades and that global imbalances are relatively small and very stable.”

Correct. And it makes you wonder why Stephen Roach still has a job.
Here’s an excerpt from a chat last summer:

CMaoxian: Stephen “the Ultimate Post-Bubble Payback” Roach!
Isasia1: funnily enough he recently capitulated on his us bond short position
Isasia1: ‘position’
CMaoxian: YES AND I’M TERRIFIED THAT HE SWITCHED
Isasia1: and went long
CMaoxian: i’ve been trying to date his switch so i can post a chart marking the absolute top in the bonds
Isasia1: lol

See: Stephen Roach’s “Newfound Optimism” and a Perfectly Picked Top
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Gasoline Price Approaching Inflation-Adjusted Record High

The national average for self-serve regular unleaded gas was $2.91 a gallon on April 21, only 10 cents shy of the all-time high of $3.01 reached last September, in the aftermath of Gulf of Mexico storms that disrupted oil and gasoline production. As high as prices may seem, the average price last week is still 15 cents below the record inflation-adjusted high of $3.06 reached in March 1981.

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April 23, 2006
ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending April 21, 2006
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ETF Performance Table — Week Ending April 21, 2006The Biotech HOLDR reversed after having been in an uptrend since April 2005.

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Buying Great Businesses at Reasonable PricesWeitz Funds March 31, 2005 Letters to Shareholders
Wally explains why he’s investing in “old media,” “faded growth stocks,” and financial services companies.

New investment ideas are, almost by definition, unpopular at the time we find them.
Our willingness, even eagerness, to average down when we believe in an investment is completely counter-intuitive to many investors. They are puzzled when we say, “Good news, our stocks are down.” Don’t get me wrong — we are after profits — but we really believe that buying good businesses when their stocks are depressed is the way to maximize profits in the long run. As long as the down-ticks are temporary, the lower the stocks go, the better. We will be out of step at times, and the past year has been one of those times, but we do not think we could have out-performed the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 over the past 23+ years if we had chased short-term performance.
We continue to believe that excessive credit creation and speculation in both real estate and securities markets will cause some anxious moments, at best, and possibly some serious financial distress for the stock market over the next few years. We are not cheering for trouble, but we think it is important to be prepared, just in case. So, we have continued to focus our portfolios on companies with strong balance sheets and managements that are flexible enough to deal with both favorable and hostile business environments.

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| Time: 12:20 pm (utc+8) Comments (4)

April 22, 2006
Stock to Watch — Labor Ready (LRW)Labor Ready moved to a new high on nearly four times average volume, and it’s approaching its all-time high as well.

Labor Ready, Inc. and its wholly-owned subsidiaries provide temporary employees for lifting, hauling, cleaning, assembling, digging, painting, and other types of manual or unskilled work. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.

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hefeiddd

Stock to Watch — Healthcare Services Group (HCSG)HCSG moved out of a nice-looking “ascending triangle” to a new high on about twice average volume.

Healthcare Services Group, Inc. provides housekeeping, laundry, linen, facility maintenance, and food services to nursing homes, retirement complexes, rehabilitation centers, and hospitals in the United States and Canada. The company was incorporated in 1976 and is based in Bensalem, Pennsylvania.

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CMaoxian: All you do is divide the price of one stock or ETF or index or whatever by another.. thus the name “ratio chart”
CMaoxian: so you can see how the one is performing relative to the other
CMaoxian: they’re often called relative strength comparisons but i avoid that term because it causes confusion with Welles Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI)
CMaoxian: here’s a weekly chart of the Pharmaceutical HOLDR divided by the S&P 500 (SPY): PPH/SPY
CMaoxian:
CMaoxian: the gray line is the relative performance (PPH/SPY), the red line is a 13 week moving average, the blue line a 52 week moving average
6thworld: so what we have with PPH then is a declining performance rel to the SPY as it moves sideways
6thworld: so are we to read in this that price has stabilized and its way oversold?
CMaoxian: I don’t like the term “oversold.” Better to say Big Pharma has been “out of favor” for awhile now
6thworld: so CM, you think PPH has bottomed based on the sideways price action
CMaoxian: Until the PPH’s relative performance improves, it’s an area of the market to avoid
CMaoxian: i’m pointing out that by using the rel perf chart you can see how badly PPH has underperformed… the opportunity cost of holding it these many years has been great
Babak: ok, so what you’re saying is that if someone was long PPH they might not understand the opportunity cost they are incurring because it just goes sideways
CMaoxian: right, Babak
CMaoxian: that said, i’m a fan of Big Pharma because i see a lot of value there
CMaoxian: my wife thinks that “the rules of the game have changed” for Big Pharma but what does she know?
CMaoxian: incidentally she told me to sell all our tech stocks in March 2000 and buy real estate in China during SARS, (I refused to do either one), but what does she know?
Bill: brilliant
Spock: guess she never checks your transcript?
eyal: then u could have really retired ;-)
CMaoxian: no spock, she has more important things to do lol
Spock: ;-)
6thworld: CM, i’m with you on Big Pharma
CMaoxian: And that worries me, 6th ;-)
Babak: she was also right about digital photog ;o)
CMaoxian: here’s a chart for the MidCaps, S&P MidCap 400 divided by the S&P 500: MDY/SPY
CMaoxian:
CMaoxian: so you can see midcaps have been outperforming for a very long time
Babak: bloody missile
CMaoxian: here is the S&P SmallCap 600 compared with the S&P 500: IJR/SPY
CMaoxian:
CMaoxian: SmallCaps have been outperforming for what feels like forever
CMaoxian: the beauty of these ETFs is that they’re super-liquid
CMaoxian: here’s a chart of the Consumer Staples SPDR compared with the S&P 500: XLP/SPY
CMaoxian:
CMaoxian: you can see that during the bear market the Staples outperformed (defensive)
CMaoxian: and since the bull market began in 2003 they’ve underperformed miserably
CMaoxian: so as long as the relative performance of the Staples is trending down you don’t want to touch them
CMaoxian: ditto the Pharmaceuticals
CMaoxian: you
CMaoxian: Here’s the chart of the Dow Jones US REIT Index divided by the S&P 500: IYR/SPY
CMaoxian:
CMaoxian: you can see that the bull run in the REITs is still going strong
CMaoxian: you can also see that during the 2000-2002 bear market the REITS were just fine
vic: Sorry to join late. Chairman, what are your thoughts on real estate and gold
CMaoxian: they’re still strong, vic
roger: C. how about using relative performance to short the weakest stock in the weakest sector
CMaoxian: yes roger, you could reverse the idea to find shorts
Ugly: check out this chart of NTRI compared with the SPY
CMaoxian: now here’s the very interesting chart of the Energy SPDR compared with the S&P 500: XLE/SPY
CMaoxian:
CMaoxian: see how the relative performance was flat for many years and then the breakout came in early 2004
eyal: CM, so are you scanning thru these to look for similar signs of breakout and outperformance?
CMaoxian: yes eyal
eyal: cool
CMaoxian: these charts are through last Thursday by the way
CMaoxian: the XLE moved to a new all-time high today but the chart doesn’t reflect that
eyal: yeah I saw it at the pump this morning
Spock: anyone think GS’s crude oil prediction of >$100 a barrel may happen this year or next?
CMaoxian: their guess is as good as mine, spock
Spock: i’m sure… but it’s at $72 now, incredible
CMaoxian: in inflation-adjusted terms, spock, it’s just so-so
CMaoxian: so personally i apply a trend following system to the relative perfomance chart for signals
6thworld: how?
eyal: do u use fuzzy for this or something else?
CMaoxian: here’s my chart where i apply the Fuzz to the relative performance chart
CMaoxian:
nsdq: CM what are your charts created in
CMaoxian: nsdq - Metastock
CMaoxian: so like all trend following things you get whipped around for awhile (sometimes years) but eventually you get a payoff (not always)
eyal: u gotta be damn tough to go through that 2002-2003 period :)
Babak: fuzzy=



