Main Trading
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Open discussion on all aspects of day trading and short-term investing.
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TA junkies, this is your forum for talking about technical indicators and chart patterns.
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Brett Steenbarger[*]年龄: 54[*]性别: 男[*]星座： 处女座[*]生肖： 马[*]行业： 教育[*]职业： Psychologist[*]地点: Naperville : IL我的简介Author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003), Enhancing Trader Performance (Wiley, 2006), and The Daily Trading Coach (Wiley, 2009) with an interest in using historical patterns in markets to find a trading edge. I am also interested in performance enhancement among traders, drawing upon research from expert performers in various fields. My email is steenbab @ aol. com (no spaces). Please, no emails soliciting advertising, republication of my posts, or link exchanges. See TraderFeed.com FAQ link.
兴趣[*]Short-term trading of stock index futures喜爱的电影[*]Cruxshadows "Winterborn" video[*]Rammstein "Stripped" video[*]VNV Nation "Legion" video[*]Peter Murphy "Cuts You Up" video[*]Rammstein "Du Hast" video[*]Type O Negative "Black Number One" video[*]Fields of the Nephilim "Love Under Will" video[*]My Morning Jacket video "One Big Holiday"[*]Ferry Corsten video "Watch Out"喜爱的音乐[*]Empire Hideous[*]Assemblage 23[*]Fields of the Nephilim[*]Rammstein[*]Cruxshadows[*]Clan of Xymox[*]Informatik[*]VNV Nation[*]Armin van Buuren[*]Johnny Cash "Hurt"[*]Metallica/Apoptygma Berzerk "Fade to Black"[*]Ministry "Every Day is Halloween"[*]Cure "More Than This"[*]Bush "Mouth (Stingray mix)"[*]Bowie "Wild Is The Wind"[*]Roxy Music "A Song for Europe"[*]Morrissey "Let Me Kiss You"[*]Bruderschaft "Forever"[*]Funker Vogt "Faster Life" (XPQ-21 mix)[*]Snog "Ballad"[*]Neil Young "Hurricane"[*]And Also the Trees "Flatlands"喜爱的书[*]The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand[*]New Pathways in Psychology by Colin Wilson[*]Greatness by Dean Keith Simonton[*]The Road to Excellence by K. Anders Ericsson我的博客群组成员Become Your Own Trading Coach TraderFeed
About Mehttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/_7VHLCUlm_9o/SZg9wk1j19I/AAAAAAAACOo/376mmEUmadE/S220/BRETTPIC.jpg
Brett Steenbarger Author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003), Enhancing Trader Performance (Wiley, 2006), and The Daily Trading Coach (Wiley, 2009) with an interest in using historical patterns in markets to find a trading edge. I am also interested in performance enhancement among traders, drawing upon research from expert performers in various fields. My email is steenbab @ aol. com (no spaces). Please, no emails soliciting advertising, republication of my posts, or link exchanges. See TraderFeed.com FAQ link.
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-------SUCCESSFUL SPECULATION BEGINS WITH OBJECTIVE OBSERVATION-------
Monday, March 23, 2009Stock Market Close Charts 3/23/09
The Nasdaq is up nearly 4% for the year and the financials have erased half of their YTD losses with this months 24.74% rally and they are now down "only" 24% in 2009! I had a great powder day today, but I cannot help but wonder how I would have done if, instead of floating on fresh snow, I was trading. The market will be here after my week off, but today's upside move was enough for me to temporarily wonder...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/ScgPzZD7tYI/AAAAAAAAD4g/vtCu3xXy3HI/s400/032309close.png
Today's trading saw a wobbly start after the large gap higher, but quickly reclaimed VWAP and never looked back. These charts are a great example of why daytrades should generally be done in the direction of the VWAP for the day.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/ScgPwaLJisI/AAAAAAAAD4Y/0BeZQMCZz2w/s400/mondayvwap.png
We have been observing the Volume Weighted Average Price since the gap higher on March 10 and you can see why the average price since "the bottom" remains a key benchmark to observe.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/ScgPrsjpVvI/AAAAAAAAD4Q/zTcaiDi-Pe4/s400/vwapfrmgap.png
P
Volume Weighted Average Price
It is too early to make the call that the bullishness is over with the markets remain above the Volume Weighted Average Prices (VWAP) since the rally began on the 10th (blue horizontal lines), but there are clear reasons to be cautious. Breaking those VWAP levels (which are constantly changing with new data points) would put the average buyer at a loss and give control back to sellers. The uptrend lines, pointed out yesterday, have been broken int he SPY and the XLF and it is looking like the QQQQ and IWM have put in lower highs. Keep a close eye on the XLF, it has lead the market for the last 18 months and its relative weakness is reason to be concerned.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/ScOsoeFnlFI/AAAAAAAAD34/ww7PTFmVLcQ/s400/10MIN.png
Posted by Brian at 3/20/2009 10:40:00 AM
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Self Control
Any fool can criticize, condemn, and complain but it takes character and self control to be understanding and forgiving.
