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发表于 2009-3-20 14:00
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NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 3:41PM ET / Mar 17 2009 7:41PM GMT
Last Price: 1178.73
A new high into the original resistance range makes the revised count legit. Yet, it keeps the outlook expecting the top of wave-4, OR some other designation to denote a pivotal peak. Again, the downside potential should not be a part of our thinking process unless the 1155.68 level is cleanly broken under.
"Even more so than in the S&P where I just noted difficulty with this action, this is not the kind of action that one would expect to see if indeed an important pivotal peak was already in place. The 15-minute chart now shows an alternate count that is allowing for a fifth-wave up to the 1183/1188 area. Whether this is right or wrong we will only know for sure if trade turns-tail and drops back below the 1155 area in an impulsive manner. In the meantime, there has been no definitive indication that the uptrend has ended, so we remain patient awhile longer.
"Leave it to the NASDAQ to nearly always press projections to the limit, as we just witnessed near the prior peak. Nevertheless, trade has turned back down, and regardless of what we think this market is doing, unless prices drop back under the 1155 area in an impulsive manner we will have no solid evidence that the recent uptrend has changed.
"The count has been adjusted with this action. The buck must stop here or the larger count is wrong.
"A bit deep for a second second-wave, which does leave the count open in that regard. Yet, unless the prior count is wrong a turn back down to at least the 1155 area should be the next order of business.
"Trade has moved back above the 1155.68 level perhaps in a second 1-2 off yesterday’s peak. This morning’s gap is at 1145.44 almost at yesterday’s low. Closing the gap and making a new low thereafter would be a good indication that the trend will continue down. However, convincingly letting go of the 1155.68 first remains the objective.
"Of the three markets the NASDAQ was the only one to have dropped back below its important structural level in this region of 1155.68 yesterday. Yet, first thing this morning trade is right back at it. This action looks like typical retesting of the 1155 area and perhaps the broken trendlines just above there around 1158 and the red one even higher around 1164. The important thing to note is that the count suggests that wave-4 is complete, yet it will require letting go completely of the 1155 area in order to confirm that the count is correct. Down is what is expected, so let’s see if the action can deliver. Trade under 1135 would be a solid confirming action that the downtrend had resumed.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 3:32PM ET / Mar 17 2009 7:32PM GMT
Last Price: 772.08
The 15-minute chart now sports an alternate count that would allow for a new high. Are we going to see one? Hard to say, as the move up is not purely impulsive, nor is it clearly corrective at this juncture. The nearby near to short-term TL has been more deliberately challenged on this immediate leg up, so that may have done it for today’s strength. The 30-minute RSI has finally come back to touch the dead-reckoning level, so perhaps a turn right here is what is on tap. However, at the risk of being monotonously repetitive, the outlook will only begin looking back down once the 750 subdivide is broken under in an impulsive manner.
"We are not seeing the kind of wave action one would expect if prices had reached there upside goal. Whether it is a new found optimism in the Government, or if there is now a view that the Fed god is about to save us all, I have no idea. What I do know is that trade remains above the 750 level and that tells me that odds are just as good that the trend will continue to push to a new high, as fall to new depths. As before, staying above 750 remains a bullish indication. Yet, the count and other expectations suggests this enthusiasm will be short lived. Unless prices are heading south in a hurry and under the 750 mark, looking down will be a tenuous view.
"Trade has turned down away from resistance indicating that wave-ii is likely complete. Staying under yesterday’s peak in one thing, but the real test remains back at the 750.09 level.
"....trade has moved higher in what counts as wave-ii off the existing peak. 768/769 is the resistance area to beat, otherwise expect trade to turn back down toward the 750 level once again.
"Slow action resulting in no resolution concerning the 750 level, tells us that the market has gone into Fed watch mode. What this means is that trade will likely play the shell game around or above the 750 area forcing the average trader to guess what is happening. For us, unless trade is under 750 and moving down in an impulsive manner, we just grab another cup and relax.
"Hardly a surprise to see trade bounce from the 750 mark. This internals suggest a small five-wave decline may now be in place comprising wave-i. Typical swing failure targets for wave-ii would be into the 761/765 area, although second-waves are notorious for retracing further to test the 78.6% level, which in this case is at 769.27, right back at the 768. Just be clear that until the 750 level is broken under and left behind the jury will be out concerning the next meaningful trend. Down is what is expected, but as noted, persistence in holding support atop 750.09 would be a rather bullish statement.
"The count suggests that wave-4 of (5) is complete. Trade merely needs to step off the 750.09 important subdivide and stay under it in order to confirm that to be the case. This is what should be seen if the count is correct. Persistent support around the 750 area however, would caution that the recent bullishness had not run its course, so it is important for the break of 750 to occur in order to confidently pursue the south side potential. With the Fed announcement set for tomorrow there may be a reluctance leave the 750 area. Be patient, as remaining above 750 is every bit as bullish as dropping below this level is bearish. The count predicts down, but we must force a clear commitment here one way or the other to be sure.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 3:19PM ET / Mar 17 2009 7:19PM GMT
Last Price: 7343.5
Back above 7300 alters the immediate view of the action, while the strength in the NASDAQ cautions about whether or not we are working with the proper wave count. The added blue TL just overhead is currently around 7436 straight up. The higher red one stems from much higher and touched the wave (4) peak. We would obviously have to rethink the count if a new high is seen, but that aside, these trendlines if encountered will present a barrier that should be tough to push beyond if indeed further upside is the game. Remain patient here, for unless the Dow is under 7125 the uptrend cannot be said to have run its course, while above this level continues to allow the bulls to roam.