Stock to Watch — Accredited Lenders (LEND)Since the Fed signaled the other day that they’ll stop hiking rates, the market has taken flight once again. LEND, a very interest-rate-sensitive stock, moved to a new high on over twice average volume.

Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. and its subsidiaries operate as a mortgage banking company in the United States and Canada. The company originates, finances, securitizes, services, and sells nonprime mortgage loans secured by residential real estate. The company was co-founded by James A. Konrath in 1990. Accredited Home Lenders Holding is headquartered in San Diego, California.

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April 19, 2006
Stock to Watch — Southern Copper (PCU)I thought I’d feature Southern Copper since it closed exactly at $100. After PCU traded above $20 back in September 2003, it hasn’t looked back.

Southern Copper Corporation engages in mining, processing, and producing copper, molybdenum, zinc, silver, gold, and lead. The company, formerly known as Southern Peru Copper Corporation, was incorporated in 1952 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

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April 18, 2006
Intraday Charts of ETFs Trading at New HighsI thought it would be useful to post the 130-minute charts of some of the strongest ETFs: Gold (GLD), DB Commodity Index (DBC), US Oil (USO), and the WilderHill Clean Energy Index (PBW).




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Stock to Watch — NAVTEQ (NVT)NAVTEQ moved to a new high on over 1.5 times average volume. The weekly chart has a nice “ascending triangle” look to it, with a projected move (a.k.a. wild guess) to about $65.

NAVTEQ Corporation engages in creating, updating, enhancing, licensing, and distributing digital map database in North America and Europe. The company was founded in 1985 under the name of Karlin & Collins, Inc. and changed its name to Navigation Technologies Corporation in 1987. Later, its name was changed to NAVTEQ Corporation in 2004. NAVTEQ is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

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Relative Strength Comparison: SPY vs EFAThe thick blue line on the chart below shows the S&P 500 (SPY) divided by the MSCI EAFE (EFA), normalized to start at zero on July 26, 2002. You can see how terribly the S&P 500 index has underperformed the MSCI EAFE index since the bottom of the bear market.
(EAFE stands for Europe, Australia, Far East)

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April 14, 2006
ETF to Watch — United States Oil Fund (USO)United States Oil Fund, LP - USO

The United States Oil Fund, LP is a commodity pool designed to reflect the performance of the price of West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, less expenses.

USO started trading this week. As you can see from the 15-minute chart below, it’s pretty active. You can get a copy of the prospectus here. The expense ratio is 1.20%. Along with the DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC), this an another new ETF I will watch closely.

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Stock to Watch — Threshold Pharmaceuticals (THLD)Threshold moved to a new high on over four times average volume after going sideways for awhile. For some reason I can’t reach stocktickr from China anymore, but this is the kind of stock I would add to my Watchlist there. (Could any readers who are based in China confirm with me that stocktickr is unreachable?)

Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a development stage company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia and cancer. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.

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Stock to Watch — Circuit City Stores (CC)Circuit City moved to a new high on over five times average volume after going sideways for awhile. Remember that CC traded much higher during the bubble (it hit $65 3/16 on March 30, 2000), so there are still plenty of folks “stuck” at current prices.

