原帖由 liza012 于 2007-12-28 00:11 发表 http://bbs.macd.cn/static/image/common/back.gif
这2个图的差别说明的是什么? 是水分? 那水分是什么? 是 假象? 或直说是错误?
和上的图去掉了那些假象, 很真实. 不过现在看来 数据好象也是缺一些新的票,
很多是占很大分量的, 能不能看做也不完美? :*18*:
也许出于技术上的原因, 目前也只能这样来做取舍?
比较客观的说法可能是说两个不同的市场。一个是一般的交易者，用基本等量的钱在那里买卖不同的股票所看到的市场。另一个是以股票市值总和表现的市场（上证指数）。当然，还可以有以股票流通值总和表现的市场（沪深综合指数）。
多谢啦! 不过我看不懂了. 等明年我再好好去查查弄弄清楚.
07年股市谢幕！过上两天接着搞08年的:*29*:
2007 年，上证指数涨 96%. 市场平均涨 164%. 市场平均的涨幅和深成指的 166% 相当。或许可以用成指来代替市场平均（指数）。
12/28/2007: 关门一点红。:*26*:
Day Price Change
0 276.55 -0.23%
1 277.20 1.35%
2 273.50 1.56%
3 269.31 0.93%
4 266.83 1.48%
留爪,2007年就这么过去了:)
这是2007基金一年的表现。基金平均年回报 28.4%。最好的红利ETF 和华夏大盘分别是 293% 和 228%。
序号基金代码
基金名称
期初单位净值（元）
期末单位净值（元）
净值增长率（%）
累计净值（元）
293510880红利ETF1.1934.686292.794.68631160305华夏大盘2.2427.353227.967.53310159901深100ETF1.9545.441178.455.56132160307华夏红利1.1613.134169.933.967147162408华宝收益1.46193.9187168.053.9187191163603光大红利1.53784.0393162.664.1793197163704上投先锋1.28193.303157.663.303186163403兴业全球1.4233.6106153.733.610619160110南方绩优1.21143.0251149.713.025111159902中小板1.1942.972148.912.972292510180180ETF4.81611.935147.8111.98194163701上投优势2.32815.7351146.346.285139160402华安A股1.8824.54141.234.91195163702上投α2.7016.4854140.116.5254148162409华宝先进1.19482.8635139.662.863547160505博时主题1.07772.569138.374.0329151005050ETF1.7644.184137.185.02516160106南方高增1.24562.9442136.363.8482165162703广发小盘1.31023.0469132.554.206934160310华夏优势1.1172.574130.432.694222165402汇丰龙腾1.31783.0268129.683.026841160406华安宏利1.39773.1987128.853.588764160705嘉实服务1.9334.36125.554.48110161609融通动力1.2372.77123.922.87137162204荷银精选2.54645.576118.975.64691161106易基价值1.4593.1722117.423.3522249184710基金隆元1.95214.2306116.724.4306298519008添富优势2.4855.2834112.615.713488161102易基策略2.4695.248112.555.958318519692交银成长1.33122.8189111.752.998958160610鹏华动力0.9992.113111.512.113167162706广发优选1.45623.0555109.823.3855311519100长盛1001.09452.2958109.752.335861160702嘉实增长2.2754.7321085.073317519690交银稳健1.51983.145106.933.195225165502信诚精萃1.15192.3682105.592.488253160601鹏华成长1.94313.969104.264.119188163502天治品质1.57163.1969103.413.5569161162609景内需贰1.5113.042101.323.042228165802东吴动力1.0652.1429101.212.2429164162702广发稳健1.16522.343101.083.66378160904大成精选1.03382.027996.153.4284217164804工银成长1.02171.992595.011.9925252184713基金科翔2.64565.081292.065.9712140162208荷银首选1.08862.063889.582.1138276500011基金金鑫1.61293.05289.223.524229166001中欧趋势0.99921.847284.861.8472241184700基金鸿飞1.8553.408683.753.738615160105南方积配1.12392.062683.523.1176230166101信达领先0.99461.823683.351.8236232184689基金普惠2.01473.689283.114.7332253184718基金兴安2.16793.966182.944.453187161101易基平稳1.0661.94382.273.153150162501德盛稳健1.6993.08481.513.204271500006基金裕阳2.01943.633179.95.2701183163302巨田资源1.20832.163379.033.3983287500038基金通乾1.73713.097778.323.7507212164503富国潜力1.00051.782778.181.7827270500005基金汉盛2.05983.644276.924.7118267500001基金金泰2.09483.679775.654.6847126161903万家公用1.05631.853475.462.5834235184692基金裕隆2.0273.552275.244.711269160710嘉实策略1.0111.7775.071.77251184712基金科汇2.65884.651374.935.9088152162503德盛安心1.1041.92774.542.197118161709招商价值1.00041.744974.421.744923160203国泰精选1.9753.43974.124.271154162505德盛优势1.0081.73872.421.738157162604景顺增长2.8364.87171.755.561278500015基金汉兴1.51772.584270.273.0758257184722基金久嘉2.32623.926768.84.5667306519029华夏稳增1.3332