~Dale Carnegie
Posted by Brian at 3/20/2009 06:05:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Thursday, March 19, 2009Stock Market Close 3/19/09
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/ScLyMn1K-VI/AAAAAAAAD3o/GIB2op-dgzE/s400/031909close.png
No video this evening.
Posted by Brian at 3/19/2009 09:32:00 PM
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30 Minute Trendlines
The 30 minute charts below show the magnitude of the recent rallies. A break of the uptrend lines could lead to a more meaningful pullback towards the prior resistance levels.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/ScKSaZc43_I/AAAAAAAAD3g/pbdXhIARPgE/s400/trendlines.png
Posted by Brian at 3/19/2009 02:41:00 PM
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Older Posts
Thursday, March 19, 2009Tiring
Markets seem to be getting tired after yesterday's larger volume move. The trend is still higher and there are 1854 advancing stocks vs 1054 decliners right now, so the short side should be approached cautiously.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/ScJd_jzTY0I/AAAAAAAAD3Y/PRIHDF2HA_o/s400/10minTH.png
Charts Ahead of the Fed
The rising 5 day moving averages show the path of least resistance continues to be higher in the intermediate term. Early short sellers are learning the same lessons that the early buyers below the declining 5 DMAs learned over the last month, it doesn't pay to fight the trend. With the Federal Reserve statement coming at 2:15PM the primary objective should be risk management and making sure you have a strategy to realize long side gains of the last week.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/ScEi3EmG_RI/AAAAAAAAD3I/z0PIoPo_b8c/s400/where.png
Where has the market come from? Large rally of the last week has not seen any real profit taking.
Where does it have the potential to go before it is likely to meet a source of supply which may slow the ascent? Current levels have been important support/resistance recently.
"Mom Trade" CLOSED
For those who have been following along, this trade has been closed.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/Sb_7pkWn7DI/AAAAAAAAD2w/ywWoXnt39C8/s400/MomTrade.png
Posted by Brian at 3/17/2009 03:35:00 PM
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Short Squeeze Coming in SNDA?
I'm long a little.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/Sb_MRr51mvI/AAAAAAAAD2g/ZGE2cRNd888/s400/SNDAvwapshort.png
Posted by Brian at 3/17/2009 12:13:00 PM
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Newer Posts Older Posts Home
Tuesday, March 17, 2009Quiet Consolidation
The markets are digesting the gains of the last week above the rising 5 day moving averages (orange line). The blue lines on the charts below are the VWAPs since the uptrends began one week ago today. The average price from the rally is a key intermediate term psychological level as it represents the average price for longs and shorts for that period of time. Holding above VWAPs could get shorts to reconsider their bets and cover which would entice more sidelined cash to the long side. Falling below VWAP may cause shorts to get more aggressive as they realize they have won back control of the trend and further pressure would be added as longs liquidate. The trends on longer timeframes are still lower so odds favor a failure but the message isn't clear enough at this point to be aggressive either way. When there is no clear edge, cash is a position if you are not skilled enough to scalp on shorter term timeframes.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/Sb_C4gy78XI/AAAAAAAAD2Y/q8nZj3WtTYg/s400/vwapMOVEalphatrends.png
Posted by Brian at 3/17/2009 11:23:00 AM
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Luck of the Irish
Never iron a four-leaf clover, because you don't want to press your luck.
~Unknown
If you're enough lucky to be Irish, you're lucky enough!