Circuit City Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of consumer electronics, home office products, entertainment software, and related services in the United States and Canada. As of May 31, 2005, Circuit City Stores operated 612 Superstores, five mall-based stores, and 967 retail stores. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

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Humble HerbieLearning from my mistakes, by Herb Greenberg

“Good concepts are not necessarily good money makers, especially in the hands of bad management.”

I would add that good concepts are not necessarily good money makers, even in the hands of good management.
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Stock to Watch — Providence Service (PRSC)Providence Service moved to a new high on nearly 25 times average volume. (This was a rare spot of brightness in an otherwise ugly market.)

The Providence Service Corporation engages in the provision and management of government sponsored social services in the United States. It provides home and community based counseling, foster care, and provider management services. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Tucson, Arizona.

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Notable New Highs — April 11, 2006A remarkably weak day… I had some difficulty assembling 20 Notable New Highs. Read this post if you’re still super-bullish.

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April 11, 2006
Stock to Watch — Vimicro Int’l (VIMC)Vimicro moved to a new high on over three times average volume. VIMC has a 6.75 million share float so it can move violently, for example jumping from about $8 to about $22 in a few month’s time. The brevity of its business description gives me pause, especially the based-in-Beijing bit.

Vimicro Corporation was founded in 1999 and is based in Beijing, China.

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Notable New Highs — April 10, 2006
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April 10, 2006
ETF to Watch — Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU)The weekly trend reversed in the Utilities SPDR, ending a run that began back in May 2003. The effect of higher interest rates is felt first in the Utilities before the broader market reacts. Folks who are unabashedly bullish should curb their enthusiasm.

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April 8, 2006
O2Diesel’s Wild RideO2Diesel (OTD) opened last Monday at $0.79 and closed on Friday at $2.82. Anyone paying attention to the Unusual Volume stock screens saw it from the beginning:

• Monday — 6.27x average volume
• Tuesday — 9.20x average volume
• Wednesday — 10.65x average volume
• Thursday — 8.60x average volume
• Friday — 30.75x average volume

Friday’s action is especially interesting because you can see that once price got above $1.50, things got crazy. It’s always useful to note obvious prices that are acting as a “cap” on the intraday chart, because as soon the sellers get taken out (or go away) things can move fast.

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Notable New Highs — April 7, 2006
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April 7, 2006
The Gray Lady Is Waiting for Inevitable OblivionStop the Presses, by James J. Cramer

To Wall Street, despite the Times’ unassailable brand name, the company’s got a real Sartre thing going, a total Huis Clos: static circulation, uneven ads, and a cost structure that, despite giant cuts to every division save online, can’t be right-sized without gutting the operation. A new generation is hooked on Google, and that $100 billion information-accessing behemoth has cut into the value of every bit of intellectual property produced by the Times’ vaunted newsroom.
The idea that cutting down huge Canadian trees and shipping giant wheels of newsprint south so it can be made into antediluvian broadsheets delivered door-to-door by expensive carriers is, alas, positively uneconomical, if not totally insane, in an era when anyone younger than 30 doesn’t want the thing in that package. The next generation wants it on PCs, they want it on Treos, they want it on iPods, for Heaven’s sake, but certainly not on newsprint.

Cramer’s “outrageous proposal” for the Times to go all-digital is right on the money.
- via TraderMike -
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ETF to Watch — iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)It looks like the TLT has formed a head and shoulders top. The measured move is a drop to about $81.

Taking a monthly view of the 30-year T-Bonds’ yield… long-term trend followers are paying very close attention now. (Remember that bond yields and prices are inverted.)

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Stock to Watch — Freescale Semiconductor (FSL)Freescale (Motorola’s old semiconductor division) moved to a new high out of a longish consolidation, though the volume was nothing special. I’m not a gadget guy, but I have to admit I am strangely attracted to the RAZR phone and may give in and buy one at some point. If I do, FSL will never trade higher again. ;-)

Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. engages in the design, development, and manufacture of embedded semiconductors for the automotive, consumer, industrial, networking, and wireless markets worldwide. It operates through three segments: Transportation and Standard Products Group (TSPG), Networking and Computing Systems Group (NCSG), and Wireless and Mobile Solutions Group (WMSG). The company was founded in 1953 and is based in Austin, Texas.

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April 8, 2006
O2Diesel’s Wild RideO2Diesel (OTD) opened last Monday at $0.79 and closed on Friday at $2.82. Anyone paying attention to the Unusual Volume stock screens saw it from the beginning:

• Monday — 6.27x average volume
• Tuesday — 9.20x average volume
• Wednesday — 10.65x average volume
• Thursday — 8.60x average volume
• Friday — 30.75x average volume

Friday’s action is especially interesting because you can see that once price got above $1.50, things got crazy. It’s always useful to note obvious prices that are acting as a “cap” on the intraday chart, because as soon the sellers get taken out (or go away) things can move fast.

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ETF to Watch — iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)It looks like the TLT has formed a head and shoulders top. The measured move is a drop to about $81.

Taking a monthly view of the 30-year T-Bonds’ yield… long-term trend followers are paying very close attention now. (Remember that bond yields and prices are inverted.)

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Stock to Watch — Freescale Semiconductor (FSL)Freescale (Motorola’s old semiconductor division) moved to a new high out of a longish consolidation, though the volume was nothing special. I’m not a gadget guy, but I have to admit I am strangely attracted to the RAZR phone and may give in and buy one at some point. If I do, FSL will never trade higher again. ;-)

Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. engages in the design, development, and manufacture of embedded semiconductors for the automotive, consumer, industrial, networking, and wireless markets worldwide. It operates through three segments: Transportation and Standard Products Group (TSPG), Networking and Computing Systems Group (NCSG), and Wireless and Mobile Solutions Group (WMSG). The company was founded in 1953 and is based in Austin, Texas.