.24268.192.94721160201国泰金鹰2.1843.66767.94.43196163703上投双息1.36022.283667.882.6416236184693基金普丰1.83473.036565.53.7925234184691基金景宏2.03533.367565.454.6575273500008基金兴华2.18653.599164.65.4981100161303宝盈策略1.00151.647564.51.8475281500018基金兴和1.86523.048963.463.9879272500007基金景阳2.3343.786662.234.980693161108易基成长11.613761.371.6737204163903中海能源1.00051.613361.241.6933325590001中邮股票1.31512.113460.73.243414160103南方避险1.72332.744859.273.2388309519068添富焦点1.00071.593859.261.7438245184705基金裕泽2.12183.374859.054.414842160407华安成长1.00321.590358.522.9052240184699基金同盛1.81912.86357.383.8255221165401汇丰20161.43492.255857.22.3558211164502国富弹性1.50122.343456.13.0534248184709基金安久2.0163.133755.443.3537133162102金鹰小盘1.03371.604355.192.2243289500056基金科瑞2.37233.669854.694.4618242184701基金景福1.94212.99654.263.62268500002基金泰和2.16973.339653.915.1296254184719基金融鑫2.30173.522653.044.3054198163705上投内需1.00011.521752.151.5217174162904泰信优质1.08291.626850.222.1268284500025基金汉鼎1.77722.64949.053.1535231184688基金开元2.07933.095348.865.3543223165403汇丰策略11.485448.541.4854233184690基金同益1.95962.905648.274.9096269500003基金安信2.19573.244347.755.326326160207国泰金鹿1.1111.64147.71.666300519013海富优势1.3481.98747.42.443288500039基金同德2.09823.087947.164.1649122161806银华优质1.57422.313746.973.5137106161604融通1001.3381.96546.863.135226165701诺德价值11.45545.51.45559160611鹏华治理1.0061.44944.031.449239184698基金天元2.21143.152342.544.8073246184706基金天华1.75552.486841.652.9868328630001华商领先1.00121.410840.911.5158237184695基金景博1.68012.348739.792.9067256184721基金丰和2.07312.881138.974.0591258184728基金鸿阳1.76432.4538.863.0315109161607融通巨潮1.2991.80138.643.231238184696基金裕华2.09732.907338.623.5576301519015海富贰号1.0071.39638.621.396274500009基金安顺2.1943.039538.534.7475180163203诺安股票1.04051.421936.653.30548150001瑞福进取1.0161.38436.221.384275500010基金金元2.30383.09334.253.374113161702招商平衡1.63062.187534.152.802585161005富国天惠1.57312.097733.343.2977250184711基金普华1.68112.240433.262.4064149162410华宝精选1.00041.324732.411.3247220010国泰金牛0.9991.31231.331.362169162801经典配置1.82032.369830.183.3698102161502银河收益1.30121.693830.171.9938214164604友邦成长0.99551.292729.851.292792161107易策二号1.4721.90229.213.417162162610景顺蓝筹0.9981.28528.751.285244184703基金金盛2.21082.821827.634.5976324560003益民优势1.00211.276327.361.296328160301华夏成长1.7532.21126.123.392247184708基金兴科2.17022.736626.092.8376146162405华宝策略1.77392.230725.754.3507119161801银华优势1.11961.396824.753.0168259184738基金通宝1.84362.288824.142.638897161205国投创新1.30141.613623.982.9256158162605景顺鼎益1.3121.60722.483.597138162205荷银预算1.45811.773921.652.2489168162707广发大盘0.99931.213821.461.2138184163401兴业转基1.23231.487520.72.731563160704嘉实债券1.0671.28520.431.63574160805长盛同智1.60361.925620.072.8358145162404华宝动力2.16142.583919.543.6639170162803中信红利2.21722.644819.284.0448277500013基金安瑞1.76162.119.22.56302519017大成成长1.56381.85618.682.558192163604光大增长1.38271.636318.342.9163177163103新动力1.20731.427818.263.4824260200008长城品牌1.00681.185917.781.1859144162403宝康债券1.09421.285717.51.55579150002大成优选1.0161.19317.421.21325160205国泰金象1.2181.4317.41.43290500058基金银丰1.8182.13417.383.694208164103华富成长1.00131.175317.371.4653282500019基金普润2.07672.420316.542.8203134162201合丰成长1.89732.208916.423.2889220165304建信优化1.01021.172816.091.7228320519993长信增利1.1471.3306162.5696117161708招商安本1.04911.212515