"With the Dow back under 7300 and while that situation exists, the outlook will expect the index to return to the 7197/7125 range. Otherwise, above this level again and we wait for further clarification of the immediate count.
"The internals did need at least one more small wave higher. Keep in mind that we are not interested in taking any action unless the 7125 level is cleanly penetrated.
"Up to test price and technical resistance may have completed wave-ii. The internals are ragged, which could allow this immediate reaction to be only a small fourth-wave within wave-c. Either way, the next meaningful action should be a turn down to revisit the 7197/7125 area.
"The index has bounced in what is likely wave-ii. Important resistance is at 7300/7308. All other parameters remains in place.
"The count and technical indications suggest that wave-4 is complete. What we need to see now is confirmation in terms of price, and that would look like an impulsive break of the 7125 very important long-term projection. The 7197.5 level, which was the 2002 low, has already been penetrated this morning, yet the move down from yesterday’s peak may be about to end a small five-wave decline, potentially ending wave (i) down. If this is the case, then the break of the 7125 level may not be seen right away, as a second-wave bounce could delay that action. In any case, unless 7125 is broken under, confirmation that wave-4 was complete would not have occurred, so a patient approach is still warranted for the conservative minded.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 2:58PM ET / Mar 17 2009 6:58PM GMT
Last Price: 1173.46
Even more so than in the S&P where I just noted difficulty with this action, this is not the kind of action that one would expect to see if indeed an important pivotal peak was already in place. The 15-minute chart now shows an alternate count that is allowing for a fifth-wave up to the 1183/1188 area. Whether this is right or wrong we will only know for sure if trade turns-tail and drops back below the 1155 area in an impulsive manner. In the meantime, there has been no definitive indication that the uptrend has ended, so we remain patient awhile longer.
"Leave it to the NASDAQ to nearly always press projections to the limit, as we just witnessed near the prior peak. Nevertheless, trade has turned back down, and regardless of what we think this market is doing, unless prices drop back under the 1155 area in an impulsive manner we will have no solid evidence that the recent uptrend has changed.
"The count has been adjusted with this action. The buck must stop here or the larger count is wrong.
"A bit deep for a second second-wave, which does leave the count open in that regard. Yet, unless the prior count is wrong a turn back down to at least the 1155 area should be the next order of business.
"Trade has moved back above the 1155.68 level perhaps in a second 1-2 off yesterday’s peak. This morning’s gap is at 1145.44 almost at yesterday’s low. Closing the gap and making a new low thereafter would be a good indication that the trend will continue down. However, convincingly
letting go of the 1155.68 first remains the objective.
"Of the three markets the NASDAQ was the only one to have dropped back below its important structural level in this region of 1155.68 yesterday. Yet, first thing this morning trade is right back at it. This action looks like typical retesting of the 1155 area and perhaps the broken trendlines just above there around 1158 and the red one even higher around 1164. The important thing to note is that the count suggests that wave-4 is complete, yet it will require letting go completely of the 1155 area in order to confirm that the count is correct. Down is what is expected, so let’s see if the action can deliver. Trade under 1135 would be a solid confirming action that the downtrend had resumed.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 2:50PM ET / Mar 17 2009 6:50PM GMT
Last Price: 767.12
We are not seeing the kind of wave action one would expect if prices had reached there upside goal. Whether it is a new found optimism in the Government, or if there is now a view that the Fed god is about to save us all, I have no idea. What I do know is that trade remains above the 750 level and that tells me that odds are just as good that the trend will continue to push to a new high, as fall to new depths. As before, staying above 750 remains a bullish indication. Yet, the count and other expectations suggests this enthusiasm will be short lived. Unless prices are heading south in a hurry and under the 750 mark, looking down will be a tenuous view.
"Trade has turned down away from resistance indicating that wave-ii is likely complete. Staying under yesterday’s peak in one thing, but the real test remains back at the 750.09 level.
"....trade has moved higher in what counts as wave-ii off the existing peak. 768/769 is the resistance area to beat, otherwise expect trade to turn back down toward the 750 level once again.
"Slow action resulting in no resolution concerning the 750 level, tells us that the market has gone into Fed watch mode. What this means is that trade will likely play the shell game around or above the 750 area forcing the average trader to guess what is happening. For us, unless trade is under 750 and moving down in an impulsive manner, we just grab another cup and relax.
"Hardly a surprise to see trade bounce from the 750 mark. This internals suggest a small five-wave decline may now be in place comprising wave-i. Typical swing failure targets for wave-ii would be into the 761/765 area, although second-waves are notorious for retracing further to test the 78.6% level, which in this case is at 769.27, right back at the 768. Just be clear that until the 750 level is broken under and left behind the jury will be out concerning the next meaningful trend. Down is what is expected, but as noted, persistence in holding support atop 750.09 would be a rather bullish statement.
"The count suggests that wave-4 of (5) is complete. Trade merely needs to step off the 750.09 important subdivide and stay under it in order to confirm that to be the case. This is what should be seen if the count is correct. Persistent support around the 750 area however, would caution that the recent bullishness had not run its course, so it is important for the break of 750 to occur in order to confidently pursue the south side potential. With the Fed announcement set for tomorrow there may be a reluctance leave the 750 area. Be patient, as remaining above 750 is every bit as bullish as dropping below this level is bearish. The count predicts down, but we must force a clear commitment here one way or the other to be sure.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
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