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April 4, 2006
Stock to Watch — iPass (IPAS)IPAS moved out of its very long $5-$8 range on over twice average volume. Obviously there are a lot of folks “stuck” in this stock, so I’m not sure how excited to get about the breakout.

iPass, Inc. provides software-enabled enterprise connectivity and endpoint management services for remote and mobile workers worldwide. It offers iPass Corporate Access, which enables enterprises to provide their employees with secure Internet and corporate network connectivity over any access networks through a single interface. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Redwood Shores, California.

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ETF to Watch — PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (PBW)Like the PowerShares Water Resources ETF, this Clean Energy fund interests me. I wish I had learned of its existence about a year ago, but I wasn’t paying attention.
PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio

The PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio seeks to replicate, before fees and expenses, the WilderHill Clean Energy Index which seeks to deliver capital appreciation through companies that focus on greener and generally renewable sources of energy and technologies facilitating cleaner energy.

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March 31, 2006


Metals RoundupThe new highs list continues to be full of metals stocks, and I’ve featured quite a few metals-related companies in the Stocks to Watch posts recently, so I thought it would be useful to post charts of the metals themselves. Here are the weekly charts for Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, and Palladium:





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Stock to Watch — Schnitzer Steel (SCHN)The new highs list is once again filled with metals stocks. Schnitzer is notable because it moved above long-term, round-number $40 resistance on about twice average volume.

Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. engages in metal recycling, self-service used auto parts, and mini-mill steel manufacturing businesses in the United States. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.

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March 29, 2006
How I Use the CBOE Volatility IndexIn the old days it was possible to identify rampant fear in the market by using an absolute value for the VIX (I used 40). Since 2003 the volatility has been in permanent decline, so now instead of looking for extreme absolute values, I look for extreme relative values.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since its introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world’s premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility.
Visit the CBOE to learn more about VIX.

The last time the Volatility Index spiked up to a relatively high value was in October 2005. The ISE Sentiment Index and my own MaoXian.com Sentiment Index didn’t confirm the spike so I didn’t buy anything, which turned out to be a mistake.
The strongest sector in October 2005 was, you guessed it, Energy.

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Stock to Watch — Cosi (COSI)Cosi moved above round-number $10 to a new high on over four times average volume. The stock has been going sideways for a longish time, so I think this one looks good enough to add to my stocktickr watchlist.

Cosi, Inc. engages in owning, operating, and franchising premium convenience restaurants in the United States. As of January 2, 2006, the company had 101 restaurants in 17 states and the District of Columbia. Cosi, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is based in Deerfield, Illinois.

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Stock to Watch — Air Methods (AIRM)Air Methods moved to a new high on 1.5 times average volume. What do you think of the slope of its ascent since breaking above $10. Impressive, no?

Air Methods Corporation and its subsidiaries provide air medical transportation services and systems in the United States. The company also engages in the design, manufacture, and installation of medical aircraft interiors and other aerospace and medical transport products for domestic and international customers. As of December 31, 2005, the company managed and operated a fleet of 200 aircraft. The company was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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How I Use the ISE Sentiment IndexI watch the ISE Sentiment Index very closely because I’ve found it to be an excellent indicator. This is how the ISE describes it:

The ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE), which was introduced in December 2003, measures opening customer buy transactions in call and put options.The ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE) is designed to show how investors view stock prices. The ISEE only measures opening long customer transactions on ISE. Transactions made by market makers and firms are not included in ISEE because they are not considered representative of market sentiment due to the often specialized nature of those transactions. Customer transactions, meanwhile, are often thought to best represent market sentiment because customers, which include individual investors, often buy call and put options to express their sentiment toward a particular stock.

So it’s a great “dumb money” put/call ratio. Let me explain how I use it. When the put/call ratio goes above “1,” meaning that more than one put is being bought for every call, I know there’s a lot of fear in the market and I want to be a buyer. The last time this happened was in September/October 2004 — a long time ago! Public sentiment has been positive for a good long time now, but I’m patient and pick my spots carefully.
Back in September/October 2004 the Energies were the strongest sector of the market, so buying the Energy SPDR (XLE) or the Oil Service HOLDR (OIH) was a good idea then. You have to look to buy strength within weakness (no, that isn’t a zen koan). Here are the charts:


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Stock to Watch — Denbury Resources (DNR)Denbury moved above round-number $30 to a new high on over twice average volume. (DNR was around $3 a share at the beginning of 2002 before the great Energy Boom began.)

Denbury Resources, Inc. engages in the acquisition, development, operation, and exploration of oil and natural gas properties in the Gulf Coast region of the United States, primarily in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. Denbury Resources was incorporated in 1951 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

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March 24, 2006
The Anachronistic Banality of the Entire ConceitI couldn’t watch the Bourne Supremacy because the bouncy hand-held camera schtick combined with the quick cuts made this old man dizzy. I didn’t grow up with MTV and I have no patience for choppy, twitchy camera work. Give me Ozu’s stationary waist-high camera, please!
Stephen Hunter, my favorite movie reviewer bar none, got it right when he called it “utterly synthetic.”
The Bourne Supremacy (2004)
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Chat Transcript for March 23, 2006Thanks to everyone who participated in the chat. I featured some of the strongest Chinese stocks (listed in the US) and we got a chance to talk about stocktickr.