.571.2575255184720基金久富2.36082.71314.912.713265481006工银红利1.00091.145514.441.165572160802长盛债券1.13691.300514.391.8905286500035基金汉博2.11742.409913.812.6431199163801中银中国1.92242.182313.513.352368160709嘉实主题1.5581.75912.92.924107161605融通蓝筹1.6791.89512.863.025315519666银河银信1.00011.120312.011.1403207164101华富优选1.10791.237511.693.0078266485105工银强债1.00021.11111.071.131121161803银华881.23191.363710.693.1637326590002中邮成长1.03771.142610.11.1426319519694交银蓝筹1.00481.10389.851.1038182163301巨田基础1.14581.25289.332.7978105161603融通债券1.0651.1639.21.33882161002富国天利1.14891.25389.131.7438323560002益民红利成长1.11931.22089.062.484129160302华夏债券1.0391.1318.851.3816110029易方达科讯2.54492.76418.614.8491181163205诺安价值1.15081.24898.522.1939285500029基金科讯2.34982.54498.34.629917160108南方多利1.00651.0888.091.116146160504博时精选2.01872.18128.043.5712114161703招商债券1.04091.12377.951.3602141162209荷银市值1.00551.07957.351.0795120161802银华保本1.16311.24547.071.24547121007瑞福优先1.0021.076.781.0727160208国泰金鹏1.261.3456.742.2348160506博时稳定1.00081.0686.711.106123161807银华富裕1.17551.25396.662.1889327620001宝石动力保本0.99951.06526.571.065284161004富国天瑞2.14872.2816.153.45162160703嘉实稳健1.3141.395.783.577218165301建信价值1.54991.63555.522.6797193163605光大优势1.0071.06155.411.0615263320004诺安优化债券1.00271.05675.381.086354160602鹏华债券1.0461.0984.971.227171162804中信双利1.03231.08344.951.250476160902大成债券1.03161.07934.621.3088313519300大成3001.68671.76244.483.082456160605鹏华502.1432.2314.13.76170160711嘉实优质1.0021.0353.291.932279500016基金裕元2.00122.06153.012.9005219165303建信成长1.34181.38032.862.8303173162903泰信双息1.00061.02552.481.049818160109南稳贰号1.42081.45382.323.0897127162001长城久恒1.6751.7081.972.818176163102盛利配置1.08551.10331.631.803336160312华夏复兴11.0161.61.016304519019大成景阳3.6943.741.243.74314519519友邦增利1.0041.01631.221.03335110007易基收益1.00061.01121.051.042867160708嘉实短债1.00041.00770.721.0512203163902中海分红1.05841.06110.252.461140160404华安宝利1.1531.15303.393243184702基金同智1.55011.5499-0.022.2424310519087世纪分红1.61041.6027-0.482.7937206164003东方精选1.24821.2286-1.583.9263128162002长城久泰2.00611.9613-2.244.8213312519181万家和谐1.09341.0649-2.612.1362178163105新经济1.05771.027-2.912.358922160202国泰债券1.1241.082-3.741.24549160507博时平衡1.3231.272-3.862.333296519005海富股票1.0681.026-3.942.97530160303华夏回报1.4671.404-4.33.37599161302宝盈区域1.10031.0514-4.453.0195262202801南方全球1.0010.952-4.90.95260160701嘉实成长1.96751.8668-5.123.4186305519021金鼎价值1.5211.442-5.22.087201163804中银收益1.14661.0799-5.822.2599321519995长信金利1.32921.2474-6.163.3517130162005长城回报1.12791.0569-6.32.689394161201国投融华1.59321.4914-6.392.343473160803长盛精选1.76831.6482-6.83.348279160908大成20201.0891.01-7.262.832116161706招商成长2.02931.8817-7.283.792160162608景顺成长1.5671.446-7.732.79686161007富国天合1.17151.0676-8.872.4471297519007海富回报1.1251.018-9.522.514224165501信诚四季1.31431.1808-10.162.2738172162902泰信先行1.08310.9723-10.233.1948200163803中银增长1.31061.1739-10.443.416210164501国富收益1.45531.2995-10.712.547833160308华回报二1.3921.242-10.782.489159162607景顺资源1.3071.166-10.793.127141华夏全球1.0090.889-11.90.889125161902万家债券1.15981.0147-12.521.4514227165801东吴嘉禾1.20121.0506-12.542.7706470012嘉实海外0.9990.87-12.920.87264377016上投亚太1.0060.876-12.930.876143162402宝康配置2.23681.9349-13.53.4749131162006长城久富2.11611.8242-13.83.705202163901中海成长1.10020.9462-143.2452216164803工银平衡1.33131.1442-14.