~Irish Saying
Posted by Brian at 3/17/2009 05:39:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Monday, March 16, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 3/16/09
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Posted by Brian at 3/16/2009 04:23:00 PM
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Retracement Levels
The financials led the market lower and now they are experiencing the strongest bounce from the lows. The XLF is at the 61.8% retracement level and at the area of prior support, now is the time to be very defensive with longs, this is where we have POTENTIAL for resistance to be found. The short term momentum is too strong to short, but but in the interest of maintaining a strong defensive position I had my Mom cancel the stop that was in place at 2830 and instead sell that part of the position at 28.80 to lock in a gain of $2.10. She is still holding 25% of the original position which was purchased at 2670.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/Sb6Htn43nJI/AAAAAAAAD2I/Zd0PQ8WZo_Y/s400/30min.png
Posted by Brian at 3/16/2009 01:01:00 PM
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Uptrends Remain Intact
The short term uptrends remain intact but they are quite extended at these levels, be sure to have a plan in place to lock in profits. I told my Mom to put a stop on half the remaining balance at 28.30 in the QQQQ, if stopped out she will have 25% of the original position from 26.70
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/Sb5oKL7yspI/AAAAAAAAD2A/ts3yKi3nSnk/s400/uptrendsintact.png
Posted by Brian at 3/16/2009 10:53:00 AM
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Mathematical or Intuitive
There are two types of minds - the mathematical, and what might be called the intuitive. The former arrives at its views slowly, but they are firm and rigid; the latter is endowed with greater flexibility and applies itself simultaneously to the dive.
~Blaise Pascal
Posted by Brian at 3/16/2009 06:19:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Sunday, March 15, 2009Stock Market Analysis Video 3/15/09
Here is the video of tonight's live session. I will be working to get the audio perfected for future events.
Stock Market Live Analysis 031509 from brian shannon on Vimeo.
Posted by Brian at 3/15/2009 10:34:00 PM
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Friday, March 13, 2009Stock Market Video Analysis 3/13/09
I will be doing a live event again this Sunday March 15 at 8PM Eastern you can REGISTER HERE Last Sunday's event did fill up so be sure to register early. Once again, NO EMAILS if there is a stock (ONLY ONE PER PERSON) you would like me to look at, twitter requests ONLY, thanks. I built a cool little recording booth today which should make recording and uploading the event easier than it has been.
I got the idea for this recording technique from the place my son and I have been taking guitar lessons together. If you are musician JAMSPACEUSA is a great resource for lessons, recording or jamming in a studio environment. I wish their website was better at showing all the cool stuff they offer, but who am I to criticize a website, I'm still using blogger!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/Sbq9u9lAItI/AAAAAAAAD14/nnyQgrwwC68/s400/031309close.png
Have a great weekend.
Posted by Brian at 3/13/2009 04:11:00 PM
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Time To Digest?
It is looking like we could be in for a choppy session as the market digest the recent large gains.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SbpyWSEPtyI/AAAAAAAAD1w/5L4mKd0nUFk/s400/30minfri.png
Posted by Brian at 3/13/2009 10:48:00 AM
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Thursday, March 12, 2009Stock Market Video Analysis 3/12/09
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Stock Market Trend Analysis 3/12/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.
Posted by Brian at 3/12/2009 04:19:00 PM
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Mom Out of Half
We remain in a bear market and it is prudent to realize profits on long positions.
Here was THE ENTRY for this trade.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SblPmQLGaXI/AAAAAAAAD1g/UrlGxa0As2s/s400/MOMouthalf.png
Posted by Brian at 3/12/2009 02:07:00 PM
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Textbook Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern
The Russell 2000 (IWM) has broken the downtrend line which has been intact since Feb 6. At the same time it has completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern with price now at the important neckline. A move above the neckline would project a continued rally equal to the height of the head to the neckline (blue arrows) near 41. The 41.00 level is also an approximate 50% retracement of the decline from Feb 6 high to the recent low. Also shown on the chart are the 5 day MA (red) 10 DMA (blue) and 20 DMA (greeen). The primary trend remains lower so be sure to protect profits and let the market action dictate how long to hold. Be prepared for anything.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/Sbk3cN8Zq9I/AAAAAAAAD1Y/4pbqnZBPu3c/s400/IWM.png
Posted by Brian at 3/12/2009 12:25:00 PM
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3 Day VWAPs Held
The VWAP from the move which began on Tuesday held as support and now the markets are back up to key levels of prior support. Mom's stop on QQQQ is now at 27.42 which would lock in approximately one dollar from entry.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SbkdyMiO5DI/AAAAAAAAD1I/zEYsvSqDe3Y/s400/30minth.png
Posted by Brian at 3/12/2009 10:35:00 AM
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The Battle Rages On
You have to be prepared for all scenarios.