6thworld: so whats the occasion for holding a chat CM?
CMaoxian: just thought we could look at some Chinese stuff, 6th ,
Zoomie: been tryin’ to get in for 2 hours so i wouldn’t miss it ;)
CMaoxian: you’re a sweetheart, zoomie
Zoomie: 6th is here CM
6thworld: cool
6thworld: i was just reading up on Chinese history actually
6thworld: reading about the four beauties
CMaoxian: only four?
6thworld: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Beauties
CMaoxian: wikipedia is blocked from China
Zoomie: must be very interesting there
Zoomie: Nothing is blocked in Mexico……everything is encouraged
CMaoxian: yes, it’s fascinating but the air quality leaves something to be desired
Zoomie: In the big cities, yes
CMaoxian: I mean in China
CMaoxian: zoomie did you see those potential retirement places that were listed in Barron’s?
Zoomie: no
CMaoxian: i’m not sure if tradermike is coming, i think i wrote to the wrong email address to remind him
dividend: lol.
Dave: He’s a busy guy these days.
CMaoxian: zoomie - Panama, the Out Islands of the Bahamas, Nevis, the Dominican Republic, Malta, Croatia, Uruguay and Malaysia … nothing about Mexico
Zoomie: he usually mentions your chat on his site……
CMaoxian: and when he doesn’t only five people show up. ;-)
Zoomie: lol
Zoomie: Mexico is great
Zoomie: love the people….no tax….
6thworld: hey its the 5 that counts
6thworld: i didnt like Tijuana
Zoomie: that isn’t Mexico
CMaoxian: Do you guys all have stocktickr accounts?
6thworld: yes but i dont use it that much
dividend: chairman, what about stockdigg.com
6thworld: yeah stockdigg keeps showing up in my logs
CMaoxian: i linked to that the other week, dividend
CMaoxian: but i don’t use it nor do i see any traffic coming from it
Dave: What’s your site 6thworld?
6thworld: Dave: its dbreakfast.com
dividend: stocktickr.com?
CMaoxian: yes, div
CMaoxian: the number of sites i visit is very limited really
dividend: the best scanner would be the ones that alert before the moves occur ;-D
6thworld: is ugly gonna be here tonight?
6thworld: i want to ask him why he’s looking at the 1 min charts so much
6thworld: that would drive me nuts
CMaoxian: yeah, i’m not a big proponent of the 1-minute chart but to each his own
CMaoxian: i wrote to him but he didn’t reply… yet another diss ;-)
6thworld: hey you didnt write me! lol
CMaoxian: i knew you’d be here, 6th ;-)
6thworld: damn
6thworld: lol
dividend: ^– lol
scoot: i like 5 and 10 minute charts. but i look at them all.
CMaoxian: anyway, i’m gonna feature a number of Chinese companies that are listed in the US
Dave: If anyone here wants a StockTickr Pro account, let me know.
CMaoxian: i also plan to talk about stocktickr a bit
6thworld: yeah i dont know enough about stocktickr to use its full potential
CMaoxian: what does the Pro account have that the basic account lacks?
Dave: You get access to a trading journal that computes R-values and expectancies for your trades and…
Dave: you can filter the site based on TradeRank, an algorithm that determines the most profitable watchlists.
CMaoxian: sounds cool, dave, i hadn’t seen that feature
Dave: Here’s a link about the journal
CMaoxian: can someone just pick some crazy screamer that goes up 145% in two days and then their “list” will be the most “profitable”
Zoomie: here is a free scanner…. www.prophet.net It has delayed quotes, BUT, when you hit the scan results, say for gaps, it gives you the real time resultsfor the symbol. Did I explain that well?
CMaoxian: i don’t think of stocktickr as a “scanner” so much as a place to track my picks
6thworld: i’m curious to see how XLE pans out
CMaoxian: it’s also a good place to look at what other people are looking at (for gauging sentiment)
Dave: There might be some scanning features in the future. ;-)
dividend: chairman, may i ask how you use your notable new hi/lo list? do you discard the list at the end of the next day?
CMaoxian: no, div, i keep a rolling list
dividend: oh, so you would check them all at the end or beginning of the day?
CMaoxian: but the current day’s notables also go on top
6thworld: yeah that $VIX is really low, sentiment is pretty optimistic
sfsh: is SHI on your new high list, cm?
CMaoxian: no div, i look at the current day’s list and the rolling list separately
CMaoxian: it’s on the list sfsh but i try to pick the 20 most “notable”
CMaoxian: yes 6th, the sentiment now is pretty darned complacent (which is worrisome)
6thworld: i didnt get your dumb money indicator for the ISE, what makes you say that?
CMaoxian: Dave one thing i was thinking for stocktickr, yet another column to add on, is the float of the stock, that way you could sort picks by float
CMaoxian: ISE publishes a call/put ratio that they call their Sentiment Index (i linked to it at the time) and it’s pretty darned good
Dave: I’ll see if I can get float. Thanks for the suggestion.
6thworld: better than the $VIX
scoot: hey serotta another cyclist
CMaoxian: I thought of that dave because when you look at the huge winners they tend to be super-low-float stuff that would actually be very tough to trade
CMaoxian: different from the VIX, 6th… you should look at these sentiment measures together
Dave: Yeah, I know what you mean - good idea.
serotta33: VIX: dead indicator. Lehman study showed zero predictive value over time except for “extremely” high readings.
CMaoxian: i think it’s useful if you look at “relative VIX” serotta
serotta33: not lately
CMaoxian: in other words don'’t look at absolute values (though they are often useful) but look at relative values instead
serotta33: you got it
6thworld: Dave, i’ve had pretty good success so far with the $VIX
6thworld: I just use it as a guide to dump $$$ into my 401K
CMaoxian: scoot, does Bodisen Biotech have any bid flu connection?
scoot: i’ve never heard of it
CMaoxian: my first chart: Bodisen Biotech (BBC), Weekly