062.4941283500021基金金鼎1.72181.4686-14.712.262696161203国投核心1.55331.324-14.772.76412160101南方稳健2.04611.7436-14.793.4886135162202合丰周期2.30661.9627-14.913.4377205164001东方龙1.29931.1002-15.332.8617115161704招商先锋1.26041.0497-16.722.9997190163601量化核心1.82881.5089-17.53.452689161103易基501.78971.4722-17.753.3222280500017基金景业1.81181.4813-18.251.8813189163503天治核心1.13870.9296-18.372.8239163162701广发聚富1.99731.6195-18.923.929513160102南方宝元1.53331.2367-19.352.4064156162603景顺平衡1.28561.0089-21.533.2989132162101金鹰优选1.42911.1074-22.522.810365160706嘉实3001.7321.334-22.983.20266160707嘉实保本1.3011-23.141.89790161105易基积极2.23851.7152-23.384.9626153162504德盛精选1.7411.319-24.243.331108161606融通行业1.7981.361-24.313.30157160607鹏华价值1.4411.087-24.573.32381161001富国天源1.68881.2724-24.662.533101161501银河稳健1.99151.5004-24.663.3054316519688交银精选1.91981.4384-25.083.3742151162502德盛小盘1.5011.123-25.193.25383161003富国天益1.5291.1423-25.34.1536139162207荷银效率1.37751.0214-25.862.4566142162401宝康消费2.17661.6123-25.933.3745160502博时裕富1.9161.418-263.398136162203合丰稳定2.30871.6897-26.823.1897155162601景顺股票2.3361.7093-26.833.5250160508博价值贰1.3770.995-27.752.45209164201天弘精选1.30580.9342-28.462.5001124161901万家1801.72911.2369-28.473.5269303519018添富均衡1.5281.0923-28.523.0373175163101盛利精选1.67871.1937-28.92.7657320011国泰3001.4271.003-29.721.43698161301宝盈鸿利1.97961.3836-30.113.023651160509博时产业2.1741.509-30.593.338322519997长信银利1.54891.0747-30.622.9947129162004长城消费1.55171.0748-30.742.514877160903大成蓝筹1.67441.1506-31.293.7206294519001银华优选2.30131.5794-31.375.3256295519003海富收益1.6321.077-34.012.692213164601友邦盛世1.56051.0118-35.173.423235160311华夏蓝筹2.211.422-35.664.02755160603鹏华收益1.6661.056-36.623.50271160801长盛平衡1.8931.173-38.043.017103161503银河银泰1.84791.1265-39.043.6665187163501天治财富1.67811.0073-39.982.5526104161601新蓝筹1.83051.0745-41.313.369580160910大成创新2.3041.33-42.282.541111161610融通领先2.621.512-42.33.893185163402兴业趋势2.40841.3531-43.826.0234112161701招商股票1.94581.0727-44.883.686724160204国泰金马21.074-46.34.414299519011海富精选2.05011.0518-48.74.3666215164801工银价值2.14731.1002-48.774.394395161202国投景气2.01521.0085-49.962.977538160401华安创新2.0110.997-50.434.514166162705广发聚丰2.1541.0439-51.545.552144160501博时增长2.1571.044-51.63.546179163201诺安平衡1.98130.9522-51.953.212275160901大成价值2.09781.0014-52.273.6614307519035富国天博2.40991.1324-53.023.720920160111南方成份3.21321.4411-55.161.441143160408华安优选2.42681.0517-56.672.58852160510博时新兴2.941.124-61.774.217308519039长盛同德2.97671.0953-63.213.138637160314华夏行业3.6021.012-71.914.477261202007南方隆元3.99591.057-73.551.057
新年快乐！所有人！！:*22*:
单看07年一年我的增长率是300多，所持股061229收盘14.5，今天47.6。不过红利ETF管理的资金有11.77亿份，我的只有它的一个零头，从这个角度看，我对自己不满意。总结原因，找到好股，一持到底是成因；但基本没有做差价，是导致收益不能更高。但差价如果每次都以卖在最高、买在最低的期望来的话，肯定结果会把自己搞乱，连现有的结果都达不到。该有个均衡一点的方法。兄台有什么好建议吗？
[ 本帖最后由 无聊嘛 于 2007-12-28 23:57 编辑 ]
原帖由 无聊嘛 于 2007-12-28 23:56 发表 http://bbs.macd.cn/static/image/common/back.gif
单看07年一年我的增长率是300多，所持股061229收盘14.5，今天47.6。不过红利ETF管理的资金有11.77亿份，我的只有它的一个零头，从这个角度看，我对自己不满意。总结原因，找到好股，一持到底是成因；但基本没有做差价，是导致收益不能更高。但差价如果每次都以卖在最高、买在最低的期望来的话，肯定结果会把自己搞乱，连现有的结果都达不到。该有个均衡一点的方法。兄台有什么好建议吗？
老和尚要得到市场回报，不能只持一个股票。捏着一大堆股票。增长200多点，比市场平均多40。做差价是件好说不好做的事，所谓没有免费的午餐。
原帖由 无聊嘛 于 2007-12-28 23:56 发表 http://bbs.macd.cn/static/image/common/back.gif
061229收盘14.5，今天47.6。
这是什么股票，怎么查不到？
030002
要找一种更好的期望效用...