Posted by Brian at 3/12/2009 08:48:00 AM
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Obstacles
Obstacles are things a person sees when he takes his eyes off his goal.
~E. Joseph Cossman
Posted by Brian at 3/12/2009 05:58:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Wednesday, March 11, 2009Stock Market Video Analysis 3/11/09
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/Sbgd8y6dFTI/AAAAAAAAD04/rNnaWbId67g/s400/031109close.png
The chart below is of the SPY, everything in the yellow box is completely made up. It is not a prediction, just a scary (if you aren't prepared for it) scenario that could occur. As mentioned in the video, I have small long exposure, but I am not comfortable being long in a bear market.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SbghJ62Au9I/AAAAAAAAD1A/Az9RUqrNKoI/s400/love2see.png
Stock Market Video Analysis 3/11/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.
Posted by Brian at 3/11/2009 04:23:00 PM
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Digesting Gains
I am not expecting big direction in the broad markets as they digest yesterday's gains at key levels. Breadth remains strong with 2061 Advancers and 869 Decliners. A slight pullback would be welcome.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SbfUoPlxHvI/AAAAAAAAD0w/j9iVpizoXyk/s400/slowtrade.png
Posted by Brian at 3/11/2009 11:09:00 AM
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Tuesday, March 10, 2009Video of Live Recording
still working on recording/ upload issues for longer videos. There is a gap of a few minutes between the first and second videos.
Live Analysis 3/10/09 Pt 1 from brian shannon on Vimeo.
Live Analysis 3/10/09 Part 2 from brian shannon on Vimeo.
Posted by Brian at 3/10/2009 10:53:00 PM
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Stock Market Video Analysis 3/10/09
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SbbNQn1VB2I/AAAAAAAAD0g/_Jhc5s6TLlw/s400/031009close.png
At 9:00 PM Eastern, I will be doing a live 30 minute deeper look at the markets with ideas which look poised for movement, you can REGISTER HERE If you have any technical difficulties I will be unable to help you. The last session filled up, it is first come, first served. I will also take a look at the first 5 reader ideas that are sent to me via twitter, no emails please.
Make sure your screen is optimized for viewing with THIS FREE TOOL
****IF YOU SIGNED UP BEFORE 4:50pm EASTERN THE DATE WAS WRONG ON THE CONFIRMATION, YOU SHOULD RECEIVE A NEW SIGNUP LINK, IF NOT PLEASE RE-REGISTER, JUST GETTING USED TO THIS....****
Posted by Brian at 3/10/2009 04:32:00 PM
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5 Day MAs
are now flat to turning higher, see circles on charts below. The steep downtrends have been broken and today's volume gives us reason to be CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC over the next few days. If this rally is to turn into a larger bear market rally we will want to see the 5 DMAs hold as support. There are still many levels of potential resistance close by so be careful not to chase.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/Sbarbtq2YHI/AAAAAAAAD0Y/eUpkeEq-0C8/s400/5dayup.png
Posted by Brian at 3/10/2009 02:01:00 PM
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Excellent Volume Pattern
so far today. The markets are getting a little extended short term but the pattern remains bullish. Mom's stop is now break even.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SbaRH7hKbXI/AAAAAAAAD0Q/BAu3_sHgowM/s400/volumepattern.png
Posted by Brian at 3/10/2009 12:09:00 PM
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Impressive
Volume is confirming this move, it could be the start of something bigger... but we are still in a bear market.
I told my Mom to buy and her stop is below the low of the day.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SbZ0tDH0g9I/AAAAAAAAD0I/HXmGAf9PbFI/s400/stepback.png
Posted by Brian at 3/10/2009 10:09:00 AM
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The Abyss
If you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.
~Friedrich Nietzsche
Posted by Brian at 3/10/2009 06:53:00 AM
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Labels: quotes
Monday, March 09, 2009Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 3/9/09
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Posted by Brian at 3/09/2009 04:17:00 PM
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Need to Hold Here
The initial rally fell short of the declining 5 DMA and now if these markets are going to rally they will need to hold that higher low. Tight stops on longs.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_r_4bas-lh0U/SbU54BpVGFI/AAAAAAAADz4/4hqCP8K1Z_o/s400/rejected.png
Posted by Brian at 3/09/2009 11:44:00 AM
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