Dave: I’m considering adding charts like this one for StockTickr - any thoughts?
Matti: Hello MaoXian, 1st, I want to let u know that I really enjoy reading your blog. Keep the good authoring…
CMaoxian: thx for reading it, Matti
CMaoxian: yeah i like it dave, can you do a daily instad of intraday?
scoot: they make fertilizer products
Dave: You’d be able to add stocks from a list (your own or someone elses) and compare them using a chart like that.
CMaoxian: i don’t know anything about BBC either, scoot, except that it’s based in China and has gone up a little bit in the last half year
scoot: sounds like snake oil :)
Matti: Any thoughts on CMED? I know that it just came out w/ some additional shares, but what do you hear over there across the Pacific in terms of its potential growth. Can it continue w/ growth at over 50%?
dividend: lots of pharm companies seem to be popping the past few weeks
dividend: biotech stuff.
CMaoxian: I don’t know anything about CMED, Matti, sorry.
scoot: yeah biotechs are hot
CMaoxian: yes, div, biotech has been very strong of late
dividend: my TGEN is just… waterlogged.
dividend: anyone remember a few weeks ago when their HIV news came out?
Dave: looks like a short if it approaches the 50DMA.
CMaoxian: never heard of TGEN but then again most 44 cent stocks are off my radar
roger: Hi C
CMaoxian: hi roger, nice to see you
6thworld: heya rog
tomiko: Maoxian what exchanges do you trade on?
roger: Hello
roger: C Been away for awhile becasue of health problems but now that you have an evening chat I’ll try to stop in..
roger: but still trading almost every day
CMaoxian: I trade on no exchanges at the moment, tomiko
6thworld: so where was your office in London, CM?
tomiko: ok maybe I didn’t frame the question properly, does this mean you are not trading at all?
CMaoxian: Mayfair
CMaoxian: tomiko, i’ve done almost no trading since moving to china
Zoomie: CM, do you have the chinese ETF handy?
CMaoxian: which one?
Zoomie: whichever you feel relevant
dividend: i think he means the adrs, chairman >?<
tomiko: I see. Well don't know if this question is appropriate, but I have been wondering what the effect of the 4/1 split in NTES adr might have
CMaoxian: funny you mention NTES, it's another stock I want to feature
6thworld: tomiko, price could go up or down
serotta33: Maoxian; SINA recently rebounded. any take on this one?
CMaoxian: Netease.com, Weekly

tomiko: it can be a good trader but very volatile
tomiko: often a gapper
6thworld: looking awfully shooting star like
tomiko: thanks 6thworld i never did think of that
roger: sorry what stock were you starting to discuss C?
scoot: yeah shooting stars and double tops
CMaoxian: serotta it has rallied back a bit but there are a lot of folks stuck in that one
6thworld: tomiko: :P
tomiko: lol
CMaoxian: roger i’m just featuring a half dozen very strong china-based stocks
6thworld: NTES is china based?
roger: k thx
CMaoxian: yes 6th
CMaoxian: here’s the weekly chart of Ctrip

roger: Netease.com, Inc., through its subsidiaries and affiliates, operates an interactive online and wireless community in China.
roger: cool
6thworld: well it looks like NTES is gonna test that top
tomiko: hq of ntes is beijing
CMaoxian: Ctrip is based in Shanghai
6thworld: they’re an airline right?
CMaoxian: no 6th they’re like Expedia
Dave: Nice looking chart for CTRP
CMaoxian: The flights I’ve taken around China tend to be packed and I often wonder how many tickets were bought through CTRP
CMaoxian: I read that the top three things rich Chinese people do is swim, golf, and travel
CMaoxian: (sometimes all at once)
dividend: chairman did the chinese have any reaction to the livedoor debacle in japan?
CMaoxian: not that i know of, div
dividend: i see… i keep thinking its strange that the market would crash like that
6thworld: swim? hmm who would’ve thought
CMaoxian: the Chinese are the new “ugly Americans” when it comes to travel (esp. in Asia)
Zoomie: $cyx.x is CBOE China index, for tradestation…..I thought there would be a comon ETF to trade the index…
CMaoxian: Here’s the weekly chart of Focus Media

CMaoxian: they put these flat panel screens everywhere showing ads
CMaoxian: not something i ever encountered in the US (thank god) but it’s very common here in China
CMaoxian: zoomie, there’s the FXI which is the most liquid china ETF
Zoomie: k
CMaoxian: there’s another one from Powershares, i forget the symbol, it ain’t liquid so i don’t look at it
CMaoxian: Liquidity is Destiny
serotta33: well said
CMaoxian: China Life Insurance continues to continue, Weekly Chart

CMaoxian: when i look at the logs for the website a heck of a lot of people are looking for info on LFC… unfortunately i know nothing about it
Bill: :) Oops, how do you get the link to the pictures to open? I click it and my page closes
CMaoxian: all i know is i’m leery of chinese financial companies
CMaoxian: sorry bill, hit ctrl+ the link
Bill: thx
Dave: Hey, C. I started a tag on StockTickr called MaoxianChat:
CMaoxian: cool dave, we can see what duds these picks turn out to be ;-)
chartist36: Hi: What do you think of XLV? Chart looks good?
CMaoxian: i own quite a bit of old XLV so i do look at it, and it looks OK
CMaoxian: the last strong Chinese company i want to feature is Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (SHI), a weekly chart like all the others

chartist36: Thanks my friend, I would like to initiate a position!
Zoomie: XLV looks likea big bottoming formation since 2000
Dave:

Stock to Watch — Level 3 Communications (LVLT)LVLT moved to a new high on nearly 10 times average volume. I’ve posted the monthly chart to give a little perspective about this “new high.”