原帖由 无聊嘛 于 2007-12-29 01:25 发表 http://bbs.macd.cn/static/image/common/back.gif
要找一种更好的期望效用.
其实都归结到怎么在小偏差的预期下看将来。老和尚倾向于认为对单个股票的预期偏差大，用很多个股票可以稳定那个偏差。
嗯，现在我若要分析中短线，也是先从大盘和板块、个股群落下手。正确率可以较高，但要常年这样，人吃不消，不经义的来一次错误就可能连续放大到麻烦。我想的是，怎样减少少看将来（单指中短期的），类似于套利，但不是一回事。
[ 本帖最后由 无聊嘛 于 2007-12-29 02:30 编辑 ]
原帖由 无聊嘛 于 2007-12-29 02:29 发表 http://bbs.macd.cn/static/image/common/back.gif
现在我若要分析中短线，也是先从大盘和板块、个股群落下手。正确率可以较高，但要常年这样，人吃不消，不经义的来一次错误就可能连续放大到麻烦。我想的是，怎样减少少看将来（单指中短期的），类似于套利，但不是一回事
我大致就在解你说的后面的问题，即当股票池定下来后，怎么去获得小偏差的回报。
啊，我有点明白了...，当个股间有个相对稳定的差异？
原帖由 无聊嘛 于 2007-12-29 03:52 发表 http://bbs.macd.cn/static/image/common/back.gif
当个股间有个相对稳定的差异？
至少当平均持有池子里每一个股票的时候，就产生了一个市场平均指数。
那么，如果我猜对了，在BETA出现意外变化时，嗯，比如类似于LTCM那时侯的事，就是不是缩小，反而更加拉大了，（我猜，这在A股中，可能碰到的概率不低）这样，最后的中和效果能否超过买进＋持有呢？或是用一个相当大的组合去减少这个问题？但组合太大了，又带来新问题，整体持有期内的收益相对较少品种持有的策略，降低太多了？
[ 本帖最后由 无聊嘛 于 2007-12-29 06:03 编辑 ]
原帖由 无聊嘛 于 2007-12-29 05:59 发表 http://bbs.macd.cn/static/image/common/back.gif
那么，如果我猜对了，在BETA出现意外变化时，嗯，比如类似于LTCM那时侯的事，就是不是缩小，反而更加拉大了，（我猜，这在A股中，可能碰到的概率不低）这样，最后的中和效果能否超过买进＋持有呢？或是用一个相当大的组合去减少这个问题？但组合太大了，又带来新问题，整体持有期内的收益相对较少品种持有的策略，降低太多了？
当出现 LTCM 的情况，小概率事件的控制机制必须起作用。这是一个博弈问题。买进＋持有构成一个指数或零检验。要超过它的话，则是交易系统的问题了。我的系统在过去两年多的时间里，都是在市场平均指数之上，而且 beta 小于一。
原帖由 无聊嘛 于 2007-12-29 05:59 发表 http://bbs.macd.cn/static/image/common/back.gif
用一个相当大的组合去减少这个问题？但组合太大了，又带来新问题，整体持有期内的收益相对较少品种持有的策略，降低太多了？
品种少了，结果容易不稳定，容易大起大落。那家美国投资公司，得意了三十年，一朝翻船，也是有例可查。品种多了，回报自然要小些。这个问题，大概谁也避免不了吧。