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Stock to Watch — Denbury Resources (DNR)Denbury moved above round-number $30 to a new high on over twice average volume. (DNR was around $3 a share at the beginning of 2002 before the great Energy Boom began.)

Denbury Resources, Inc. engages in the acquisition, development, operation, and exploration of oil and natural gas properties in the Gulf Coast region of the United States, primarily in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. Denbury Resources was incorporated in 1951 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

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CMaoxian: I thought of that dave because when you look at the huge winners they tend to be super-low-float stuff that would actually be very tough to trade

CMaoxian: different from the VIX, 6th… you should look at these sentiment measures together
Dave: Yeah, I know what you mean - good idea.
serotta33: VIX: dead indicator. Lehman study showed zero predictive value over time except for “extremely” high readings.
CMaoxian: i think it’s useful if you look at “relative VIX” serotta
serotta33: not lately
CMaoxian: in other words don'’t look at absolute values (though they are often useful) but look at relative values instead
serotta33: you got it
6thworld: Dave, i’ve had pretty good success so far with the $VIX
6thworld: I just use it as a guide to dump $$$ into my 401K
CMaoxian: scoot, does Bodisen Biotech have any bid flu connection?
scoot: i’ve never heard of it
CMaoxian: my first chart: Bodisen Biotech (BBC), Weekly

Dave: I’m considering adding- any thoughts?
Matti: Hello MaoXian, 1st, I want to let u know that I really enjoy reading your blog. Keep the good authoring…
CMaoxian: thx for reading it, Matti
CMaoxian: yeah i like it dave, can you do a daily instad of intraday?
scoot: they make fertilizer products
Dave: You’d be able to add stocks from a list (your own or someone elses) and compare them using a chart like that.
CMaoxian: i don’t know anything about BBC either, scoot, except that it’s based in China and has gone up a little bit in the last half year
scoot: sounds like snake oil :)
Matti: Any thoughts on CMED? I know that it just came out w/ some additional shares, but what do you hear over there across the Pacific in terms of its potential growth. Can it continue w/ growth at over 50%?
dividend: lots of pharm companies seem to be popping the past few weeks
dividend: biotech stuff.
CMaoxian: I don’t know anything about CMED, Matti, sorry.
scoot: yeah biotechs are hot
CMaoxian: yes, div, biotech has been very strong of late
dividend: my TGEN is just… waterlogged.
dividend: anyone remember a few weeks ago when their HIV news came out?
Dave: looks like a short if it approaches the 50DMA.
CMaoxian: never heard of TGEN but then again most 44 cent stocks are off my radar
roger: Hi C
CMaoxian: hi roger, nice to see you
6thworld: heya rog
tomiko: Maoxian what exchanges do you trade on?
roger: Hello
roger: C Been away for awhile becasue of health problems but now that you have an evening chat I’ll try to stop in..
roger: but still trading almost every day
CMaoxian: I trade on no exchanges at the moment, tomiko
6thworld: so where was your office in London, CM?
tomiko: ok maybe I didn’t frame the question properly, does this mean you are not trading at all?
CMaoxian: Mayfair
CMaoxian: tomiko, i’ve done almost no trading since moving to china
Zoomie: CM, do you have the chinese ETF handy?
CMaoxian: which one?
Zoomie: whichever you feel relevant
dividend: i think he means the adrs, chairman >?<
tomiko: I see. Well don't know if this question is appropriate, but I have been wondering what the effect of the 4/1 split in NTES adr might have
CMaoxian: funny you mention NTES, it's another stock I want to feature
6thworld: tomiko, price could go up or down
serotta33: Maoxian; SINA recently rebounded. any take on this one?
CMaoxian: Netease.com, Weekly

tomiko: it can be a good trader but very volatile
tomiko: often a gapper
6thworld: looking awfully shooting star like
tomiko: thanks 6thworld i never did think of that
roger: sorry what stock were you starting to discuss C?
scoot: yeah shooting stars and double tops
CMaoxian: serotta it has rallied back a bit but there are a lot of folks stuck in that one
6thworld: tomiko: :P
tomiko: lol
CMaoxian: roger i’m just featuring a half dozen very strong china-based stocks
6thworld: NTES is china based?
roger: k thx
CMaoxian: yes 6th
CMaoxian: here’s the weekly chart of Ctrip

roger: Netease.com, Inc., through its subsidiaries and affiliates, operates an interactive online and wireless community in China.
roger: cool
6thworld: well it looks like NTES is gonna test that top
tomiko: hq of ntes is beijing
CMaoxian: Ctrip is based in Shanghai
6thworld: they’re an airline right?
CMaoxian: no 6th they’re like Expedia
Dave: Nice looking chart for CTRP
CMaoxian: The flights I’ve taken around China tend to be packed and I often wonder how many tickets were bought through CTRP
CMaoxian: I read that the top three things rich Chinese people do is swim, golf, and travel
CMaoxian: (sometimes all at once)
dividend: chairman did the chinese have any reaction to the livedoor debacle in japan?
CMaoxian: not that i know of, div
dividend: i see… i keep thinking its strange that the market would crash like that
6thworld: swim? hmm who would’ve thought
CMaoxian: the Chinese are the new “ugly Americans” when it comes to travel (esp. in Asia)
Zoomie: $cyx.x is CBOE China index, for tradestation…..I thought there would be a comon ETF to trade the index…
CMaoxian: Here’s the weekly chart of Focus Media

CMaoxian: they put these flat panel screens everywhere showing ads
CMaoxian: not something i ever encountered in the US (thank god) but it’s very common here in China
CMaoxian: zoomie, there’s the FXI which is the most liquid china ETF
Zoomie: k
CMaoxian: there’s another one from Powershares, i forget the symbol, it ain’t liquid so i don’t look at it
CMaoxian: Liquidity is Destiny
serotta33: well said
CMaoxian: China Life Insurance continues to continue, Weekly Chart

CMaoxian: when i look at the logs for the website a heck of a lot of people are looking for info on LFC… unfortunately i know nothing about it
Bill:
CMaoxian: cool dave, we can see what duds these picks turn out to be ;-)
chartist36: Hi: What do you think of XLV? Chart looks good?
CMaoxian: i own quite a bit of old XLV so i do look at it, and it looks OK
CMaoxian: the last strong Chinese company i want to feature is Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (SHI), a weekly chart like all the others

chartist36: Thanks my friend, I would like to initiate a position!
Zoomie: XLV looks likea big bottoming formation since 2000

Stock to Watch — Level 3 Communications (LVLT)LVLT moved to a new high on nearly 10 times average volume. I’ve posted the monthly chart to give a little perspective about this “new high.”

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hefeiddd

Stock to Watch — EDGAR Online (EDGR)EDGR moved to a new high on over five times average volume. This stock was at an all-time low fairly recently (August 2004), but has rallied back from the writing about the new Google Finance:

“The one feature I wish Google would layer its awesome search engine on top of is the SEC EDGAR database. It is an incredibly valuable database, it is in the public domain, and Google would do a service to investors by opening this up in a more intuitive, user friendly and free manner. If they do that, Google Finance could get very interesting.”

I share this wish. If Google does start spidering EDGAR and serves the data attractively, EDGR would die a quick death.

EDGAR Online, Inc. provides financial and business information of global companies contained in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The company extracts, processes, and categorizes raw information filed over the Security and Exchange Commission’s Electronic Data Gathering Analysis and Retrieval filing system, and presents it in a user-friendly format. EDGAR was co-founded by Susan Strausberg and Marc Strausberg in 1995. The company is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.

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Stock to Watch — ResMed (RMD)ResMed moved to a new high on nearly three times average volume. I’m a snorer (some say a schnorrer) so my wife has a keen interest in this company’s products.

ResMed, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of equipment for the diagnosis and treatment of sleep-disordered breathing and other respiratory disorders, including obstructive sleep apnea. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Poway, California.

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hefeiddd

Stock to Watch — PW Eagle (PWEI)You may remember I wrote about PWEI while reviewing Top Ten Best Performing Stocks of 2005. Yesterday it moved to a new high above round number $25 after going sideways for several months. The volume wasn’t spectacular but it’s still one to keep an eye on. (PWEI has a 6.8MM share float so anything is possible.)

PW Eagle, Inc. engages in the manufacture and distribution of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipe and fittings, and polyethylene (PE) pipe and tubing products primarily in the United States. The company was formed in 1984 and was formerly known as Eagle Plastics, Inc. and Eagle Pacific Industries, Inc. It changed its name to PW Eagle, Inc. in 2000. PW Eagle is headquartered in Eugene, Oregon.

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Stock to Watch — Clarcor (CLC)Clarcor moved to a new high on over four times average volume.

CLARCOR, Inc. provides filtration products worldwide. It has three segments: Engine/Mobile Filtration, Industrial/Environmental Filtration, and Packaging. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.

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Notable New Highs — March 17, 2006
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March 17, 2006
Stock to Watch — Insteel Industries (IIIN)Insteel has had a huge run since breaking above $20 back in January. Yesterday it reversed viciously on about 10 times average volume, and formed a “shooting star” on the weekly chart. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the stock is doomed, but it’s probably going to go sideways or down for awhile. In other words, its awesome, nearly vertical ascent is likely over. (Note that this puppy has only a 7MM share float.)

Insteel Industries, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiary, Insteel Wire Products Company, engages in the manufacture and marketing of concrete reinforcing products and industrial wire products for construction and industrial applications primarily in the United States. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Mount Airy, North Carolina.

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Notable New Highs — March 16, 2006
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March 16, 2006
It’s Hard for Abstract Nouns to SurrenderWhy Grammar is the First Casualty of War, by Terry Jones
Jones badly confuses the Bahamas and Bermuda, but the spirit of his essay is right.

Words have become devalued, some have changed their meaning, and the philologists can only shake their heads. The first casualty of war is grammar.

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ETF to Watch — Materials SPDR (XLB)The Materials SPDR moved to a new all-time high on over four times average volume. Here are the XLB’s component stocks. Note that Weyerhaeuser, which I featured the other day, and IP, which was discussed in the comments of the WY post, are both prominent members of the XLB.
I bought this back when it was called the Basic Industries SPDR (thus the “B” in the ticker symbol), and have no plans to sell it for at least 30 years. ;-)

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Notable New Highs — March 15, 2006
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March 15, 2006
Launched: July 1992, Circulation: 251,295Bloomberg Markets Magazine Among Top 5 Business Publications for Investment Professionals (Press Release)

In overall rankings including all publications measured in the Erdos & Morgan Professional Investment Community Study of 2005-2006, Bloomberg Markets magazine scored an average issue audience of 34.1%, which ranked 5th in delivering the professional investment community audience behind only The Wall Street Journal (42.7%), The Economist (41.4%), Financial Times (37%) and BusinessWeek (35%).

I used to read this magazine when it was delivered (for free?) to our office in London, but haven’t read it since moving to Beijing. (I have seen it on newsstands in Hongkong, but have never bought it.)
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